Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Total sales remained weak in September, dropping 3.5% YoY. In 1H of FY Mar-24, sales were down 4.3%. Month-to-month, though, they have been trending sideways.</li>
<li>Die Components have been holding up best, followed by Factory Automation. The VONA e-commerce business has been more volatile, but still shows a lack of traction.</li>
<li>Operating profit dropped 31% in 1H, but management is guiding for a 23% increase in 2H. This looks optimistic, but most of the bad news should be in the price.</li>
</ul>


Total sales remained weak in September, dropping 3.5% YoY. In 1H of FY Mar-24, sales were down 4.3%. Month-to-month, though, they have been trending sideways.
Die Components have been holding up best, followed by Factory Automation. The VONA e-commerce business has been more volatile, but still shows a lack of traction.
Operating profit dropped 31% in 1H, but management is guiding for a 23% increase in 2H. This looks optimistic, but most of the bad news should be in the price.


Misumi Group (9962 JP): Weak Sales in September, but Most Bad News Discounted

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/techno-associe-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3893:1" rel="noopener">Techno Associe (8249 JP)</a> has recommended <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10496:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Electric Industries (5802 JP)</a>’s tender offer of JPY1,695 per share, an 36.9% premium to the undisturbed price (2 February).</li>
<li>The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the offer has been set to meet the 66.67% ownership ratio.</li>
<li>The tender offer is attractive and represents an all-time share price high. This suggests a done deal. The tender offer period is from 3 February to 22 March.</li>
</ul>



Techno Associe (8249 JP) has recommended Sumitomo Electric Industries (5802 JP)’s tender offer of JPY1,695 per share, an 36.9% premium to the undisturbed price (2 February).
The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the offer has been set to meet the 66.67% ownership ratio.
The tender offer is attractive and represents an all-time share price high. This suggests a done deal. The tender offer period is from 3 February to 22 March.


Techno Associe (8249 JP): JPY1,695 Tender Offer from Sumitomo Electric

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>At the October rebalance, there are 970 stocks that will have a lower FFW while 114 stocks will have a higher FFW. 493 stocks will undergo a Phased Weight Reduction.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 2.54% resulting in a one-way trade of ¥1.815tn. 500 stocks have over 4 days ADV to trade, 100 stocks have over 9 days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Setting the threshold at +/-US$50m to trade, the stocks with inflows have outperformed the stocks with outflows by 6.5% over the last four months.</li>
</ul>


At the October rebalance, there are 970 stocks that will have a lower FFW while 114 stocks will have a higher FFW. 493 stocks will undergo a Phased Weight Reduction.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.54% resulting in a one-way trade of ¥1.815tn. 500 stocks have over 4 days ADV to trade, 100 stocks have over 9 days ADV to trade.
Setting the threshold at +/-US$50m to trade, the stocks with inflows have outperformed the stocks with outflows by 6.5% over the last four months.


TOPIX October Rebalance: BIG One With ¥1.8tn a Side to Trade

<ul>
<li>The shares look cheap on FY Mar-23 guidance, but operating profit has dropped back after a surge and 1H looks difficult.</li>
<li>On the positive side, the VONA e-commerce business is catching up with Factory Automation as a source of profit. Annual sales and profitability have reached new highs.</li>
<li>Management has rebalanced the business. The main risk now is macro-economic. </li>
</ul>


The shares look cheap on FY Mar-23 guidance, but operating profit has dropped back after a surge and 1H looks difficult.
On the positive side, the VONA e-commerce business is catching up with Factory Automation as a source of profit. Annual sales and profitability have reached new highs.
Management has rebalanced the business. The main risk now is macro-economic. 


Misumi Group (9962 JP): Watch Out for Recession

<ul>
<li>The shares have dropped back nearly 30% and their valuation is now reasonable. Guidance looks reasonable, but recent sales and profit trends show weakness.</li>
<li>Factory Automation, Die Components and the VONA e-commerce business have all recovered.</li>
<li>A new era of higher profitability may be at hand, but in view of market and economic uncertainty, approach with caution.</li>
</ul>


The shares have dropped back nearly 30% and their valuation is now reasonable. Guidance looks reasonable, but recent sales and profit trends show weakness.
Factory Automation, Die Components and the VONA e-commerce business have all recovered.
A new era of higher profitability may be at hand, but in view of market and economic uncertainty, approach with caution.


Misumi Group (9962): Approach with Caution

Japan

MISUMI Group Inc. distributes precision machinery parts by mail order. The products include a variety of components such as press die, plastic mold, automated machinery, pc & network, and wiring.  The Company also sells supplies for factories, hospitals, and restaurants and semi-conductors by mail order.

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Misumi Group (9962 JP)