Taiwan Tech Focused Asia L/S Analyst

Henry King

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>1H22 is likely the peak for VGA card. Our checks with VGA card makers indicate VGA card price fell in January/February and likely to continue for the rest of 2022. </li>
<li>Potential supply surge, demand decline, and price drop will all lead VGA market to trend south in 2H22.</li>
<li>VGA makers will be negatively impacted in 2H22. Gigabyte may be hit the most whereas Asustek may hit the least. Nvidia should also be hit at a certain degree.</li>
</ul>


1H22 is likely the peak for VGA card. Our checks with VGA card makers indicate VGA card price fell in January/February and likely to continue for the rest of 2022. 
Potential supply surge, demand decline, and price drop will all lead VGA market to trend south in 2H22.
VGA makers will be negatively impacted in 2H22. Gigabyte may be hit the most whereas Asustek may hit the least. Nvidia should also be hit at a certain degree.


The Current Huge Gap of VGA Card Demand over Supply May Reverse in 2H22/2023

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/razer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24380:1" rel="noopener">Razer Inc (1337 HK)</a> announced that all the pre-conditions were fulfilled. The scheme document will be released after the FY21 results (scheduled on or before 17 March).  </li>
<li>The headcount test is a key challenge. While the deal's success benefits from the de-rating of technology shares, it is also undermined by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/logitech-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22422:1" rel="noopener">Logitech International SA (LOGN SW)</a>’s strong 3Q. </li>
<li>The shares are broadly fairly valued at last close both on a SoTP and deal probability basis. We would be buyers up to HK$2.5 per share (implies 65% deal probability).</li>
</ul>



Razer Inc (1337 HK) announced that all the pre-conditions were fulfilled. The scheme document will be released after the FY21 results (scheduled on or before 17 March).  
The headcount test is a key challenge. While the deal's success benefits from the de-rating of technology shares, it is also undermined by Logitech International SA (LOGN SW)’s strong 3Q. 
The shares are broadly fairly valued at last close both on a SoTP and deal probability basis. We would be buyers up to HK$2.5 per share (implies 65% deal probability).


Razer's Offer Spread Risk/Reward – Pre-Conditions Fulfilled

<ul>
<li>The gross spread to the HK$2.82 per share offer has retouched the high of 23%. The headcount test is a key challenge as some minorities voice displeasure over the price.  </li>
<li>Based on the unaffected price of HK$1.81 and at the last close of HK$2.30, the deal probability retouched lows of 48.5%. A 65% deal probability would imply HK$2.47 per share. </li>
<li>In the event of a failed deal, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/razer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24380:1" rel="noopener">Razer Inc (1337 HK)</a>’s strong fundamentals provide solid valuation support. Our SoTP valuation is HK$2.96 per share, 5% higher than the privatisation price.</li>
</ul>


The gross spread to the HK$2.82 per share offer has retouched the high of 23%. The headcount test is a key challenge as some minorities voice displeasure over the price.  
Based on the unaffected price of HK$1.81 and at the last close of HK$2.30, the deal probability retouched lows of 48.5%. A 65% deal probability would imply HK$2.47 per share. 
In the event of a failed deal, Razer Inc (1337 HK)’s strong fundamentals provide solid valuation support. Our SoTP valuation is HK$2.96 per share, 5% higher than the privatisation price.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/razer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24380:1" rel="noopener">Razer Inc (1337 HK)</a> announced a pre-conditional privatisation offer from Mr Tan, Mr Lim and CVC at HK$2.82 per share, a 55.8% premium to the unaffected price. </li>
<li>The pre-condition is anti-trust approval in several countries. Key conditions are the headcount test and approval by at least 75% disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection).  </li>
<li>While the offer will leave many disappointed (such as IPO investors), it is reasonable compared to historical share prices and multiples. The gross spread at the last close is 14.6%. </li>
</ul>



Razer Inc (1337 HK) announced a pre-conditional privatisation offer from Mr Tan, Mr Lim and CVC at HK$2.82 per share, a 55.8% premium to the unaffected price. 
The pre-condition is anti-trust approval in several countries. Key conditions are the headcount test and approval by at least 75% disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection).  
While the offer will leave many disappointed (such as IPO investors), it is reasonable compared to historical share prices and multiples. The gross spread at the last close is 14.6%. 


