HarmoniQ Insights

William Mann

Independent Insight Provider

At HarmoniQ Insights, we empower investors to enhance their investment strategies by integrating cutting-edge quantitative research processes and technologies. Our solutions provide access to leading quantitative data providers and services, tailored to align with each client’s unique goals. By bridging the gap between traditional investment approaches and advanced data-driven methods, we help clients gain a competitive edge through innovation in both process and technology.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Initiate a short position in MCHP Target Price Range: $45-50 Time Horizon: 6-12 months </li>
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Declining fundamentals: Q2 FY2025 revenue declined 48% YoY, with adjusted EPS falling 72% YoY. Valuation concerns: P/E of 36.8x vs. sector median of 22x, unsupported by current performance.  </li>
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Geo-Political risk: 50% of sales from Asia, exposed to potential trade tensions. Operational challenges: Customer destocking and sluggish demand. ETF-Driven price support: Potential for sharp correction if sector rotation occurs. </li>
</ul>


Initiate a short position in MCHP Target Price Range: $45-50 Time Horizon: 6-12 months 

Declining fundamentals: Q2 FY2025 revenue declined 48% YoY, with adjusted EPS falling 72% YoY. Valuation concerns: P/E of 36.8x vs. sector median of 22x, unsupported by current performance.  

Geo-Political risk: 50% of sales from Asia, exposed to potential trade tensions. Operational challenges: Customer destocking and sluggish demand. ETF-Driven price support: Potential for sharp correction if sector rotation occurs. 


2025 High Conviction Short: Microchip Technology Inc. (MCHP)

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

<ul><li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/entegris-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12493" rel="noopener">Entegris Inc (ENTG US)</a> - Memory spending is happening next year, but MSI remains weak.</li><li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astera-labs-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40921" rel="noopener">Astera Labs (ALAB US)</a> - This is now the second way to play a levered Trainium ramp, as they have extensive content with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409" rel="noopener">Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)</a>.</li><li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lattice-semiconductor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7855" rel="noopener">Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC US)</a> - Standard kitchen sink; I like the stock long-term.</li></ul>

Entegris Inc (ENTG US) - Memory spending is happening next year, but MSI remains weak.Astera Labs (ALAB US) - This is now the second way to play a levered Trainium ramp, as they have extensive content with Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US).Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC US) - Standard kitchen sink; I like the stock long-term.

Earnings: ENTG, ALAB, LSCC, SITM, QCOM, MCHP, WOLF, ARM, ACLS, AAOI, ANET, LITE, COHR

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

<ul>
<li>Microchip used to be the bellwether for semiconductor demand After many semis guided weaknesses in automotive, industrial, and digital consumer much earlier, Microchip's 19% miss in 1Q24 gives no surprise.</li>
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Why the worst among all? We attributed Microchip to over 85% of its products on automotive, industrial, and digital consumer. Other semis have higher exposure on PC and comm.</li>
<li>
Priced in? We estimate over 20% y/y decline in 2024 sales vs. Bloomberg's -8% y/y. 2024E EPS of US$2.94 is likely below US$1. Price is only 10% below historical peak.</li>
</ul>


Microchip used to be the bellwether for semiconductor demand After many semis guided weaknesses in automotive, industrial, and digital consumer much earlier, Microchip's 19% miss in 1Q24 gives no surprise.

Why the worst among all? We attributed Microchip to over 85% of its products on automotive, industrial, and digital consumer. Other semis have higher exposure on PC and comm.

Priced in? We estimate over 20% y/y decline in 2024 sales vs. Bloomberg's -8% y/y. 2024E EPS of US$2.94 is likely below US$1. Price is only 10% below historical peak.


From the Bellwether to a Lagging Indicator- Why Does Microchip Guide the Worst Among All?

J Capital Research

J Capital Research, a U.S. company, publishes highly diligenced research reports on publicly traded companies, relying on deep, on-the-ground primary research. J Capital has particular expertise in the Chinese market, but we look at over-valued companies throughout the world. As an activist short- and long-research shop, when we form a clear view, we publish free, public reports to inform the investing public and never disguise our identity. We believe the internet has afforded an opportunity to small, unaffiliated investors to leapfrog the big banks, with their conflicts of interest, and obtain unbiased information on traded companies. We pride ourselves on our independence and the quality of our work. We hope the work speaks for itself.

<ul><li>Microchip Technology (MCHP) has gotten caught up in AI fever.</li><li>Executives say the great majority of growth is from data centers.</li><li>They call data centers part of their “megatrend” segment and say their products serve the “bleeding edge” of AI technology.</li></ul>

Microchip Technology (MCHP) has gotten caught up in AI fever.Executives say the great majority of growth is from data centers.They call data centers part of their “megatrend” segment and say their products serve the “bleeding edge” of AI technology.

Microchip Technology (MCHP): AI Hype Takes You Only So Far

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Microchip Technology Incorporated reported financial results for its fourth quarter and fiscal year 2026 with sequential and year-over-year growth in revenue, margins, and profitability, supported by recovery across several end markets and operational improvements.</li><li>Net sales for the March quarter reached $1.311 billion, representing a 10.6% sequential increase and a 35.1% rise compared to the prior-year quarter, exceeding previous guidance.</li><li>For the fiscal year, net sales were $4.713 billion, up 7.1% from fiscal 2025.</li></ul>

Microchip Technology Incorporated reported financial results for its fourth quarter and fiscal year 2026 with sequential and year-over-year growth in revenue, margins, and profitability, supported by recovery across several end markets and operational improvements.Net sales for the March quarter reached $1.311 billion, representing a 10.6% sequential increase and a 35.1% rise compared to the prior-year quarter, exceeding previous guidance.For the fiscal year, net sales were $4.713 billion, up 7.1% from fiscal 2025.

Microchip Technology’s $1.311 Billion Rebound: Is The Recovery Finally Taking Hold?

United States

Microchip Technology Incorporated designs, manufactures, and markets microcontrollers, related mixed-signal and memory products, and application development systems for high-volume embedded control applications. The Company also designs, develops, and markets linear/mixed-signal, power management, and thermal management products.

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Microchip Technology (MCHP US)

2025 High Conviction Short: Microchip Technology Inc. (MCHP)

December 2, 2024, following US Market Close: Steve Sanghi, MCHP Chairman and interim CEO, said Monday that it would close a plant in Tempe,...

William Mann

Earnings: ENTG, ALAB, LSCC, SITM, QCOM, MCHP, WOLF, ARM, ACLS, AAOI, ANET, LITE, COHR

What a week (I’m a bit late on this)! I wanted to give a quick overview of all the companies that reported last week. Lattice Semiconductor -...

Fabricated Knowledge

From the Bellwether to a Lagging Indicator- Why Does Microchip Guide the Worst Among All?

From the Bellwether to a Lagging Indicator- Why Does Microchip Guide the Worst Among All? For next six months, we like both Intel and Qualcomm more...

Andrew Lu

Microchip Technology (MCHP): AI Hype Takes You Only So Far

Microchip Technology (MCHP) has gotten caught up in AI fever. Executives say the great majority of growth is from data centers. They call data...

J Capital Research

Microchip Technology’s $1.311 Billion Rebound: Is The Recovery Finally Taking Hold?

Microchip Technology Incorporated reported financial results for its fourth quarter and fiscal year 2026 with sequential and year-over-year growth...

Baptista Research

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