Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>MicroStrategy Incorporated's Q1 2025 earnings present a snapshot of the company's current strategic and financial landscape.</li><li>The company continues to assert itself as a major player in the corporate Bitcoin ecosystem and is committed to its strategic focus on Bitcoin investments.</li><li>MicroStrategy maintains its position as the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin globally, holding 553,555 Bitcoins with a market value of $52 billion.</li></ul>

MicroStrategy Incorporated's Q1 2025 earnings present a snapshot of the company's current strategic and financial landscape.The company continues to assert itself as a major player in the corporate Bitcoin ecosystem and is committed to its strategic focus on Bitcoin investments.MicroStrategy maintains its position as the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin globally, holding 553,555 Bitcoins with a market value of $52 billion.

MicroStrategy: Increasing Institutional Adoption of Bitcoin to Enhance Its Financial Metrics & Investor Confidence!

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

IShares Bitcoin Trust ETF / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Bitcoin has seen a historic price decline since October.  The fear gauge is higher than at any time in its history, and technical indicators show further downside is likely.</li>
<li>The bitcoin ecosystem is highly leveraged and has seen miners and related single-stock ETFs fall dramatically.  Bitcoin volatility remains below historical levels, suggesting further selling is likely.</li>
<li>Bitcoin price is highly dependent on monetary conditions, which indicate that easing will end by 1Q 2027. Gold is supported by continuing higher inflation expectations and, hence, the price divergence.</li>
</ul>


Bitcoin has seen a historic price decline since October.  The fear gauge is higher than at any time in its history, and technical indicators show further downside is likely.
The bitcoin ecosystem is highly leveraged and has seen miners and related single-stock ETFs fall dramatically.  Bitcoin volatility remains below historical levels, suggesting further selling is likely.
Bitcoin price is highly dependent on monetary conditions, which indicate that easing will end by 1Q 2027. Gold is supported by continuing higher inflation expectations and, hence, the price divergence.


Bitcoin: HOW TO LOSE MONEY IN A BULL MARKET!!

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, ORTEX

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crh-plc-054117b2-cd70-470a-9efc-8f6fab2c83ec" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28655:1" rel="noopener">CRH (CRH US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/comfort-systems-usa-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6730:1" rel="noopener">Comfort Systems USA (FIX US)</a> are the main candidates for addition due to consistently high eligibility scores.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pure-storage-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27421:1" rel="noopener">Pure Storage Inc (PSTG US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/solstice-advanced-materials" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45953:1" rel="noopener">Solstice Advanced Materials (SOLS US)</a> face reduced conviction due to sector balance and turnover.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vertiv-holdings-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33140:1" rel="noopener">Vertiv Holdings Co (VRT US)</a> has a higher probability of inclusion following the acquisition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kellogg-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16090:1" rel="noopener">Kellogg Co (K US)</a> which is still pending.</li>
</ul>



CRH (CRH US) and Comfort Systems USA (FIX US) are the main candidates for addition due to consistently high eligibility scores.

Pure Storage Inc (PSTG US) and Solstice Advanced Materials (SOLS US) face reduced conviction due to sector balance and turnover.

Vertiv Holdings Co (VRT US) has a higher probability of inclusion following the acquisition of Kellogg Co (K US) which is still pending.


S&P500 December 2025 Final Forecast: FIX & CRH Leading the Pack

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our 2/25/25 Compass, we discussed our expectation for near-term downside. Also said one or two 8-10% pullbacks in a given year on the SPX is common</li>
<li>And said to not be surprised if there is a test of the bottom of the range at either 5770-5850 or 5600-5670, where we would be buyers</li>
<li>The SPX had a -10.3% peak-to-trough decline, with support showing up at 5500; close enough to our 10% pullback and 5600 level. This has been a stellar buy area</li>
</ul>


In our 2/25/25 Compass, we discussed our expectation for near-term downside. Also said one or two 8-10% pullbacks in a given year on the SPX is common
And said to not be surprised if there is a test of the bottom of the range at either 5770-5850 or 5600-5670, where we would be buyers
The SPX had a -10.3% peak-to-trough decline, with support showing up at 5500; close enough to our 10% pullback and 5600 level. This has been a stellar buy area


