Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

We remain constructive overall and continue to believe that global equities (MSCI ACWI) are going through a bottoming process. Opportunities exist but Sector leadership is mixed.  In our February International Strategy document, we explore various themes which lead to our overall constructive outlook, as well as a technical appraisal of each Sector and the investable opportunities therein.

We remain constructive overall and continue to believe that global equities (MSCI ACWI) are going through a bottoming process. Opportunities exist but Sector leadership is mixed.  In our February International Strategy document, we explore various themes which lead to our overall constructive outlook, as well as a technical appraisal of each Sector and the investable opportunities therein.

Global Equity Strategy: Constructive Outlook Intact, Bottoming Process Continues

Investment Advisors, JL Warren Capital

Junheng Li

Investment Advisors

JL Warren Capital

JL Warren Capital LLC is a leading independent equity research firm focused on Chinese companies and listed multinationals in China. We employ a bottom-up research approach that takes great care to avoid the acquisition of material non-public information. Through investigative due diligence including channel surveys and interviews, our research helps clients to pinpoint the dislocations in the market.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Preliminary consumption and tourism data from the Chinese New Year started to come out last Sunday.  While growth rates clearly weakened compared to previous years, they are in line with the “soft-landing” expectation.

Preliminary consumption and tourism data from the Chinese New Year started to come out last Sunday.  While growth rates clearly weakened compared to previous years, they are in line with the “soft-landing” expectation. 

CNY 2019 Consumption/Tourism Preliminary Data: Decelerating But Better Than Many Feared

Broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., and EAFE) are showing signs of bottoming due to positive short-term price inflections topside their respective downtrends. Additionally, cyclical Sectors Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Manufacturing exhibit early signs of price and RS bottoms throughout Europe, Japan, and EM.  In today’s report we highlight attractive and actionable opportunities within these cyclical Sectors, and provide a technical appraisal of major global indexes.

Broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., and EAFE) are showing signs of bottoming due to positive short-term price inflections topside their respective downtrends. Additionally, cyclical Sectors Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Manufacturing exhibit early signs of price and RS bottoms throughout Europe, Japan, and EM.  In today’s report we highlight attractive and actionable opportunities within these cyclical Sectors, and provide a technical appraisal of major global indexes.

Global Equity Strategy: Global Outlook Improving

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

"There are a heck of a lot of U.S. companies that have a lot of sales in China that are basically going to be watching their earnings be downgraded...until we get a deal with China. It's not going to be just Apple." Kevin Hassett, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, speaking last week‘I have no use whatsoever for projections or forecasts. They create an illusion of apparent precision. The more meticulous they are, the more concerned you should be.’ Warren Buffet

"There are a heck of a lot of U.S. companies that have a lot of sales in China that are basically going to be watching their earnings be downgraded...until we get a deal with China. It's not going to be just Apple." Kevin Hassett, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, speaking last week‘I have no use whatsoever for projections or forecasts. They create an illusion of apparent precision. The more meticulous they are, the more concerned you should be.’ Warren Buffet

Macau Offers Positive China Consumer Surprise

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<blockquote>‘However, given the lagged impact of a spate of policy easing measures implemented since June to bolster growth against trade war risks, we should start seeing sequential revenue growth at the baccarat tables early next year. At current valuations, free cashflow yields across the sector are 7-9% and EV to EBITDA multiples 9-12x, so there is value emerging for the patient, assuming no radical regulatory overhaul while Macau names offer leveraged upside in a wider China/AXJ rally should trade downside fears prove excessive in Q4…’ </blockquote>
Weekly Insight, September 18th (available on Bloomberg at ENTX)
</div>


‘However, given the lagged impact of a spate of policy easing measures implemented since June to bolster growth against trade war risks, we should start seeing sequential revenue growth at the baccarat tables early next year. At current valuations, free cashflow yields across the sector are 7-9% and EV to EBITDA multiples 9-12x, so there is value emerging for the patient, assuming no radical regulatory overhaul while Macau names offer leveraged upside in a wider China/AXJ rally should trade downside fears prove excessive in Q4…’ 
Weekly Insight, September 18th (available on Bloomberg at ENTX)


Macau Casinos Look Winners from China Stimulus

Macau

MGM China Holdings Limited is an investment holding company that develops, owns, and operates gaming and lodging resorts in the Greater China region. The company operates casino games of chance, hotel, and resort facilities, and provides hotel management services, notably through its MGM Macau and MGM Cotai properties. It was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in Macau.

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MGM China (2282 HK)

Global Equity Strategy: Constructive Outlook Intact, Bottoming Process Continues

We remain constructive overall and continue to believe that global equities (MSCI ACWI) are going through a bottoming process. Opportunities exist...

Vermilion Research

CNY 2019 Consumption/Tourism Preliminary Data: Decelerating But Better Than Many Feared

Preliminary consumption and tourism data from the Chinese New Year started to come out last Sunday. While growth rates clearly weakened compared...

JL Warren Capital

Global Equity Strategy: Global Outlook Improving

Broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., and EAFE) are showing signs of bottoming due to positive short-term price inflections topside their...

Vermilion Research

Macau Offers Positive China Consumer Surprise

"There are a heck of a lot of U.S. companies that have a lot of sales in China that are basically going to be watching their earnings be...

Sean Maher

Macau Casinos Look Winners from China Stimulus

‘However, given the lagged impact of a spate of policy easing measures implemented since June to bolster growth against trade war risks, we should...

Sean Maher

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