Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of Bursa stocks as of Nov 14th. The aggregated short interest is USD444m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in UEM Sunrise, Tenaga Nasional, Eco World Develop, Genting Malaysia, CIMB.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of Bursa stocks as of Nov 14th. The aggregated short interest is USD444m.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in UEM Sunrise, Tenaga Nasional, Eco World Develop, Genting Malaysia, CIMB.


Bursa Short Interest Weekly (Nov 14th): UEM Sunrise, Tenaga Nasional, Eco World Develop

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/westports-holdings-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3954:1" rel="noopener">Westports Holdings (WPRTS MK)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hap-seng-consolidated-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13036:1" rel="noopener">Hap Seng Consolidated (HAP MK)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kuala-lumpur-composite-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22913:1" rel="noopener">Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) (FBMKLCI INDEX)</a> after the close of trading on 17 December.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hap-seng-consolidated-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13036:1" rel="noopener">Hap Seng Consolidated (HAP MK)</a> is a delete on liquidity and there will be over 5 days of ADV to sell. The impact on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/westports-holdings-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3954:1" rel="noopener">Westports Holdings (WPRTS MK)</a> is smaller.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hap-seng-consolidated-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13036:1" rel="noopener">Hap Seng Consolidated (HAP MK)</a> could drop in the short term but underperformance vs its peers could provide a buying opportunity, especially close to implementation date.</li>
</ul>



Westports Holdings (WPRTS MK) will replace Hap Seng Consolidated (HAP MK) in the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) (FBMKLCI INDEX) after the close of trading on 17 December.

Hap Seng Consolidated (HAP MK) is a delete on liquidity and there will be over 5 days of ADV to sell. The impact on Westports Holdings (WPRTS MK) is smaller.

Hap Seng Consolidated (HAP MK) could drop in the short term but underperformance vs its peers could provide a buying opportunity, especially close to implementation date.


KLCI Index Rebalance: Westports Replaces Hap Seng

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), TA Securities Holdings Berhad

TA Securities Holdings Bhd

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Equity Bottom-Up

<div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

<p>Since our Original on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/asia-buyback-forecasting-which-companies-are-likely-to-raise-cut-buybacks" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47196" rel="noopener">Asia Buyback Forecasting | Which Companies Are Likely to Raise/Cut Buybacks?</a>, published on Jan 31 2021, this is our first quarterly update. Below we provide updated results from our models based on latest reported fiscal year-end financials. We also discuss companies where there is notable change in our conviction level based on updated data.</p>
<p>At the webinar in March, there was also a request for conducting price movement analysis corresponding to our buyback raise/cut outlook for our back-test results. This analysis is now available. Our results show a decent outperformance/underperformance corresponding to buyback raise/cut prediction, suggesting that users of our models will benefit from guiding their investment decisions based on our buyback raise/cut outlook.</p>

Since our Original on Asia Buyback Forecasting | Which Companies Are Likely to Raise/Cut Buybacks?, published on Jan 31 2021, this is our first quarterly update. Below we provide updated results from our models based on latest reported fiscal year-end financials. We also discuss companies where there is notable change in our conviction level based on updated data.
At the webinar in March, there was also a request for conducting price movement analysis corresponding to our buyback raise/cut outlook for our back-test results. This analysis is now available. Our results show a decent outperformance/underperformance corresponding to buyback raise/cut prediction, suggesting that users of our models will benefit from guiding their investment decisions based on our buyback raise/cut outlook.

