New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Mercury’s (MCY) geothermal investor day fleshed out its near-term geothermal development opportunities, highlighting two projects at Ngā Tamariki and Rotokawa respectively.</li><li>The two targeted developments add up to 125MW and ~+1TWh of generation to MCY’s portfolio.</li><li>Geothermal is our preferred renewable generation development technology as it does not face the same intermittency challenges as wind and solar, making it lower risk.</li></ul>

Mercury’s (MCY) geothermal investor day fleshed out its near-term geothermal development opportunities, highlighting two projects at Ngā Tamariki and Rotokawa respectively.The two targeted developments add up to 125MW and ~+1TWh of generation to MCY’s portfolio.Geothermal is our preferred renewable generation development technology as it does not face the same intermittency challenges as wind and solar, making it lower risk.

Mercury Full Steam Ahead—Geothermal Investor Day

<ul><li>The FY26 EBITDAF guidance upgrade that we thought Mercury (MCY) might make at its 1H26 result has come through.</li><li>With its storage lake effectively full, when it is usually at a seasonal low, MCY is well positioned to continue its strong momentum through 4Q26 and into FY27.</li><li>We have lifted our target price +10cps.</li></ul>

The FY26 EBITDAF guidance upgrade that we thought Mercury (MCY) might make at its 1H26 result has come through.With its storage lake effectively full, when it is usually at a seasonal low, MCY is well positioned to continue its strong momentum through 4Q26 and into FY27.We have lifted our target price +10cps.

Mercury Bursting With Energy—3Q26 Op Stats

<ul><li>Mercury (MCY) has reported the expected record 1H26 EBITDAF, driven primarily by materially better hydro generation volumes, which lifted EBITDAF +29%.</li><li>The key focus remains new developments, which MCY aims to link to new demand as much as possible.</li><li>MCY's track record is strong, and we see further upside potential within the business.</li></ul>

Mercury (MCY) has reported the expected record 1H26 EBITDAF, driven primarily by materially better hydro generation volumes, which lifted EBITDAF +29%.The key focus remains new developments, which MCY aims to link to new demand as much as possible.MCY's track record is strong, and we see further upside potential within the business.

Mercury Hydro Powered Performance—1H26 Result

<ul><li>Mercury (MCY) had a solid 2Q26 with above-average hydro generation, low spot gas prices, and robust yield growth driving a strong performance.</li><li>MCY starts 2H26 with Lake Taupo storage +20% above average, and strong near-term inflows.</li><li>MCY is well positioned to finish FY26 strongly, with upside if conditions dry in the South Island, resulting in firmer wholesale prices at which it can sell surplus hydro.</li></ul>

Mercury (MCY) had a solid 2Q26 with above-average hydro generation, low spot gas prices, and robust yield growth driving a strong performance.MCY starts 2H26 with Lake Taupo storage +20% above average, and strong near-term inflows.MCY is well positioned to finish FY26 strongly, with upside if conditions dry in the South Island, resulting in firmer wholesale prices at which it can sell surplus hydro.

Mercury Solid Performance—2Q26 Operating Statistics

<ul><li>Mercury (MCY) had a good 1Q26, particularly relative to the challenging 1Q25.</li><li>Above-average hydro generation made a significant difference, and while its Lake Taupo storage lake is full, low wholesale electricity prices prevent a more positive short-term outlook for now.</li><li>Modest earnings uplifts have increased our target price by +10cps (+1.3%) to NZ$7.60.</li></ul>

Mercury (MCY) had a good 1Q26, particularly relative to the challenging 1Q25.Above-average hydro generation made a significant difference, and while its Lake Taupo storage lake is full, low wholesale electricity prices prevent a more positive short-term outlook for now.Modest earnings uplifts have increased our target price by +10cps (+1.3%) to NZ$7.60.

Mercury Fully Charged—1Q26 Operating Statistics

New Zealand

Mercury NZ Ltd provides utility services. The Company generates and supplies electricity from hydro, geothermal, gas-fired, and wind power stations, as well as owns and manages bio-energy power plants. Mighty River Power serves customers throughout New Zealand.

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Mercury NZ Ltd (MCY NZ)

Mercury Full Steam Ahead—Geothermal Investor Day

Mercury’s (MCY) geothermal investor day fleshed out its near-term geothermal development opportunities, highlighting two projects at Ngā Tamariki...

Forsyth Barr

Mercury Bursting With Energy—3Q26 Op Stats

The FY26 EBITDAF guidance upgrade that we thought Mercury (MCY) might make at its 1H26 result has come through. With its storage lake effectively...

Forsyth Barr

Mercury Hydro Powered Performance—1H26 Result

Mercury (MCY) has reported the expected record 1H26 EBITDAF, driven primarily by materially better hydro generation volumes, which lifted EBITDAF...

Forsyth Barr

Mercury Solid Performance—2Q26 Operating Statistics

Mercury (MCY) had a solid 2Q26 with above-average hydro generation, low spot gas prices, and robust yield growth driving a strong performance.

Forsyth Barr

Mercury Fully Charged—1Q26 Operating Statistics

Above-average hydro generation made a significant difference, and while its Lake Taupo storage lake is full, low wholesale electricity prices...

Forsyth Barr

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