Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Gan & Lee Pharmaceuticals / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment</li>
<li>Short-Term supports to watch on ACWI-US continue to be $132 (testing now), $130, $128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50. All signs point to the ACWI-US uptrend continuing for the foreseeable future.</li>
<li>Upgrading China to Overweight; Europe Breaking Out; Japan Also Remains Attractive. Buys in Consumer Discretionary (primarily autos/parts), Industrials, Services, Health Care, Materials, Financials, and Real Estate</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment
Short-Term supports to watch on ACWI-US continue to be $132 (testing now), $130, $128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50. All signs point to the ACWI-US uptrend continuing for the foreseeable future.
Upgrading China to Overweight; Europe Breaking Out; Japan Also Remains Attractive. Buys in Consumer Discretionary (primarily autos/parts), Industrials, Services, Health Care, Materials, Financials, and Real Estate


Upgrading China to Overweight; Europe Breaking Out

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>We use quantamental screens to identify overvalued stocks in Asia, with weak fundamentals – consistently low earnings growth, forecast return ratios less than cost of capital, and over-leveraged balance sheets.</li>
<li>We screen Asia-listed stocks above US$1bn market cap on declining EPS CAGR over next 2 years, less than 10% ROE, higher than 1x PEG and P/BV, more than 80% D/E.</li>
<li>We identify 30 stocks: 11 from HK/China, 9 from Japan, 4 from Taiwan, 3 from India, and one each from Korea, Malaysia and Singapore. Financials, property, industrials dominate the list.</li>
</ul>


We use quantamental screens to identify overvalued stocks in Asia, with weak fundamentals – consistently low earnings growth, forecast return ratios less than cost of capital, and over-leveraged balance sheets.
We screen Asia-listed stocks above US$1bn market cap on declining EPS CAGR over next 2 years, less than 10% ROE, higher than 1x PEG and P/BV, more than 80% D/E.
We identify 30 stocks: 11 from HK/China, 9 from Japan, 4 from Taiwan, 3 from India, and one each from Korea, Malaysia and Singapore. Financials, property, industrials dominate the list.


Asian Equities: The Overvalued, Low Growth, Over-Leveraged Stocks

Asia Real Estate News Tracker, Asia Real Estate Tracker

Asia Real Estate Tracker

Asia Real Estate News Tracker

Tracking developments across Asia's regional real estate markets

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) is purchasing 9 floors at Exchange Square in Hong Kong for $810 million, marking the top deal of the year.</li><li>The California Public Employees' Retirement System (CalPERS) fund has acquired an office tower near Shanghai Xintiandi for $316 million.</li><li>Mitsubishi Estate has started construction on a $1.7 billion office project in London, further solidifying its presence in the city's real estate market.</li></ul>

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) is purchasing 9 floors at Exchange Square in Hong Kong for $810 million, marking the top deal of the year.The California Public Employees' Retirement System (CalPERS) fund has acquired an office tower near Shanghai Xintiandi for $316 million.Mitsubishi Estate has started construction on a $1.7 billion office project in London, further solidifying its presence in the city's real estate market.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (25-Apr-2025): HKEX buys 9 floors at Exchange Square for $810M.

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The number of new mall developments in 2024 in Japan held steady but will collapse in 2025 due to higher costs, lower demand and a lack of labour.</li>
<li>At the same time, for existing malls, sales were robust through 2023 and 2024 and look set to continue at higher levels despite consumer restraint.</li>
<li>Both locals and tourists alike use malls for leisure, entertainment and shopping and, as the number of malls falls, and upgrades continue, efficiency is improving.</li>
</ul>


The number of new mall developments in 2024 in Japan held steady but will collapse in 2025 due to higher costs, lower demand and a lack of labour.
At the same time, for existing malls, sales were robust through 2023 and 2024 and look set to continue at higher levels despite consumer restraint.
Both locals and tourists alike use malls for leisure, entertainment and shopping and, as the number of malls falls, and upgrades continue, efficiency is improving.


