Independent Sell Side Equity Research Analyst, ChartSmarter

Douglas Busch

Independent Sell Side Equity Research Analyst

ChartSmarter

ChartSmarter is a service dedicated to the art of technical analysis.

On a daily basis we write up actionable ideas on a specific, major S&P sector on both the long and short side, in an easy yet thorough way. In the notes we give precise entries and exits, while looking to capture the "meat" of a trend.

Technical Analysis.

Technical Analysis

KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>KWEB giving an attractive entry point here, as it begins to outperform the domestic FDN.</li>
<li>Toyota&gt;Honda and look for that relationship to continue going forward.</li>
<li>JD&gt;BABA, a new dynamic divergence between the two, and my opinion is JD will be the leader in 2024 and beyond.</li>
</ul>


KWEB giving an attractive entry point here, as it begins to outperform the domestic FDN.
Toyota&gt;Honda and look for that relationship to continue going forward.
JD&gt;BABA, a new dynamic divergence between the two, and my opinion is JD will be the leader in 2024 and beyond.


KWEB Attractive, Toyota and JD.com Best in Breed

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Equity Capital Markets

TOP TOY International Group / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>TOP TOY is expected to IPO in 2026. The company has completed a ~$60M Series A round that was led by Temasek at a ~$1.3B post-money valuation in July.</li>
<li>In my insight, I discuss IPO valuation, update relative valuation table and examine competitive landscape among domestic and international toymakers.</li>
<li>TOP TOY revenue growth accelerated in 2025 coupled with improving profitability and growing free cash flows. TOP TOY was a major growth engine for MINISO’s business in 3Q.</li>
</ul>


TOP TOY is expected to IPO in 2026. The company has completed a ~$60M Series A round that was led by Temasek at a ~$1.3B post-money valuation in July.
In my insight, I discuss IPO valuation, update relative valuation table and examine competitive landscape among domestic and international toymakers.
TOP TOY revenue growth accelerated in 2025 coupled with improving profitability and growing free cash flows. TOP TOY was a major growth engine for MINISO’s business in 3Q.


TOP TOY IPO Valuation Analysis: Is TOP TOY The Next Breakout IPO in Hong Kong?

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Bloks Group shares returned ~47% for IPO investors as of today, trailing the HSI’s 30% gain. The stock peaked at HK$190+ and fell ~55% over the following four months.</li>
<li>Shares saw pressure after lockup restrictions expired in July. Until this month, the lockup provision had prevented the majority shareholder and other early investors from selling their shares. </li>
<li>The company’s revenue grew ~28% YoY in the first half of 2025, raising potential concerns of continued slowdown in sales of assembly character toys. Expect stock underperformance to continue.</li>
</ul>


Bloks Group shares returned ~47% for IPO investors as of today, trailing the HSI’s 30% gain. The stock peaked at HK$190+ and fell ~55% over the following four months.
Shares saw pressure after lockup restrictions expired in July. Until this month, the lockup provision had prevented the majority shareholder and other early investors from selling their shares. 
The company’s revenue grew ~28% YoY in the first half of 2025, raising potential concerns of continued slowdown in sales of assembly character toys. Expect stock underperformance to continue.


Bloks Group (0325.HK): Stock Premium Is Not Justified, Growth Has Slowed, ~30% Downside

<ul>
<li>TOP TOY International Group Limited, a world-class pop toy brand company from China, filed to go public in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>Founded in 2020, the brand has quickly positioned itself as a domestic rival to China’s Pop Mart, capitalizing on the country’s booming “blind box” and designer toy craze.</li>
<li>TOP TOY has shown strong growth and execution, going from RMB641m in sales of pop toy products in 2022 to RMB2,554m expected this year.</li>
</ul>


TOP TOY International Group Limited, a world-class pop toy brand company from China, filed to go public in Hong Kong.
Founded in 2020, the brand has quickly positioned itself as a domestic rival to China’s Pop Mart, capitalizing on the country’s booming “blind box” and designer toy craze.
TOP TOY has shown strong growth and execution, going from RMB641m in sales of pop toy products in 2022 to RMB2,554m expected this year.


