Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our two previous Int'l Compass reports (Aug. 18 &amp; 24) we discussed that we were buyers on the pullback to the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>$93 on ACWI is 1+ year base support and a level that coincides with the 10-month uptrend. We remain bullish as long as the ACWI-US is above $93.</li>
<li>$93 on ACWI-US is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY can stay below respective resistance levels (4.3%-4.35% and $103.70-$105.70).</li>
</ul>


In our two previous Int'l Compass reports (Aug. 18 &amp; 24) we discussed that we were buyers on the pullback to the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
$93 on ACWI is 1+ year base support and a level that coincides with the 10-month uptrend. We remain bullish as long as the ACWI-US is above $93.
$93 on ACWI-US is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY can stay below respective resistance levels (4.3%-4.35% and $103.70-$105.70).


Further Declines in DXY, Sovereign Yields May Provide More Fuel for a Rally in Global Equities

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The slew of negative economic data for July traces its root to the inadequacy of industries Chinese government wants to promote towards generating employment, income and investments;</li>
<li>With overwhelming advantage in financing, US’s reshoring initiative is bound to succeed in its first iteration. </li>
<li>For China, boosting demand is no longer an option. Exporting deflation might be the only answer.</li>
</ul>


The slew of negative economic data for July traces its root to the inadequacy of industries Chinese government wants to promote towards generating employment, income and investments;
With overwhelming advantage in financing, US’s reshoring initiative is bound to succeed in its first iteration. 
For China, boosting demand is no longer an option. Exporting deflation might be the only answer.


[Blue Lotus Macro]: Underestimating the Pain but Unable to Turn Back

<ul>
<li>We view the rallies in Chinese Internet and Consumer names to be sustainable in C3Q23 as regulatory environment to be both favourable and macro environment to be conducive; </li>
<li>Our China Internet top picks are Meituan and Tencent, and investors could buy PDD and NetEase after 2Q23 earnings. </li>
<li>Domestic consumption will also bottom out, but sustainability only confines to a few, our top picks in China consumer names are Miniso, Luckin Coffee, and Atour.</li>
</ul>


We view the rallies in Chinese Internet and Consumer names to be sustainable in C3Q23 as regulatory environment to be both favourable and macro environment to be conducive; 
Our China Internet top picks are Meituan and Tencent, and investors could buy PDD and NetEase after 2Q23 earnings. 
Domestic consumption will also bottom out, but sustainability only confines to a few, our top picks in China consumer names are Miniso, Luckin Coffee, and Atour.


[Blue Lotus Sector Update]: Time to Buy China Internet and Consumer Names

<ul>
<li>700.HK/NTES/BILI: Tencent, NetEase and Bilibili receive game code approvals (+)</li>
<li>ZLAB：First generic version of Olaparib approved in China but impact on Nariparib should be small（/）</li>
<li>MNSO: Miniso opened its global flagship store in NY Times Square with 78k sales in first day</li>
</ul>


700.HK/NTES/BILI: Tencent, NetEase and Bilibili receive game code approvals (+)
ZLAB：First generic version of Olaparib approved in China but impact on Nariparib should be small（/）
MNSO: Miniso opened its global flagship store in NY Times Square with 78k sales in first day


China TMT Update(May 24) - 700.HK/NTES/BILI/ZLAB/MNSO: Tencent, NetEase, Bilibili Receive Game Code

<ul>
<li>We see the future, post decoupling world to have two operating systems, one surrounding US and the other surrounding China.</li>
<li>Both US and China will develop respective partners to complete their ecosystems. We will soon have a world running on two sets of standards</li>
<li>While the western world dominates the old order and the new frontiers, China is leading in the new order of energy, drug and manufacturing.</li>
</ul>


We see the future, post decoupling world to have two operating systems, one surrounding US and the other surrounding China.
Both US and China will develop respective partners to complete their ecosystems. We will soon have a world running on two sets of standards
While the western world dominates the old order and the new frontiers, China is leading in the new order of energy, drug and manufacturing.


[Blue Lotus Sector Update]: All Will Have a Bright Future

China

MINISO Group Holding is a value retailer with a focus on offering products that are aesthetically pleasing, good-quality, and affordable.

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Miniso (MNSO US)

Further Declines in DXY, Sovereign Yields May Provide More Fuel for a Rally in Global Equities

We continue to believe $93 on $ACWI is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield $TNX and $DXY can stay below their...

Vermilion Research

[Blue Lotus Macro]: Underestimating the Pain but Unable to Turn Back

The slew of negative economic data for July traces its root to the inadequacy of industries Chinese government wants to promote towards generating...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Sector Update]: Time to Buy China Internet and Consumer Names

We view the rallies in Chinese Internet and Consumer names to be sustainable in C3Q23 as regulatory environment to be both favourable and macro...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China TMT Update(May 24) - 700.HK/NTES/BILI/ZLAB/MNSO: Tencent, NetEase, Bilibili Receive Game Code

700.HK/NTES/BILI: Tencent, NetEase and Bilibili receive game code (+)；ZLAB：First generic version of Olaparib approved in China（/）；MNSO: Miniso...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Sector Update]: All Will Have a Bright Future

We see the future, post decoupling world to have two operating systems, one surrounding US and the other surrounding China.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

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