Japan Shopping Mall Sector in 2025: Robust Sales, Fewer Doors

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-mall-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5262:1" rel="noopener">AEON Mall (8905 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)</a> announced a MoU for the potential privatisation of Aeon Mall through a share exchange offer.</li>
<li>The terms of the share exchange are expected to be announced in early April and be implemented in July. </li>
<li>Aeon’s 58.16% shareholding facilitates passing the Aeon Mall shareholder vote. My analysis suggests a potential share exchange (Aeon Mall/Aeon) ratio range of 0.60x-0.69x.</li>
</ul>



AEON Mall (8905 JP) and Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) announced a MoU for the potential privatisation of Aeon Mall through a share exchange offer.
The terms of the share exchange are expected to be announced in early April and be implemented in July. 
Aeon’s 58.16% shareholding facilitates passing the Aeon Mall shareholder vote. My analysis suggests a potential share exchange (Aeon Mall/Aeon) ratio range of 0.60x-0.69x.


Aeon Mall (8905 JP): Aeon (8267 JP)’s Potential Share Exchange Offer

Japan

Mitsubishi Estate Company Ltd. invests in real estate properties in Japan.  The Company leases, manages, and develops commercial buildings in central Tokyo. Mitsubishi Estate also develops and sells residential properties and parking lots and manages recreational facilities including golf courses and tennis clubs.

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Mitsubishi Estate (8802 JP)

Upgrading China to Overweight; Europe Breaking Out

Upgrading China to Overweight. Europe Breaking Out. Japan Remains Attractive. All signs point to the $ACWI uptrend continuing for the foreseeable...

Vermilion Research

Asian Equities: The Overvalued, Low Growth, Over-Leveraged Stocks

Quantamental screens reveal overvalued Asian stocks with low earnings growth, low return ratios, and high leverage. 30 stocks identified across...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Asia Real Estate Tracker (25-Apr-2025): HKEX buys 9 floors at Exchange Square for $810M.

HKEX buys 9 floors at Hongkong Land's Exchange Square, CalPERS fund purchases office tower near Shanghai Xintiandi, and Mitsubishi Estate starts...

Asia Real Estate Tracker

Japan Shopping Mall Sector in 2025: Robust Sales, Fewer Doors

New mall developments in Japan to collapse in 2025 due to higher costs, lower demand, and lack of labor, while existing malls see robust sales and...

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Upgrading China to Overweight; Europe Breaking Out

Upgrading China to Overweight. Europe Breaking Out. Japan Remains Attractive. All signs point to the $ACWI uptrend continuing for the foreseeable...

Vermilion Research

Asian Equities: The Overvalued, Low Growth, Over-Leveraged Stocks

​Quantamental screens reveal overvalued Asian stocks with low earnings growth, low return ratios, and high leverage. 30 stocks identified across...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Asia Real Estate Tracker (25-Apr-2025): HKEX buys 9 floors at Exchange Square for $810M.

HKEX buys 9 floors at Hongkong Land's Exchange Square, CalPERS fund purchases office tower near Shanghai Xintiandi, and Mitsubishi Estate starts...

Asia Real Estate Tracker

Japan Shopping Mall Sector in 2025: Robust Sales, Fewer Doors

​New mall developments in Japan to collapse in 2025 due to higher costs, lower demand, and lack of labor, while existing malls see robust sales and...

Michael Causton

Aeon Mall (8905 JP): Aeon (8267 JP)’s Potential Share Exchange Offer

The terms of the share exchange are expected to be announced in early April and be implemented in July. My analysis suggests a potential share...

Arun George

Quantamental screens reveal overvalued Asian stocks with low earnings growth, low return ratios, and high leverage. 30 stocks identified across...

New mall developments in Japan to collapse in 2025 due to higher costs, lower demand, and lack of labor, while existing malls see robust sales and...