TOP TOY IPO: From China To The World — Rapid Growth and Solid Profitability Under MINISO Group

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In <a href="https://skr.ma/6isxm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MINISO (9896 HK)'s (Possible) TOP TOY Spin-Off Is Priced In</a>, based on (then) available figures and applying a holding company discount, post spin-off, MINISO's upside appeared limited.</li>
<li>A listing application form has now been submitted to the HKEx, providing greater detail of TOP TOY's finances, figures vastly different to those in MINISO's recent segment accounts. </li>
<li>The Labubu craze has resulted in a ~200% increase in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart (9992 HK)</a>’s shares YTD. TOP TOY will be wanting to cash in on this exuberance. </li>
</ul>


In MINISO (9896 HK)'s (Possible) TOP TOY Spin-Off Is Priced In, based on (then) available figures and applying a holding company discount, post spin-off, MINISO's upside appeared limited.
A listing application form has now been submitted to the HKEx, providing greater detail of TOP TOY's finances, figures vastly different to those in MINISO's recent segment accounts. 
The Labubu craze has resulted in a ~200% increase in Pop Mart (9992 HK)’s shares YTD. TOP TOY will be wanting to cash in on this exuberance. 


Miniso (9896 HK)'s TOP TOY Angling For Labubu Mojo

China

MINISO Group Holding is a value retailer with a focus on offering products that are aesthetically pleasing, good-quality, and affordable.

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Miniso (MNSO US)

KWEB Attractive, Toyota and JD.com Best in Breed

Chinese softness feels like a rear view mirror story. Leaders in Japan likely to continue to flourish. Invest accordingly.

Douglas Busch

TOP TOY IPO Valuation Analysis: Is TOP TOY The Next Breakout IPO in Hong Kong?

TOP TOY, a fast-growing pop-culture collectibles brand company, is preparing for HK IPO. I have positive view of upcoming IPO and believe the...

Andrei Zakharov

Bloks Group (0325.HK): Stock Premium Is Not Justified, Growth Has Slowed, ~30% Downside

Bloks Group shares significantly underperformed over the last four months as IPO lockup expired and growth slowed in 2025. However, the stock...

Andrei Zakharov

TOP TOY IPO: From China To The World — Rapid Growth and Solid Profitability Under MINISO Group

China's TOP TOY set to go public in Hong Kong, challenging Pop Mart with impressive growth in the "blind box" segment and designer toy market.

Andrei Zakharov

Miniso (9896 HK)'s TOP TOY Angling For Labubu Mojo

TOP TOY's spin-off is now firmed. I see MINISO trading at a 19% discount to NAV even if TOP TOY is priced at a similar metric to Pop Mart (9992...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

KWEB Attractive, Toyota and JD.com Best in Breed

Chinese softness feels like a rear view mirror story. Leaders in Japan likely to continue to flourish. Invest accordingly.

Douglas Busch

TOP TOY IPO Valuation Analysis: Is TOP TOY The Next Breakout IPO in Hong Kong?

TOP TOY, a fast-growing pop-culture collectibles brand company, is preparing for HK IPO. I have positive view of upcoming IPO and believe the...

Andrei Zakharov

Bloks Group (0325.HK): Stock Premium Is Not Justified, Growth Has Slowed, ~30% Downside

​Bloks Group shares significantly underperformed over the last four months as IPO lockup expired and growth slowed in 2025. However, the stock...

Andrei Zakharov

TOP TOY IPO: From China To The World — Rapid Growth and Solid Profitability Under MINISO Group

​China's TOP TOY set to go public in Hong Kong, challenging Pop Mart with impressive growth in the "blind box" segment and designer toy market.

Andrei Zakharov

Miniso (9896 HK)'s TOP TOY Angling For Labubu Mojo

TOP TOY's spin-off is now firmed. I see MINISO trading at a 19% discount to NAV even if TOP TOY is priced at a similar metric to Pop Mart (9992...

David Blennerhassett

Bloks Group shares significantly underperformed over the last four months as IPO lockup expired and growth slowed in 2025. However, the stock...

China's TOP TOY set to go public in Hong Kong, challenging Pop Mart with impressive growth in the "blind box" segment and designer toy market.