IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei reports that Carlyle is in the final stages of buying <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20668:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)</a>’s 35% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kfc-holdings-japan-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12358:1" rel="noopener">Kfc Holdings Japan (9873 JP)</a>, which will result in a tender offer. </li>
<li>The structure will likely be similar to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1" rel="noopener">KDDI Corp (9433 JP)</a>/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lawson-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1040:1" rel="noopener">Lawson Inc (2651 JP)</a> tender, where MitCorp provides an irrevocable NOT to accept but vote for share consolidation.</li>
<li>The shares have been up 33.6% since Nikkei flagged the sale on 28 February. KFC Japan will trade in line with peers’ multiples at a JPY5,700 offer.  </li>
</ul>


The Nikkei reports that Carlyle is in the final stages of buying Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)’s 35% stake in Kfc Holdings Japan (9873 JP), which will result in a tender offer. 
The structure will likely be similar to the KDDI Corp (9433 JP)/ Lawson Inc (2651 JP) tender, where MitCorp provides an irrevocable NOT to accept but vote for share consolidation.
The shares have been up 33.6% since Nikkei flagged the sale on 28 February. KFC Japan will trade in line with peers’ multiples at a JPY5,700 offer.  


KFC Holdings Japan (9873 JP): Carlyle Edging Towards a Tender Offer

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>The Japanese Financial Services Agency has asked the general insurers to reduce/eliminate their cross-shareholdings.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sompo-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:632:1" rel="noopener">Sompo Holdings (8630 JP)</a> had a stake over US$100m in at least 16 listed Japanese stocks, amounting to a total of around US$6bn.</li>
<li>In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.</li>
</ul>


The Japanese Financial Services Agency has asked the general insurers to reduce/eliminate their cross-shareholdings.

Sompo Holdings (8630 JP) had a stake over US$100m in at least 16 listed Japanese stocks, amounting to a total of around US$6bn.
In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.


Sompo Holdings Cross-Shareholding - At Least US$8bn of Cross-Shareholding to Sell

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>KDDI has announced the launch tomorrow of its Tender Offer to buy out the minorities in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lawson-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1040:1" rel="noopener">Lawson Inc (2651 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>It's still too cheap. It is still a somewhat non-transparent and unfair process as far as I can tell. And it does not adhere to the METI Fair M&amp;A Guidelines. </li>
<li>There SHOULD BE some activist interest to get KDDI to bump but it is not clear that will show up. </li>
</ul>


KDDI has announced the launch tomorrow of its Tender Offer to buy out the minorities in Lawson Inc (2651 JP). 
It's still too cheap. It is still a somewhat non-transparent and unfair process as far as I can tell. And it does not adhere to the METI Fair M&amp;A Guidelines. 
There SHOULD BE some activist interest to get KDDI to bump but it is not clear that will show up. 


KDDI Launches Tender To Buy Out Lawson (2651) - Still Far Too Cheap

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lawson-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1040:1" rel="noopener">Lawson Inc (2651 JP)</a> has announced that the pre-condition for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1" rel="noopener">KDDI Corp (9433 JP)</a> tender offer is satisfied. The offer terms are unchanged at JPY10,360 per share. </li>
<li>The offer is arguably light due to the market re-rating, does not reflect significant synergies and is below the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range. </li>
<li>Nevertheless, the offer will likely succeed as it represents an all-time high, with no vocal opposition, an achievable 30.2% minority acceptance rate, and the shares never trading through terms. </li>
</ul>



Lawson Inc (2651 JP) has announced that the pre-condition for the KDDI Corp (9433 JP) tender offer is satisfied. The offer terms are unchanged at JPY10,360 per share. 
The offer is arguably light due to the market re-rating, does not reflect significant synergies and is below the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range. 
Nevertheless, the offer will likely succeed as it represents an all-time high, with no vocal opposition, an achievable 30.2% minority acceptance rate, and the shares never trading through terms. 


Lawson (2651 JP): KDDI Corp (9433 JP) Tender Offer Launches

<ul>
<li>The first piece had a question mark in the title. This one has an exclamation point. The exclamation point has value for one investor. Other people? Not so much.</li>
<li>Today post-close we got the deal. I was a little surprised it came this fast, but it's now mostly done it appears - largely as predicted in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tsuruha-3391-and-welcia-3141-aeon-tsuruha-stake-buy-followed-by-merger" target="_blank" rel="noopener">last piece</a>.</li>
<li>There are things one can probably read into the details. It is probably worth thinking about those, and how those details affect the industry. </li>
</ul>


The first piece had a question mark in the title. This one has an exclamation point. The exclamation point has value for one investor. Other people? Not so much.
Today post-close we got the deal. I was a little surprised it came this fast, but it's now mostly done it appears - largely as predicted in the last piece.
There are things one can probably read into the details. It is probably worth thinking about those, and how those details affect the industry. 


Tsuruha (3391) And Welcia (3141) - Aeon Tsuruha Stake Buy Followed by Merger! [Redux]

Japan

Mitsubishi Corporation is a general trading company.  The Company has business groups such as New Business Initiatives, IT & Electronics, Fuels, Metals, Machinery, Chemicals, Living Essentials, and Professional Services.  Mitsubishi diversifies by satellite communications through a joint venture.

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Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)

KFC Holdings Japan (9873 JP): Carlyle Edging Towards a Tender Offer

The shares have increased 33.6% since Nikkei flagged the sale on 28 February. KFC Japan will trade in line with peers’ multiples at a JPY5,700 offer.

Arun George

Sompo Holdings Cross-Shareholding - At Least US$8bn of Cross-Shareholding to Sell

The Japanese Financial Services Agency has asked the general insurers to reduce/eliminate their cross-shareholdings. Sompo had a stake of over...

Sumeet Singh

KDDI Launches Tender To Buy Out Lawson (2651) - Still Far Too Cheap

The KDDI Tender Offer for Lawson actually makes some sense. There are significant synergies available. There is growth. But the valuation doesn't...

Travis Lundy

Lawson (2651 JP): KDDI Corp (9433 JP) Tender Offer Launches

On balance, the offer will likely succeed. At the last close and for a 7 May payment, the gross and annualised spread is 0.5% and 5.4%, respectively.

Arun George

Tsuruha (3391) And Welcia (3141) - Aeon Tsuruha Stake Buy Followed by Merger! [Redux]

The idea of holding the potential targets (Sundrug, Sugi, Cosmo, Kusuri no Aoki, Create SD, Ain, Nihon Chozai) against a short (or implied short)...

Travis Lundy

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