Asia Buyback Forecasting | Quarterly Update 1.0

<div>
<p>In this Smartkarma Original, we bring to you a quantitative approach for identifying Asian companies that are likely to raise/cut buyback. Applying this approach to a universe of 920+ companies listed across Asia helped us identify 40+ and 50+ companies that have a high likelihood of raising and cutting buybacks, respectively, over the next five years.</p>
</div>
<div>
<div>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p><strong>What's Original?</strong></p>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>We have two separate models, one for forecasting Buyback Raise and the other for Buyback Cut.</li>
<li>Our back test results are very encouraging with &gt;85% hit rate for our Buyback Raise model and &gt;94% hit rate for our Buyback Cut model.</li>
<li>For our Buyback Raise model, we differentiate from other quantitative buyback models by incorporating competing uses of cash like inorganic acquisitions through “Goodwill as % of Total Assets” parameter. Based on our analysis, we have also determined that, contrary to usual perception, any dividend payout is not a competing use of cash vs buyback but a healthy sign of capital return discipline and have incorporated it accordingly in our model. We also use long-term ROE vs growth trends to filter companies where the cash levels maybe low but the capability to do buyback with time can grow significantly. At the same time, we ensure to weed off very high growth companies that may have high re-investment needs through our carefully selected threshold for the "Long-term Revenue CAGR" parameter. </li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<h3>Insight Flow</h3>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>Live Dashboard</li>
<li> Methodology
<ul style="list-style-type: circle;">
<li>Buyback Raise Model</li>
<li>Buyback Cut Model</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Universe</li>
<li>Back Test Results
<ul style="list-style-type: circle;">
<li>Buyback Raise Model</li>
<li>Buyback Cut Model</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Model Results
<ul style="list-style-type: circle;">
<li>Summary Statistics</li>
<li>Companies with High Probability of Buyback Raise</li>
<li>Companies with High Probability of Buyback Cut</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Buyback Timing</li>
<li>Model Risks &amp; Limitations</li>
<li>Conclusion</li>
</ul>
</div>


In this Smartkarma Original, we bring to you a quantitative approach for identifying Asian companies that are likely to raise/cut buyback. Applying this approach to a universe of 920+ companies listed across Asia helped us identify 40+ and 50+ companies that have a high likelihood of raising and cutting buybacks, respectively, over the next five years.




What's Original?

We have two separate models, one for forecasting Buyback Raise and the other for Buyback Cut.
Our back test results are very encouraging with &gt;85% hit rate for our Buyback Raise model and &gt;94% hit rate for our Buyback Cut model.
For our Buyback Raise model, we differentiate from other quantitative buyback models by incorporating competing uses of cash like inorganic acquisitions through “Goodwill as % of Total Assets” parameter. Based on our analysis, we have also determined that, contrary to usual perception, any dividend payout is not a competing use of cash vs buyback but a healthy sign of capital return discipline and have incorporated it accordingly in our model. We also use long-term ROE vs growth trends to filter companies where the cash levels maybe low but the capability to do buyback with time can grow significantly. At the same time, we ensure to weed off very high growth companies that may have high re-investment needs through our carefully selected threshold for the "Long-term Revenue CAGR" parameter. 





Insight Flow



Live Dashboard
 Methodology

Buyback Raise Model
Buyback Cut Model


Universe
Back Test Results

Buyback Raise Model
Buyback Cut Model


Model Results

Summary Statistics
Companies with High Probability of Buyback Raise
Companies with High Probability of Buyback Cut


Buyback Timing
Model Risks &amp; Limitations
Conclusion



Asia Buyback Forecasting | Which Companies Are Likely to Raise/Cut Buybacks?

Malaysia

MISC Berhad owns ships and operates shipping and related services. Through its subsidiaries, the Company provides trucking, warehousing and forwarding service, containers and prime movers repair, and container haulage. MISC Berhad also has operation in trucking and launch operator.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Misc Bhd (MISC MK)

Bursa Short Interest Weekly (Nov 14th): UEM Sunrise, Tenaga Nasional, Eco World Develop

We analyzed Bursa Malaysia short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in UEM Sunrise, Tenaga Nasional, Eco...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

KLCI Index Rebalance: Westports Replaces Hap Seng

Westports Holdings will replace Hap Seng Consolidated in the KLCI at the December rebalance. HAP MK is a liquidity delete and passive trackers will...

Brian Freitas

Delayed Recovery of Petroleum Rates

Buy Misc Berhad: Delayed Recovery of Petroleum Rates. - By: TA Securities Holdings Bhd

TA Securities Holdings Bhd

Asia Buyback Forecasting | Quarterly Update 1.0

This is our first quarterly update since our Original on Buyback Forecasting. We provide updated results based on latest year-end financials.

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Asia Buyback Forecasting | Which Companies Are Likely to Raise/Cut Buybacks?

A predictive quantitative model for Asian companies to help determine which companies are likely to raise/cut buybacks in future.

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)