IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lawson-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1040:1" rel="noopener">Lawson Inc (2651 JP)</a> has announced that the pre-condition for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1" rel="noopener">KDDI Corp (9433 JP)</a> tender offer is satisfied. The offer terms are unchanged at JPY10,360 per share. </li>
<li>The offer is arguably light due to the market re-rating, does not reflect significant synergies and is below the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range. </li>
<li>Nevertheless, the offer will likely succeed as it represents an all-time high, with no vocal opposition, an achievable 30.2% minority acceptance rate, and the shares never trading through terms. </li>
</ul>



Lawson Inc (2651 JP) has announced that the pre-condition for the KDDI Corp (9433 JP) tender offer is satisfied. The offer terms are unchanged at JPY10,360 per share. 
The offer is arguably light due to the market re-rating, does not reflect significant synergies and is below the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range. 
Nevertheless, the offer will likely succeed as it represents an all-time high, with no vocal opposition, an achievable 30.2% minority acceptance rate, and the shares never trading through terms. 


Lawson (2651 JP): KDDI Corp (9433 JP) Tender Offer Launches

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The first piece had a question mark in the title. This one has an exclamation point. The exclamation point has value for one investor. Other people? Not so much.</li>
<li>Today post-close we got the deal. I was a little surprised it came this fast, but it's now mostly done it appears - largely as predicted in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tsuruha-3391-and-welcia-3141-aeon-tsuruha-stake-buy-followed-by-merger" target="_blank" rel="noopener">last piece</a>.</li>
<li>There are things one can probably read into the details. It is probably worth thinking about those, and how those details affect the industry. </li>
</ul>


The first piece had a question mark in the title. This one has an exclamation point. The exclamation point has value for one investor. Other people? Not so much.
Today post-close we got the deal. I was a little surprised it came this fast, but it's now mostly done it appears - largely as predicted in the last piece.
There are things one can probably read into the details. It is probably worth thinking about those, and how those details affect the industry. 


Tsuruha (3391) And Welcia (3141) - Aeon Tsuruha Stake Buy Followed by Merger! [Redux]

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>US economic data while surprising on the upside fails to buoy the USD vs the JPY</li>
<li>BOJ awaiting shunto talks for more evidence of a sustained move out of deflation</li>
<li>What are the implications for global markets if mass repatriation of Japanese capital</li>
</ul>


US economic data while surprising on the upside fails to buoy the USD vs the JPY
BOJ awaiting shunto talks for more evidence of a sustained move out of deflation
What are the implications for global markets if mass repatriation of Japanese capital


The Bank of Japan Plays Footsie with the Market-Will They or Won’t They?

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Many are asking why KDDI would want to buy 50% of Lawson, Japan's third biggest convenience store chain.</li>
<li>Some more imaginative analysts suggest this could be just the first step towards KDDI merging with Rakuten in order to beat Amazon.</li>
<li>The more likely future is an ecosystem to challenge Rakuten and LY Corp (Yahoo etc), starting with points and payments and evolving to other Fintech, e-commerce and health.</li>
</ul>


Many are asking why KDDI would want to buy 50% of Lawson, Japan's third biggest convenience store chain.
Some more imaginative analysts suggest this could be just the first step towards KDDI merging with Rakuten in order to beat Amazon.
The more likely future is an ecosystem to challenge Rakuten and LY Corp (Yahoo etc), starting with points and payments and evolving to other Fintech, e-commerce and health.


KDDI and Lawson: Building an Ecosystem from a Base of Loyalty Points

<ul>
<li>Aeon will almost definitely increase its stake in Tsuruha Holdings, which on its own will catalyse drugstore competitors to consider their mergeable options.</li>
<li>Tsuruha MAY merge with Welcia under Aeon and just talk of this will catalyse drugstore competitors even more.</li>
<li>But the ongoing fusion of drugstore retailing and FMCG formats like supermarkets and convenience stores, will also spur the entire FMCG sector to respond to Aeon's massive potential dominance.</li>
</ul>


Aeon will almost definitely increase its stake in Tsuruha Holdings, which on its own will catalyse drugstore competitors to consider their mergeable options.
Tsuruha MAY merge with Welcia under Aeon and just talk of this will catalyse drugstore competitors even more.
But the ongoing fusion of drugstore retailing and FMCG formats like supermarkets and convenience stores, will also spur the entire FMCG sector to respond to Aeon's massive potential dominance.


Aeon (Maybe) Gets Tsuruha, Could Trigger Wave of Mergers in the Sector (And Beyond)

Japan

Mitsubishi Corporation is a general trading company.  The Company has business groups such as New Business Initiatives, IT & Electronics, Fuels, Metals, Machinery, Chemicals, Living Essentials, and Professional Services.  Mitsubishi diversifies by satellite communications through a joint venture.

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Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)

Lawson (2651 JP): KDDI Corp (9433 JP) Tender Offer Launches

On balance, the offer will likely succeed. At the last close and for a 7 May payment, the gross and annualised spread is 0.5% and 5.4%, respectively.

Arun George

Tsuruha (3391) And Welcia (3141) - Aeon Tsuruha Stake Buy Followed by Merger! [Redux]

The idea of holding the potential targets (Sundrug, Sugi, Cosmo, Kusuri no Aoki, Create SD, Ain, Nihon Chozai) against a short (or implied short)...

Travis Lundy

The Bank of Japan Plays Footsie with the Market-Will They or Won’t They?

Potential impact on global markets from Japanese capital repatriation. Despite positive US economic data, the USD is no longer strengthening...

Rikki Malik

KDDI and Lawson: Building an Ecosystem from a Base of Loyalty Points

KDDI's acquisition of 50% of Lawson is probably a strategic move towards building an ecosystem to compete with Rakuten and LY, using loyalty...

Michael Causton

Aeon (Maybe) Gets Tsuruha, Could Trigger Wave of Mergers in the Sector (And Beyond)

Aeon's potential increased stake in Tsuruha Holdings and possible merger with Welcia will likely prompt drugstore competitors to consider their...

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Lawson (2651 JP): KDDI Corp (9433 JP) Tender Offer Launches

On balance, the offer will likely succeed. At the last close and for a 7 May payment, the gross and annualised spread is 0.5% and 5.4%, respectively.

Arun George

Tsuruha (3391) And Welcia (3141) - Aeon Tsuruha Stake Buy Followed by Merger! [Redux]

The idea of holding the potential targets (Sundrug, Sugi, Cosmo, Kusuri no Aoki, Create SD, Ain, Nihon Chozai) against a short (or implied short)...

Travis Lundy

The Bank of Japan Plays Footsie with the Market-Will They or Won’t They?

Potential impact on global markets from Japanese capital repatriation. ​Despite positive US economic data, the USD is no longer strengthening...

Rikki Malik

KDDI and Lawson: Building an Ecosystem from a Base of Loyalty Points

​KDDI's acquisition of 50% of Lawson is probably a strategic move towards building an ecosystem to compete with Rakuten and LY, using loyalty...

Michael Causton

Aeon (Maybe) Gets Tsuruha, Could Trigger Wave of Mergers in the Sector (And Beyond)

​Aeon's potential increased stake in Tsuruha Holdings and possible merger with Welcia will likely prompt drugstore competitors to consider their...

Michael Causton

Potential impact on global markets from Japanese capital repatriation. Despite positive US economic data, the USD is no longer strengthening...

KDDI's acquisition of 50% of Lawson is probably a strategic move towards building an ecosystem to compete with Rakuten and LY, using loyalty...

Aeon's potential increased stake in Tsuruha Holdings and possible merger with Welcia will likely prompt drugstore competitors to consider their...