Major Low Likely in Place on S&P 500; Bullish Outlook Intact if Above 5500-5600

<ul><li>MicroStrategy Incorporated, now rebranded as Strategy, recently held its earnings call to discuss the performance and strategic developments for the fourth quarter and full year 2024.</li><li>The company is undergoing significant transformation, with its rebranding reflecting its commitment to business intelligence and its role as a major Bitcoin treasury company.</li><li>This name change and strategic shift symbolize a simplification of its identity while retaining continuity with its past and setting ambitious goals for future growth in digital assets and business intelligence.</li></ul>

MicroStrategy Incorporated, now rebranded as Strategy, recently held its earnings call to discuss the performance and strategic developments for the fourth quarter and full year 2024.The company is undergoing significant transformation, with its rebranding reflecting its commitment to business intelligence and its role as a major Bitcoin treasury company.This name change and strategic shift symbolize a simplification of its identity while retaining continuity with its past and setting ambitious goals for future growth in digital assets and business intelligence.

MicroStrategy Incorporated: How Is The Management Embracing Volatility & Innovative Capital Structures?

United States

Strategy Inc operates a bitcoin treasury company. The Company offers an equity and fixed income instruments to provide investors varying degrees of economic exposure to bitcoin, as well as develops enterprise analytics software to explore improvement in bitcoin applications. Strategy serves customers worldwide.

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Strategy (MSTR US)

MicroStrategy: Increasing Institutional Adoption of Bitcoin to Enhance Its Financial Metrics & Investor Confidence!

MicroStrategy Incorporated's Q1 2025 earnings present a snapshot of the company's current strategic and financial landscape. The company continues...

Baptista Research

Bitcoin: HOW TO LOSE MONEY IN A BULL MARKET!!

Bitcoin has seen a historic price decline since October. The fear gauge is higher than at any time in its history, and technical indicators show...

David Mudd

S&P500 December 2025 Final Forecast: FIX & CRH Leading the Pack

CRH and FIX are top candidates for addition in December 2025, while PSTG and SOLS face reduced conviction. VRT has a higher chance of inclusion...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Major Low Likely in Place on S&P 500; Bullish Outlook Intact if Above 5500-5600

Major Low Likely in Place on $SPX; Bullish Outlook Intact if Above 5500-5600. 5670-5718 is short-term gap support; Power in hands of bulls if...

Vermilion Research

MicroStrategy Incorporated: How Is The Management Embracing Volatility & Innovative Capital Structures?

MicroStrategy Incorporated, now rebranded as Strategy, recently held its earnings call to discuss the performance and strategic developments for...

Baptista Research

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

MicroStrategy: Increasing Institutional Adoption of Bitcoin to Enhance Its Financial Metrics & Investor Confidence!

MicroStrategy Incorporated's Q1 2025 earnings present a snapshot of the company's current strategic and financial landscape. The company continues...

Baptista Research

Bitcoin: HOW TO LOSE MONEY IN A BULL MARKET!!

Bitcoin has seen a historic price decline since October. The fear gauge is higher than at any time in its history, and technical indicators show...

David Mudd

S&P500 December 2025 Final Forecast: FIX & CRH Leading the Pack

​CRH and FIX are top candidates for addition in December 2025, while PSTG and SOLS face reduced conviction. VRT has a higher chance of inclusion...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Major Low Likely in Place on S&P 500; Bullish Outlook Intact if Above 5500-5600

Major Low Likely in Place on $SPX; Bullish Outlook Intact if Above 5500-5600. 5670-5718 is short-term gap support; Power in hands of bulls if...

Vermilion Research

MicroStrategy Incorporated: How Is The Management Embracing Volatility & Innovative Capital Structures?

MicroStrategy Incorporated, now rebranded as Strategy, recently held its earnings call to discuss the performance and strategic developments for...

Baptista Research

CRH and FIX are top candidates for addition in December 2025, while PSTG and SOLS face reduced conviction. VRT has a higher chance of inclusion...