Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In this review, we predict that Thai equities will rally in October and early November before another major correction in December with the Fed rate hike. In the short term, we expect Thai banks to do well, as they and Asian counterparts (eg. Singapore's DBS) benefit in terms of relative growth if the US banks are hampered by the regulator's decision to increase capital requirements of the largest banks. We also see two companies run by Thailand's second richest tycoon Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi, namely BJC and Thai Beverage, outperforming companies run by the larger CP Group, primarily due to corporate action and a market's tilt towards consumers and retailing sectors. Needless to say, we will be tactically overweight on banks, retailers, and consumers over the next two months.We also discuss: 1) the overall upgrade of Thailand's growth expectations on the back of stronger domestic consumption; and 2) highight the government's five strategic sectors, named 'The 5 S-Curves'.

In this review, we predict that Thai equities will rally in October and early November before another major correction in December with the Fed rate hike. In the short term, we expect Thai banks to do well, as they and Asian counterparts (eg. Singapore's DBS) benefit in terms of relative growth if the US banks are hampered by the regulator's decision to increase capital requirements of the largest banks. We also see two companies run by Thailand's second richest tycoon Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi, namely BJC and Thai Beverage, outperforming companies run by the larger CP Group, primarily due to corporate action and a market's tilt towards consumers and retailing sectors. Needless to say, we will be tactically overweight on banks, retailers, and consumers over the next two months.We also discuss: 1) the overall upgrade of Thailand's growth expectations on the back of stronger domestic consumption; and 2) highight the government's five strategic sectors, named 'The 5 S-Curves'.

American Capital Requirement Increase: Charoen and Thai Banks to Lead October Rally

Equity Bottom-Up

The sharing economy encompasses ride hailing and apps encouraging time sharing of property via Airbnb. Apart from obvious risk to community security, increased crime rate, and tax evasion, it also threatens legitimate business owners in the hotel industry who play by the rules and pay corporate (and other) taxes. In Thailand, the largest hotel player in MINT, but smaller players like Laguna (LRH) and Erawan (ERW), one of our five top picks, may be even more affected. Property giant LH also offers service apartments and an 8% yield. They too may be caught in the cross-hairs of Airbnb. We also provide some basic jot-downs from our last meeting with MINT.

The sharing economy encompasses ride hailing and apps encouraging time sharing of property via Airbnb. Apart from obvious risk to community security, increased crime rate, and tax evasion, it also threatens legitimate business owners in the hotel industry who play by the rules and pay corporate (and other) taxes. In Thailand, the largest hotel player in MINT, but smaller players like Laguna (LRH) and Erawan (ERW), one of our five top picks, may be even more affected. Property giant LH also offers service apartments and an 8% yield. They too may be caught in the cross-hairs of Airbnb. We also provide some basic jot-downs from our last meeting with MINT.

Silicon September 5.0: Sharing Economy...Phantom Menace for Hotel Industry

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

<ul><li>Of the actively traded stocks listed on SGX, Singapore Medical Group saw the biggest jump in volume in August compared to its three-month average volume. The stock also gained 91.4% in August and earlier in the month reported a turnaround net profit of S$0.8 million for 1H2016 compared to a net loss of S$0.1 million in 1H2015.</li></ul><ul><li>
Consumer Staples plays, Sheng Siong Group and Dairy Farm International Holdings were also amongst the 10 actively traded stocks that saw the biggest jump in August volume.…</li></ul>

Of the actively traded stocks listed on SGX, Singapore Medical Group saw the biggest jump in volume in August compared to its three-month average volume. The stock also gained 91.4% in August and earlier in the month reported a turnaround net profit of S$0.8 million for 1H2016 compared to a net loss of S$0.1 million in 1H2015.
Consumer Staples plays, Sheng Siong Group and Dairy Farm International Holdings were also amongst the 10 actively traded stocks that saw the biggest jump in August volume.…

10 Biggest Volume Jumpers in August Spanned Seven Sectors

We recently took gains on Minor and bought a stake in Erawan, our new top pick in the hotel sector. Unlike the two larger hotel groups, Erawan is stronger in low-cost segment (roughly a quarter of its business) and is a purer play in the hotel sector. Of the smaller operators, we like Laguna Resorts (LRH) as a long-term acquisition target. In this review, we also explain why we are not interested in Dusit Thani (DTC) despite its seemingly compelling valuations.

We recently took gains on Minor and bought a stake in Erawan, our new top pick in the hotel sector. Unlike the two larger hotel groups, Erawan is stronger in low-cost segment (roughly a quarter of its business) and is a purer play in the hotel sector. Of the smaller operators, we like Laguna Resorts (LRH) as a long-term acquisition target. In this review, we also explain why we are not interested in Dusit Thani (DTC) despite its seemingly compelling valuations.

Global Macro Strategy

Callum Henderson

Macroeconomics

* The multi-year USD rally has been powerful, but in my view will gradually end and reverse this year* Fed tightening is not necessarily USD-positive and will not be this time* The global economy needs a weaker USD, which will help loosen global monetary conditions* The focus of investors has switched from short beta to relative value - 'smart alpha'* Relative value in and between EM assets adds significant alpha to benchmarked portfolios

* The multi-year USD rally has been powerful, but in my view will gradually end and reverse this year* Fed tightening is not necessarily USD-positive and will not be this time* The global economy needs a weaker USD, which will help loosen global monetary conditions* The focus of investors has switched from short beta to relative value - 'smart alpha'* Relative value in and between EM assets adds significant alpha to benchmarked portfolios

Asia Calling: Relative Value in EM - From Short Beta to Smart Alpha

Thailand

Minor International PCL is a global company focused on three primary businesses including restaurants, hotels and lifestyle brands distribution.

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Minor International (MINT TB)

American Capital Requirement Increase: Charoen and Thai Banks to Lead October Rally

In this review, we predict that Thai equities will rally in October and early November before another major correction in December with the Fed...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

10 Biggest Volume Jumpers in August Spanned Seven Sectors

Of the actively traded stocks listed on SGX, Singapore Medical Group saw the biggest jump in volume in August compared to its three-month average...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Erawan: Low-Cost Hotel Champion

We recently took gains on Minor and bought a stake in Erawan, our new top pick in the hotel sector. Unlike the two larger hotel groups, Erawan is...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Asia Calling: Relative Value in EM - From Short Beta to Smart Alpha

* The multi-year USD rally has been powerful, but in my view will gradually end and reverse this year* Fed tightening is not necessarily...

Callum Henderson

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

American Capital Requirement Increase: Charoen and Thai Banks to Lead October Rally

In this review, we predict that Thai equities will rally in October and early November before another major correction in December with the Fed...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Silicon September 5.0: Sharing Economy...Phantom Menace for Hotel Industry

The sharing economy encompasses ride hailing and apps encouraging time sharing of property via Airbnb. Apart from obvious risk to community...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

10 Biggest Volume Jumpers in August Spanned Seven Sectors

Of the actively traded stocks listed on SGX, Singapore Medical Group saw the biggest jump in volume in August compared to its three-month average...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Erawan: Low-Cost Hotel Champion

We recently took gains on Minor and bought a stake in Erawan, our new top pick in the hotel sector. Unlike the two larger hotel groups, Erawan is...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Asia Calling: Relative Value in EM - From Short Beta to Smart Alpha

* The multi-year USD rally has been powerful, but in my view will gradually end and reverse this year* Fed tightening is not necessarily...

Callum Henderson