European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>January saw post year-end normalisation, with selective convergence resuming while the median voting premium remained stable, confirming no systemic repricing of control across Europe’s dual-class universe.</li>
<li>Liquidity and structure drove outcomes, with convergence working in scalable, index-exposed pairs, while a small number of structurally constrained names continued to dominate dispersion.</li>
<li>Opportunities remain selective into 2026, favouring liquidity-driven convergence and balance-sheet normalisation, while extreme Nordic dislocations persist as high-dispersion, structurally constrained trades.</li>
</ul>


January saw post year-end normalisation, with selective convergence resuming while the median voting premium remained stable, confirming no systemic repricing of control across Europe’s dual-class universe.
Liquidity and structure drove outcomes, with convergence working in scalable, index-exposed pairs, while a small number of structurally constrained names continued to dominate dispersion.
Opportunities remain selective into 2026, favouring liquidity-driven convergence and balance-sheet normalisation, while extreme Nordic dislocations persist as high-dispersion, structurally constrained trades.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: January '26 Report

<ul>
<li>Dual-Class spreads tightened in November, with convergence trades resurfacing as volatility falls and liquidity normalises.</li>
<li>MFE, Grifols and Henkel offer the cleanest A/B convergence setups into year-end.</li>
<li>Nordic anomalies persist: Handelsbanken’s extreme premium and SSAB’s micro-discount remain the strongest dispersion opportunities.</li>
</ul>


Dual-Class spreads tightened in November, with convergence trades resurfacing as volatility falls and liquidity normalises.
MFE, Grifols and Henkel offer the cleanest A/B convergence setups into year-end.
Nordic anomalies persist: Handelsbanken’s extreme premium and SSAB’s micro-discount remain the strongest dispersion opportunities.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: November'25 Report

<ul>
<li>Across Europe’s dual-class names, spreads mixed: Henkel prefs 9.1%, Atlas Copco B-to-A 11.8%, BMW prefs 7.1%; wideners include Handelsbanken B at 73%, Sixt prefs 27%.</li>
<li>Drivers: liquidity, index flows, and deleveraging—Volkswagen prefs benefit from yield and DAX flows; MFE discount narrows post-ProSieben; Handelsbanken and Fuchs remain valuation anomalies.</li>
<li>Actionables: long MFE A/B, Grifols B/A, Henkel ords/prefs, Volkswagen prefs/ords; fade Handelsbanken B; monitor Investor, Industrivärden, and Volvo parity.</li>
</ul>


Across Europe’s dual-class names, spreads mixed: Henkel prefs 9.1%, Atlas Copco B-to-A 11.8%, BMW prefs 7.1%; wideners include Handelsbanken B at 73%, Sixt prefs 27%.
Drivers: liquidity, index flows, and deleveraging—Volkswagen prefs benefit from yield and DAX flows; MFE discount narrows post-ProSieben; Handelsbanken and Fuchs remain valuation anomalies.
Actionables: long MFE A/B, Grifols B/A, Henkel ords/prefs, Volkswagen prefs/ords; fade Handelsbanken B; monitor Investor, Industrivärden, and Volvo parity.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: October'25 Report

<ul>
<li>Across Europe’s dual-class names, spreads mostly tightened: Atlas Copco B-to-A 10.8%, BMW prefs 7.2%, Volvo at par; notable wideners include Carlsberg B at 19.5% discount and SSAB B at 2.6%.</li>
<li>Drivers include index inclusion, liquidity and control: Volkswagen prefs gain from flows and €0.06 dividend uplift; Telecom Italia savings widen on arrears prospects; Handelsbanken and Fuchs maintain puzzling elevated premiums.</li>
<li>Actionables: long MFE A versus B as ProSieben settlement lifts liquidity; Grifols B versus A on deleveraging; Henkel ords versus prefs; Volkswagen prefs versus ords; monitor Ericsson, Investor, Industrivärden parity.</li>
</ul>


Across Europe’s dual-class names, spreads mostly tightened: Atlas Copco B-to-A 10.8%, BMW prefs 7.2%, Volvo at par; notable wideners include Carlsberg B at 19.5% discount and SSAB B at 2.6%.
Drivers include index inclusion, liquidity and control: Volkswagen prefs gain from flows and €0.06 dividend uplift; Telecom Italia savings widen on arrears prospects; Handelsbanken and Fuchs maintain puzzling elevated premiums.
Actionables: long MFE A versus B as ProSieben settlement lifts liquidity; Grifols B versus A on deleveraging; Henkel ords versus prefs; Volkswagen prefs versus ords; monitor Ericsson, Investor, Industrivärden parity.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: September'25 Report

<ul>
<li>MFE secured 43.6% of ProSieben; board supports its offer. PPF stalled at 18.4% with expired bid. The arbitrage spread compressed, leaving minimal upside but structural consolidation remains pivotal.</li>
<li>Short-Term arbitrage returns are capped (+0.4% base case), while downside risk persists if blocking dynamics resurface. The medium-term value case depends on synergy delivery, with 18–35% EPS accretion possible.</li>
<li>Key milestones: September 1 end of extended acceptance, September 4 final results. Thereafter, MFE may pursue creeping acquisitions under Germany’s best-price rule, progressively consolidating control and enabling strategic integration.</li>
</ul>


MFE secured 43.6% of ProSieben; board supports its offer. PPF stalled at 18.4% with expired bid. The arbitrage spread compressed, leaving minimal upside but structural consolidation remains pivotal.
Short-Term arbitrage returns are capped (+0.4% base case), while downside risk persists if blocking dynamics resurface. The medium-term value case depends on synergy delivery, with 18–35% EPS accretion possible.
Key milestones: September 1 end of extended acceptance, September 4 final results. Thereafter, MFE may pursue creeping acquisitions under Germany’s best-price rule, progressively consolidating control and enabling strategic integration.


MFE-ProSieben: Spread Closed, Control Still in Play

Italy

MFE-MediaForEurope NV is an international holding company specializing in free-to-air and pay-TV production and distribution across multiple platforms, alongside film and multimedia production, distribution, and advertising sales. The company offers commercial television, radio, digital, and on-demand services, and is a major shareholder in European broadcasters. It was founded in 2021 and has its headquarters in Cologno Monzese, Italy, with a registered office in Amsterdam, Netherlands.

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MFE-MediaForEurope (MFEB IM)

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: January '26 Report

January confirmed dispersion without repricing in European dual-class stocks: liquidity and structure drove selective convergence, while a few...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: November'25 Report

Dual-class spreads tightened in November as liquidity improved. MFE, Grifols and Henkel lead convergence opportunities, while Nordic...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: October'25 Report

European dual-class spreads diverged in October; liquidity and control themes dominate. Favor convergence longs (MFE, Grifols, Henkel, VW), fade...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: September'25 Report

This month’s color: MFE A/B narrows on ProSieben; VW prefs outpace ords; Atlas Copco & BMW tighten; Carlsberg B and SSAB B widen; TIM savings bid...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

MFE-ProSieben: Spread Closed, Control Still in Play

MFE leads ProSieben takeover with 43.6% stake; spread closed, upside minimal. Real value now hinges on integration and €150m synergies, offering...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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