Razer’s Privatisation Bid by Founders and CVC

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/razer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24380:1" rel="noopener">Razer Inc (1337 HK)</a> designs and builds gamer-focused ecosystem of hardware, software, and services. It offers gaming peripherals and hardware, as well as virtual credit services and offline-to-online digital payment networks. Razer was listed on the HKEx in November 2017 to raise net proceeds of HK$3,930.7 million ($505 million) at HK$3.88 per share. On Friday after market close, Razer announced that Mr Min-Liang Tan (co-founder, CEO and Chairman) and Mr Lim Kaling (a founding investor and non-executive director) are in preliminary discussions with financial investors to explore the possibility of a transaction involving Razer. The transaction may or may not lead to a general offer for the shares. The Board cautions that no decision has been made by Mr Tan and Mr Lim on whether to proceed with any transaction. Mr Tan represents 3,009.3 million shares or 34.35% of outstanding shares and Mr Lim represents 2,054.8 million shares or 23.46% of outstanding shares. Consequently, Mr Tan and Mr Lim together represent 57.81% of outstanding shares.Despite improving financial performance and strong 1H21, the shares are trading -14% and -49% below its 1-year VWAP and IPO price, respectively. Razer is cash rich with the net cash (including leases) accounting for around 23% of the market cap. Also, on 3 June 2021, Mr Tan and Mr Lim sold a combined 275 million shares (3.09% of the total issued share capital at that time) at HK$2.405 per share for financial management purposes. In this context, it is unsurprisingly that Mr Tan and Mr Lim are in discussions with financial investors. <div class="content-highlight">While we think there is a good chance that a transaction materialises, the shares continue to be attractive on an underlying basis. Our base-case SoTP valuation of HK$2.47 per share implies a 26% upside to the last close price of HK$1.96 per share.</div>

Razer Inc (1337 HK) designs and builds gamer-focused ecosystem of hardware, software, and services. It offers gaming peripherals and hardware, as well as virtual credit services and offline-to-online digital payment networks. Razer was listed on the HKEx in November 2017 to raise net proceeds of HK$3,930.7 million ($505 million) at HK$3.88 per share. On Friday after market close, Razer announced that Mr Min-Liang Tan (co-founder, CEO and Chairman) and Mr Lim Kaling (a founding investor and non-executive director) are in preliminary discussions with financial investors to explore the possibility of a transaction involving Razer. The transaction may or may not lead to a general offer for the shares. The Board cautions that no decision has been made by Mr Tan and Mr Lim on whether to proceed with any transaction. Mr Tan represents 3,009.3 million shares or 34.35% of outstanding shares and Mr Lim represents 2,054.8 million shares or 23.46% of outstanding shares. Consequently, Mr Tan and Mr Lim together represent 57.81% of outstanding shares.Despite improving financial performance and strong 1H21, the shares are trading -14% and -49% below its 1-year VWAP and IPO price, respectively. Razer is cash rich with the net cash (including leases) accounting for around 23% of the market cap. Also, on 3 June 2021, Mr Tan and Mr Lim sold a combined 275 million shares (3.09% of the total issued share capital at that time) at HK$2.405 per share for financial management purposes. In this context, it is unsurprisingly that Mr Tan and Mr Lim are in discussions with financial investors. While we think there is a good chance that a transaction materialises, the shares continue to be attractive on an underlying basis. Our base-case SoTP valuation of HK$2.47 per share implies a 26% upside to the last close price of HK$1.96 per share.

Taiwan

Micro-Star International Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets motherboards and video graphic accelerate (VGA) cards.  The Company exports its products to Europe, North America, and other Asian countries.

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Micro Star International (2377 TT)

The Current Huge Gap of VGA Card Demand over Supply May Reverse in 2H22/2023

While Taiwanese VGA card makers reported record sales in January and NVIDIA reported record quarterly revenue for 4QFY22, the outlook of the VGA...

Henry King

Razer's Offer Spread Risk/Reward – Pre-Conditions Fulfilled

While the privatisation's success benefits from the de-rating of technology shares, it is also undermined by Logitech’s strong 3Q. We would be...

Arun George

Razer's Offer Spread Risk/Reward

The gross spread to the HK$2.82 per share offer has retouched the high of 23%. In the event of a failed deal, the strong fundamentals provide solid...

Arun George

Razer’s Privatisation Bid by Founders and CVC

While the HK$2.82 per share offer will leave many disappointed (such as IPO investors), it is reasonable compared to historical share prices and...

Arun George

Razer Potentially in Play?

Razer announced that Mr Tan and Mr Lim are in discussions with investors on a possible transaction that may lead to a general offer. The shares...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

The Current Huge Gap of VGA Card Demand over Supply May Reverse in 2H22/2023

While Taiwanese VGA card makers reported record sales in January and NVIDIA reported record quarterly revenue for 4QFY22, the outlook of the VGA...

Henry King

Razer's Offer Spread Risk/Reward – Pre-Conditions Fulfilled

While the privatisation's success benefits from the de-rating of technology shares, it is also undermined by Logitech’s strong 3Q. We would be...

Arun George

Razer's Offer Spread Risk/​Reward

The gross spread to the HK$2.82 per share offer has retouched the high of 23%. In the event of a failed deal, the strong fundamentals provide solid...

Arun George

Razer’s Privatisation Bid by Founders and CVC

While the HK$2.82 per share offer will leave many disappointed (such as IPO investors), it is reasonable compared to historical share prices and...

Arun George

Razer Potentially in Play?

Razer announced that Mr Tan and Mr Lim are in discussions with investors on a possible transaction that may lead to a general offer. The shares...

Arun George

Razer's Offer Spread Risk/Reward