New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>2024 ended with index considerations influencing short-term share prices, such that we have downgraded Contact Energy (CEN) to NEUTRAL and reiterate the buying opportunity in Mercury (MCY).</li>
<li>The likely inclusion of CEN at the expense of MCY in the MSCI Standard Index has seen CEN’s share price pop and MCY's drop.</li>
<li>2024 was dominated by two events that will shape the sector in the years ahead. </li>
</ul>


2024 ended with index considerations influencing short-term share prices, such that we have downgraded Contact Energy (CEN) to NEUTRAL and reiterate the buying opportunity in Mercury (MCY).
The likely inclusion of CEN at the expense of MCY in the MSCI Standard Index has seen CEN’s share price pop and MCY's drop.
2024 was dominated by two events that will shape the sector in the years ahead. 


Power Points Index Opportunities — January 2025

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Evidence of Mercury's (MCY) challenging 1Q25 is apparent in the operating statistics, with hydro generation well below average and gas costs continuing to rise higher.</li><li>The recovery in hydro storage during late August and September 2024 has enabled MCY to lift FY25 hydro generation guidance and earnings expectations.</li><li>After a difficult 1Q25, MCY is better positioned for the remainder of FY25, with possible La Nina conditions a likely positive for North Island hydro generation. OUTPERFORM.</li></ul>

Evidence of Mercury's (MCY) challenging 1Q25 is apparent in the operating statistics, with hydro generation well below average and gas costs continuing to rise higher.The recovery in hydro storage during late August and September 2024 has enabled MCY to lift FY25 hydro generation guidance and earnings expectations.After a difficult 1Q25, MCY is better positioned for the remainder of FY25, with possible La Nina conditions a likely positive for North Island hydro generation. OUTPERFORM.

Mercury - Bumpy Waters — 1Q25 Operating Statistics

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>The government has announced 149 projects to be included in its Fast-Track Approvals Bill, expected to pass later this year.</li><li>This has the potential to give a much needed injection of energy into the downbeat NZ economy.</li><li>Paired with all but certain continued interest rate cuts, the contours of an economic recovery are starting to take shape.</li></ul></div></div></div></div>

The government has announced 149 projects to be included in its Fast-Track Approvals Bill, expected to pass later this year.This has the potential to give a much needed injection of energy into the downbeat NZ economy.Paired with all but certain continued interest rate cuts, the contours of an economic recovery are starting to take shape.

New Zealand Moving Out of the Slow Lane - Fast-Track Approvals Welcome News

<ul><li>September 2024 was a strong month for some, but a soft month for others.</li><li>Replenishment of the hydro lakes was a welcome relief for the sector, but hedge contracts designed to protect downside risk from ongoing dry conditions has seen Meridian Energy (MEL) struggle.</li><li>Contact Energy (CEN) and Mercury (MCY) have benefitted the most in the short-term from the rapid change in conditions. </li></ul>

September 2024 was a strong month for some, but a soft month for others.Replenishment of the hydro lakes was a welcome relief for the sector, but hedge contracts designed to protect downside risk from ongoing dry conditions has seen Meridian Energy (MEL) struggle.Contact Energy (CEN) and Mercury (MCY) have benefitted the most in the short-term from the rapid change in conditions. 

Power Points - Water Works Wonders​​​​​​​ — October 2024

<ul><li>We upgrade Mercury (MCY) to OUTPERFORM from NEUTRAL, as it is offering good value relative to Meridian Energy (MEL) in particular, and we expect near-term FY25 EBITDAF earnings will be better than guidance following recent rain.</li><li>Since 2018 MEL has always traded at a premium to its peers, but is currently trading at a near record premium using our preferred EV/EBITDAF less stay-in-business (SIB) capex metric.</li><li>Looking at the three largest generator/retailers, MEL's equity value is greater than Contact Energy (CEN) and MCY combined, and yet CEN and MCY's combined businesses generate over 30% more electricity and earnings than MEL. </li></ul>

We upgrade Mercury (MCY) to OUTPERFORM from NEUTRAL, as it is offering good value relative to Meridian Energy (MEL) in particular, and we expect near-term FY25 EBITDAF earnings will be better than guidance following recent rain.Since 2018 MEL has always traded at a premium to its peers, but is currently trading at a near record premium using our preferred EV/EBITDAF less stay-in-business (SIB) capex metric.Looking at the three largest generator/retailers, MEL's equity value is greater than Contact Energy (CEN) and MCY combined, and yet CEN and MCY's combined businesses generate over 30% more electricity and earnings than MEL. 

Electricity Sector - MCY Shining Brighter Than MEL

New Zealand

Mercury NZ Ltd provides utility services. The Company generates and supplies electricity from hydro, geothermal, gas-fired, and wind power stations, as well as owns and manages bio-energy power plants. Mighty River Power serves customers throughout New Zealand.

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Mercury NZ Ltd (MCY NZ)

Power Points Index Opportunities — January 2025

2024 ended with index considerations influencing short-term share prices, such that we have downgraded Contact Energy (CEN) to NEUTRAL and...

Forsyth Barr

Mercury - Bumpy Waters — 1Q25 Operating Statistics

Evidence of Mercury's (MCY) challenging 1Q25 is apparent in the operating statistics, with hydro generation well below average and gas costs...

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Moving Out of the Slow Lane - Fast-Track Approvals Welcome News

The government has announced 149 projects to be included in its Fast-Track Approvals Bill, expected to pass later this year.

Forsyth Barr

Power Points - Water Works Wonders — October 2024

These two stocks are our preferred of the large generator/retailers and along with Manawa Energy (MNW) are rated OUTPERFORM.

Forsyth Barr

Electricity Sector - MCY Shining Brighter Than MEL

MCY joins CEN and Manawa Energy (MNW) as our preferred electricity sector stocks with OUTPERFORM ratings. Genesis Energy (GNE) and MEL are rated...

Forsyth Barr

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Power Points Index Opportunities — January 2025

2024 ended with index considerations influencing short-term share prices, such that we have downgraded Contact Energy (CEN) to NEUTRAL and...

Forsyth Barr

Mercury - Bumpy Waters — 1Q25 Operating Statistics

Evidence of Mercury's (MCY) challenging 1Q25 is apparent in the operating statistics, with hydro generation well below average and gas costs...

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Moving Out of the Slow Lane - Fast-Track Approvals Welcome News

The government has announced 149 projects to be included in its Fast-Track Approvals Bill, expected to pass later this year.

Forsyth Barr

Power Points - Water Works Wonders​​​​​​​ — October 2024

These two stocks are our preferred of the large generator/retailers and along with Manawa Energy (MNW) are rated OUTPERFORM.

Forsyth Barr

Electricity Sector - MCY Shining Brighter Than MEL

MCY joins CEN and Manawa Energy (MNW) as our preferred electricity sector stocks with OUTPERFORM ratings. Genesis Energy (GNE) and MEL are rated...

Forsyth Barr

Power Points - Water Works Wonders — October 2024