Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Anthropic's leaked S-1 shows revenue scaling $400m (FY24) to $4.6bn (FY25) to $11.5bn in Q2 2026 alone — but $518bn of non-cancelable compute commitments dwarf the last $965bn private mark.</li>
<li>Anthropic's ~1.8x operating-loss-to-revenue ratio beats Zhipu's ~6.5x and MiniMax's ~3.2x — better unit economics than either listed China AI name, though customer concentration remains the key risk.</li>
<li>No formal call on Anthropic or OpenAI — IPO timeline and audited financials aren't out yet; we reiterate BULLISH MiniMax (FV HK$340) and NEUTRAL Z.AI/Zhipu (FV HK$1,000).</li>
</ul>


Anthropic's leaked S-1 shows revenue scaling $400m (FY24) to $4.6bn (FY25) to $11.5bn in Q2 2026 alone — but $518bn of non-cancelable compute commitments dwarf the last $965bn private mark.
Anthropic's ~1.8x operating-loss-to-revenue ratio beats Zhipu's ~6.5x and MiniMax's ~3.2x — better unit economics than either listed China AI name, though customer concentration remains the key risk.
No formal call on Anthropic or OpenAI — IPO timeline and audited financials aren't out yet; we reiterate BULLISH MiniMax (FV HK$340) and NEUTRAL Z.AI/Zhipu (FV HK$1,000).


Anthropic's Leaked S-1 Vs. China's AI Tigers: The $2 Trillion Question

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The popularity of MiniMax is significantly higher than Zhipu, as the C-end model has greater growth potential and a more attractive valuation logic than the B-end model of Zhipu. </li>
<li>MiniMax has not yet proven its profit model at present. There is risk of overvaluation. We think current valuation level may have partially overdrawn future expectations on MiniMax.</li>
<li>2025 net loss would expand. An optimistic prediction is if MiniMax’s net loss narrows in 2026, it will be a crucial positive signal, indicating that its profit model is working.</li>
</ul>


The popularity of MiniMax is significantly higher than Zhipu, as the C-end model has greater growth potential and a more attractive valuation logic than the B-end model of Zhipu. 
MiniMax has not yet proven its profit model at present. There is risk of overvaluation. We think current valuation level may have partially overdrawn future expectations on MiniMax.
2025 net loss would expand. An optimistic prediction is if MiniMax’s net loss narrows in 2026, it will be a crucial positive signal, indicating that its profit model is working.


MiniMax Group (100 HK) - There Is "Bubble" In Valuation

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

<ul>
<li>Anthropic, OpenAI, xAI, Xiaomi and Stepfun all shipped model updates, with price cuts and open weights at the center of the week.</li>
<li>AI infrastructure financing stayed active across Akamai, Nscale, Firmus, Oracle-linked data centers, CoreWeave facilities and SoftBank debt.</li>
<li>Regulatory and security news focused on Pentagon supply-chain controls, OpenAI evaluation incidents and US review before UK model testing.</li>
</ul>


Anthropic, OpenAI, xAI, Xiaomi and Stepfun all shipped model updates, with price cuts and open weights at the center of the week.
AI infrastructure financing stayed active across Akamai, Nscale, Firmus, Oracle-linked data centers, CoreWeave facilities and SoftBank debt.
Regulatory and security news focused on Pentagon supply-chain controls, OpenAI evaluation incidents and US review before UK model testing.


This Week in AI (Sep 20-26): Opus 5.5 and GPT-6 Launch Cheaper; Data Center IPO Delays

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The stock plunged further after the company unlocked 48.9% of its total equity.</li>
<li>However, the company still has tech advantages globally and domestically, especially in voice.</li>
<li>Given sales based multiples, we believe there is limited downside risk remaining for the stock.</li>
</ul>


The stock plunged further after the company unlocked 48.9% of its total equity.
However, the company still has tech advantages globally and domestically, especially in voice.
Given sales based multiples, we believe there is limited downside risk remaining for the stock.


MiniMax (100 HK): Focus on Technical Advantages After Big Share Unlock

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Contemporary Amperex Technology / Index Rebalance

Contemporary Amperex Technology (3750 HK)

<ul>
<li>On 10 August, Hang Seng Index launched a market consultation on potential changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> methodology.</li>
<li>If the proposals are approved, there will be 20 stocks added to the index in December creating a lot of flow and impact for the index constituents.</li>
<li>One way turnover is estimated at 13.4% leading to a round-trip trade of HK$73.3bn (US$9.3bn), so this could be implemented in a phased manner.</li>
</ul>


On 10 August, Hang Seng Index launched a market consultation on potential changes to the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) methodology.
If the proposals are approved, there will be 20 stocks added to the index in December creating a lot of flow and impact for the index constituents.
One way turnover is estimated at 13.4% leading to a round-trip trade of HK$73.3bn (US$9.3bn), so this could be implemented in a phased manner.


HSTECH Index: Market Consultation, 20 Adds in December, Trade of US$9.3bn

China

MiniMax Group is an artificial intelligence company that develops multimodal AI models and consumer applications. Its offerings include AI character apps like Talkie and Xingye, and video-generation services such as Hailuo AI. The company also creates proprietary foundation models capable of understanding, generating, and integrating various modalities including text, audio, images, video, and music. Headquartered in Shanghai, China, MiniMax was founded in December 2021.

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MiniMax (100 HK)

Anthropic's Leaked S-1 Vs. China's AI Tigers: The $2 Trillion Question

Leaked S-1: Anthropic out-grows and out-earns China's listed AI names, but a $518bn spend commitment and a >$2tn ask we can't fathom valuing keep...

Mo Aziz

MiniMax Group (100 HK) - There Is "Bubble" In Valuation

After the insight was published, share price of Minimax has dropped by 39%. This is far from over. The AI valuation bubble cannot be sustained by...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

This Week in AI (Sep 20-26): Opus 5.5 and GPT-6 Launch Cheaper; Data Center IPO Delays

This week in AI: Anthropic and OpenAI cut frontier-model costs, Grok 4.7 entered major coding channels, and financing stress hit infrastructure.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HSTECH Index: Market Consultation, 20 Adds in December, Trade of US$9.3bn

Following a market consult, there could be 20 adds for the index in Dec leading to a one-way turnover of 13.4% and a round-trip trade of US$9.3bn....

Brian Freitas

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Anthropic's Leaked S-1 Vs. China's AI Tigers: The $2 Trillion Question

Leaked S-1: Anthropic out-grows and out-earns China's listed AI names, but a $518bn spend commitment and a >$2tn ask we can't fathom valuing keep...

Mo Aziz

MiniMax Group (100 HK) - There Is "Bubble" In Valuation

After the insight was published, share price of Minimax has dropped by 39%. This is far from over. The AI valuation bubble cannot be sustained by...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

This Week in AI (Sep 20-26): Opus 5.5 and GPT-6 Launch Cheaper; Data Center IPO Delays

This week in AI: Anthropic and OpenAI cut frontier-model costs, Grok 4.7 entered major coding channels, and financing stress hit infrastructure.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

MiniMax (100 HK): Focus on Technical Advantages After Big Share Unlock

The stock plunged further after the company unlocked 48.9% of its total equity. However, the company still has tech advantages globally and...

Ming Lu

HSTECH Index: Market Consultation, 20 Adds in December, Trade of US$9.3bn

Following a market consult, there could be 20 adds for the index in Dec leading to a one-way turnover of 13.4% and a round-trip trade of US$9.3bn....

Brian Freitas