Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Same 26–27% upside, different entry: MiniMax sits at its July placing price with an MSCI bid in 11 weeks; Z.AI is 11% above Friday's placing with a Sep-27 CB binary.</li>
<li>MiniMax's 17.9% 1H26 gross margin is printed and priced; Z.AI's decisive number — the 2H26 margin that separates near-breakeven from a RMB4.5bn profit — is six months away.</li>
<li>BULLISH MiniMax (FV HK$340), NEUTRAL Z.AI (FV HK$1,000), 56% and 40% below the street. Prefer MiniMax; hedge funds should own Z.AI's convertible, not its equity.</li>
</ul>


Same 26–27% upside, different entry: MiniMax sits at its July placing price with an MSCI bid in 11 weeks; Z.AI is 11% above Friday's placing with a Sep-27 CB binary.
MiniMax's 17.9% 1H26 gross margin is printed and priced; Z.AI's decisive number — the 2H26 margin that separates near-breakeven from a RMB4.5bn profit — is six months away.
BULLISH MiniMax (FV HK$340), NEUTRAL Z.AI (FV HK$1,000), 56% and 40% below the street. Prefer MiniMax; hedge funds should own Z.AI's convertible, not its equity.


MiniMax Vs Zhipu: Same Upside, Different Entry. Buy MiniMax's Reload, Not Zhipu's Re-Rating

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

SHEIN Global Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>We spent the past week meeting ECM focused clients in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>Overall, IPO flow doesn’t appear to be showing any signs of slowing down with multiple investor teams being in expansion mode.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about some of the feedback for the upcoming IPOs and placements.</li>
</ul>


We spent the past week meeting ECM focused clients in Hong Kong.
Overall, IPO flow doesn’t appear to be showing any signs of slowing down with multiple investor teams being in expansion mode.
In this note, we talk about some of the feedback for the upcoming IPOs and placements.


Aequitas: ECM Asia Takeaways from Hong Kong Investor Meetings- Innolight, Shein, A/H Listings, Gcash

<ul>
<li>Five-For-Five on initiation. We started BULLISH at HK$230.20 on 6 August, flagged HK$300 as trim, and identified September’s unlock as entry, not exit. The stock followed cleanly as expected.</li>
<li>A secondary selloff, separate from the unlock, saw huge declines: July’s placing price, 21% below fair value, and 13.4x FY2028E EV/revenue. Margins cleared discipline; MSCI inclusion approaches. Thesis unchanged.</li>
<li>
<strong>Re-Enter. Buy at HK$267.80.</strong> Add aggressively below HK$260. Maximum position below HK$240. Do not chase above HK$300. Position for the November MSCI event by end-October.</li>
</ul>


Five-For-Five on initiation. We started BULLISH at HK$230.20 on 6 August, flagged HK$300 as trim, and identified September’s unlock as entry, not exit. The stock followed cleanly as expected.
A secondary selloff, separate from the unlock, saw huge declines: July’s placing price, 21% below fair value, and 13.4x FY2028E EV/revenue. Margins cleared discipline; MSCI inclusion approaches. Thesis unchanged.

Re-Enter. Buy at HK$267.80. Add aggressively below HK$260. Maximum position below HK$240. Do not chase above HK$300. Position for the November MSCI event by end-October.


MiniMax Group Inc. (100 HK): Unlock Absorbed — Reload Window Now Open

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the rankings of potential ADDs and potential DELs for the December 2026 index rebal event.</li>
<li>At present, we see two changes based on the latest data but the rankings can change until 30th September 2026.</li>
</ul>


The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.
In this insight, we take a look at the rankings of potential ADDs and potential DELs for the December 2026 index rebal event.
At present, we see two changes based on the latest data but the rankings can change until 30th September 2026.


Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Dec26: Two ADDs/DELs Likely

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/minimax-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46185:1" rel="noopener">MiniMax Group (100 HK)</a> listed on 9 January and should be included in one global index and one local index in June.</li>
<li>Lockup expiry in July and September should increase float significantly and there will be more passive buying in November and December.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/minimax-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46185:1" rel="noopener">MiniMax Group (100 HK)</a> should be added to the HSCI in June and to Southbound Stock Connect in August.</li>
</ul>



MiniMax Group (100 HK) listed on 9 January and should be included in one global index and one local index in June.
Lockup expiry in July and September should increase float significantly and there will be more passive buying in November and December.

MiniMax Group (100 HK) should be added to the HSCI in June and to Southbound Stock Connect in August.


MiniMax (100 HK): Index Inclusion Timeline/Flows & Stock Connect Entry

China

MiniMax Group is an artificial intelligence company that develops multimodal AI models and consumer applications. Its offerings include AI character apps like Talkie and Xingye, and video-generation services such as Hailuo AI. The company also creates proprietary foundation models capable of understanding, generating, and integrating various modalities including text, audio, images, video, and music. Headquartered in Shanghai, China, MiniMax was founded in December 2021.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

MiniMax (100 HK)

MiniMax Vs Zhipu: Same Upside, Different Entry. Buy MiniMax's Reload, Not Zhipu's Re-Rating

Same upside, different entry. MiniMax at its placing price with an index bid in 11 weeks; Z.AI above its placing with a CB binary and no answer...

Mo Aziz

Aequitas: ECM Asia Takeaways from Hong Kong Investor Meetings- Innolight, Shein, A/H Listings, Gcash

We spent the past week meeting ECM focused clients in Hong Kong. This note contains some of the key takeaways from the upcoming listings.

Sumeet Singh

MiniMax Group Inc. (100 HK): Unlock Absorbed — Reload Window Now Open

Unlock absorbed. Stock back at the July placing price — 21% below our HK$340 fair value. MSCI EM November adds 6.6m shares of price-insensitive...

Mo Aziz

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Dec26: Two ADDs/DELs Likely

One of our expected DELs have more than 1x ADV to trade. The other names have less than 1x ADV to trade. However, our flow expectations can change...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

MiniMax (100 HK): Index Inclusion Timeline/Flows & Stock Connect Entry

MiniMax will be added to Southbound Stock Connect from the start of trading today. That will also result in the expiry of some pre-IPO shareholder...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)