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Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

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Equity Bottom-Up

<div><div><div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><p>As noted earlier, MillerKnoll’s 3QFY24 EPS beat expectations but revenue missed widely. 4QFY24 guidance was also below pre-report estimates.</p></li><li><p>With the misses, the stock gapped down by the mid-teens (~$5.00), closing at $24.76, thereby truncating and halting its recent rebound.</p></li><li><p>Y/Y revenue comparisons were negative in all three segments: Americas Contract (AC) at -9% to $441 million, International Contract &amp; Specialty (IC&amp;S) at -10.4% to $217 million, and Global Retail (GR) at -17% to $214 million. </p></li></ul></div></div></div></div>

As noted earlier, MillerKnoll’s 3QFY24 EPS beat expectations but revenue missed widely. 4QFY24 guidance was also below pre-report estimates.With the misses, the stock gapped down by the mid-teens (~$5.00), closing at $24.76, thereby truncating and halting its recent rebound.Y/Y revenue comparisons were negative in all three segments: Americas Contract (AC) at -9% to $441 million, International Contract &amp; Specialty (IC&amp;S) at -10.4% to $217 million, and Global Retail (GR) at -17% to $214 million. 

MillerKnoll, Inc - 3QFY24 EPS Beats; Revenue Misses

<ul><li>MillerKnoll reported 3QFY24 non-GAAP (adjusted) EPS of $0.45, beating our $0.43 estimate and consensus of $0.44.</li><li>Consolidated sales were $872 million, missing our $908 million estimate by $36 million and likewise missing consensus by ~$37 million.</li><li>Gross margin helped the Y/Y comparison, rising 455 bps versus 3QFY23.</li></ul>

MillerKnoll reported 3QFY24 non-GAAP (adjusted) EPS of $0.45, beating our $0.43 estimate and consensus of $0.44.Consolidated sales were $872 million, missing our $908 million estimate by $36 million and likewise missing consensus by ~$37 million.Gross margin helped the Y/Y comparison, rising 455 bps versus 3QFY23.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li><p>Furniture &amp; furnishings equity issues slumped in the final two weeks of 2023 and into the first week of 2024. The group had a positive year.</p></li><li><p>The commercial/contract furniture stocks gained 46%, beating all major broad market indices.</p></li><li><p>Steelcase led the sector with a ~91% gain for the year.</p></li></ul>

Furniture &amp; furnishings equity issues slumped in the final two weeks of 2023 and into the first week of 2024. The group had a positive year.The commercial/contract furniture stocks gained 46%, beating all major broad market indices.Steelcase led the sector with a ~91% gain for the year.

Furniture/Furnishings Weekly - WTR Furniture/Furnishings Conference Approaching

<ul><li>Following a strong margin performance in 2Q, we are raising our 3QFY24 EPS estimate to $0.43, just below the midpoint of guidance, from $0.38.</li><li>The increase is the result of higher margin assumptions on a lower revenue forecast.</li><li>We are also reviewing and lowering our revenue assumptions for the remainder of FY24 and FY25. </li></ul>

Following a strong margin performance in 2Q, we are raising our 3QFY24 EPS estimate to $0.43, just below the midpoint of guidance, from $0.38.The increase is the result of higher margin assumptions on a lower revenue forecast.We are also reviewing and lowering our revenue assumptions for the remainder of FY24 and FY25. 

MillerKnoll, Inc. - Raising 3Q Estimate; Seeing Strength in Retail

<ul><li>After market close on December 20, MillerKnoll reported 2QFY24 adjusted EPS of $0.59, ahead of our estimate of $0.55 and the consensus mean of $0.54.</li><li>Margins were better than expected, while revenue of $949.5 million came in at the low end of guidance.</li><li>Sales in the Americas segment disappointed relative to our expectations.</li></ul>

After market close on December 20, MillerKnoll reported 2QFY24 adjusted EPS of $0.59, ahead of our estimate of $0.55 and the consensus mean of $0.54.Margins were better than expected, while revenue of $949.5 million came in at the low end of guidance.Sales in the Americas segment disappointed relative to our expectations.

MillerKnoll, Inc. - 2QFY24 Results Deliver Strong Margins; Orders Challenged

United States

MillerKnoll, Inc. researches, designs, manufactures, and distributes interior office furnishings, furniture systems, products, and services. The Company markets its products to companies, organizations, and individuals worldwide.

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MillerKnoll (MLKN US)

MillerKnoll, Inc - 3QFY24 EPS Beats; Revenue Misses

As noted earlier, MillerKnoll’s 3QFY24 EPS beat expectations but revenue missed widely. 4QFY24 guidance was also below pre-report estimates.

Water Tower Research

MillerKnoll, Inc. - 3QFY24 Earnings

MillerKnoll reported 3QFY24 non-GAAP (adjusted) EPS of $0.45, beating our $0.43 estimate and consensus of $0.44. Consolidated sales were $872 million

Water Tower Research

Furniture/Furnishings Weekly - WTR Furniture/Furnishings Conference Approaching

Furniture & furnishings equity issues slumped in the final two weeks of 2023 and into the first week of 2024. The group had a positive year.

Water Tower Research

MillerKnoll, Inc. - Raising 3Q Estimate; Seeing Strength in Retail

Following a strong margin performance in 2Q, we are raising our 3QFY24 EPS estimate to $0.43, just below the midpoint of guidance, from $0.38.

Water Tower Research

MillerKnoll, Inc. - 2QFY24 Results Deliver Strong Margins; Orders Challenged

After market close on December 20, MillerKnoll reported 2QFY24 adjusted EPS of $0.59, ahead of our estimate of $0.55 and the consensus mean of $0.54.

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