Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, when we discussed that 5110-5120 on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) was a bounce spot and a level to trade [long] against.</li>
<li>We'll maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and SPX and ACWI-US are above 5500 and $115; we would be buyers on pullbacks to these levels.</li>
<li>We would also be buyers at 5700-5785 on SPX and $120-$121 on ACWI-US, which are shorter-term supports.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, when we discussed that 5110-5120 on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) was a bounce spot and a level to trade [long] against.
We'll maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and SPX and ACWI-US are above 5500 and $115; we would be buyers on pullbacks to these levels.
We would also be buyers at 5700-5785 on SPX and $120-$121 on ACWI-US, which are shorter-term supports.


MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) Testing All-Time Highs; Buy Pullbacks to $120-$121 or $115 Supports. Many Buys

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 9 May <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-logisnext-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11662:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP)</a> delayed earnings by 30 minutes. Shares popped. Then earnings were released, no deal, and shares crashed. Now they are rebounding.</li>
<li>But they remain volatile and subject to dips like the one this AM -5% at one point. Fears may be due to the idea that first smoke here was Dec-2024.</li>
<li>5 months later, no deal yet. Bids were due pre-earnings but with tariffs and writedowns, one wonders if bidders were waiting for results.</li>
</ul>


On 9 May Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP) delayed earnings by 30 minutes. Shares popped. Then earnings were released, no deal, and shares crashed. Now they are rebounding.
But they remain volatile and subject to dips like the one this AM -5% at one point. Fears may be due to the idea that first smoke here was Dec-2024.
5 months later, no deal yet. Bids were due pre-earnings but with tariffs and writedowns, one wonders if bidders were waiting for results.


[Japan M&A] Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105) - The Deal Still Looks Mighty Good

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ihi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4819:1" rel="noopener">IHI Corp (7013 JP)</a> has had a monster rally over the last year with the stock price tripling over the period. That could now result in a global index inclusion.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ihi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4819:1" rel="noopener">IHI Corp (7013 JP)</a> has outperformed its peers over the last year but still trades cheaper than the average and median of its peers on quite a few valuation metrics.</li>
<li>The appears to be a lot of positioning in the stock, but we see a similar pattern in its peers too. There could be some upside over the near term.</li>
</ul>



IHI Corp (7013 JP) has had a monster rally over the last year with the stock price tripling over the period. That could now result in a global index inclusion.

IHI Corp (7013 JP) has outperformed its peers over the last year but still trades cheaper than the average and median of its peers on quite a few valuation metrics.
The appears to be a lot of positioning in the stock, but we see a similar pattern in its peers too. There could be some upside over the near term.


IHI Corp (7013 JP): Global Index Inclusion in May

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Power/Analog semi names were buoyed by Microchip Tech comments for a downcycle inflection.</li>
<li>JP Heavies MHI and KHI both failed to impress on Friday, but MHI may see interest on news for possible jet export.</li>
<li>Trump looking to cut pharma costs by 30-80% will add to the uncertainty for JP pharma with high medicare and medicaid exposure.</li>
</ul>


Power/Analog semi names were buoyed by Microchip Tech comments for a downcycle inflection.
JP Heavies MHI and KHI both failed to impress on Friday, but MHI may see interest on news for possible jet export.
Trump looking to cut pharma costs by 30-80% will add to the uncertainty for JP pharma with high medicare and medicaid exposure.


Japan Morning Connection: US-China Talks End on Positive Note Adding to the Bullish Tone to Start

<ul>
<li>UK deal and anticipation of a positive outcome to China talks lifting positioning into risk assets.</li>
<li>Quantum computing names flying after D-wave numbers may lift Socionext.</li>
<li>Nintendo numbers obviously conservative, while Ibiden points to a bigger NVDA product mix + index upside.</li>
</ul>


UK deal and anticipation of a positive outcome to China talks lifting positioning into risk assets.
Quantum computing names flying after D-wave numbers may lift Socionext.
Nintendo numbers obviously conservative, while Ibiden points to a bigger NVDA product mix + index upside.


Japan Morning Connection: Market Risk on with Trump Telling Punters to Buy Ahead of W/E

Japan

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd. is a comprehensive heavy machinery maker. The Company manufactures machinery, ships, turbines and engines, prime movers, aircrafts, and machine parts for military and commercial use.  Mitsubishi Heavy Industries also researches and develops nuclear power plants.

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Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP)

MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) Testing All-Time Highs; Buy Pullbacks to $120-$121 or $115 Supports. Many Buys

MSCI $ACWI Testing All-Time Highs; Buy Pullbacks to $120-$121 or $115 Supports; Bullish Outlook Intact. Discussed Thursday pre-market that a...

Vermilion Research

[Japan M&A] Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105) - The Deal Still Looks Mighty Good

The Mitsubishi Logisnext potential takeover isn't seeing updates. But earnings and guidance with writedowns and new outlook were out late last...

Travis Lundy

IHI Corp (7013 JP): Global Index Inclusion in May

IHI is up 24% over the last few weeks and the upcoming index inclusion could give it another bump higher. If you are in, look to exit over the next...

Brian Freitas

Japan Morning Connection: US-China Talks End on Positive Note Adding to the Bullish Tone to Start

Tech names outperformed the market led by analog/MPU/power semiconductor manufacturer Microchip Technology. Uncertainty for JP Pharma as Trump...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Market Risk on with Trump Telling Punters to Buy Ahead of W/E

Positioning into risk assets with UK deal and China talks, Socionext may benefit from D-wave numbers; may be opportunity to buy into the dip for...

Andrew Jackson

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) Testing All-Time Highs; Buy Pullbacks to $120-$121 or $115 Supports. Many Buys

MSCI $ACWI Testing All-Time Highs; Buy Pullbacks to $120-$121 or $115 Supports; Bullish Outlook Intact. Discussed Thursday pre-market that a...

Vermilion Research

[Japan M&A] Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105) - The Deal Still Looks Mighty Good

The Mitsubishi Logisnext potential takeover isn't seeing updates. But earnings and guidance with writedowns and new outlook were out late last...

Travis Lundy

IHI Corp (7013 JP): Global Index Inclusion in May

IHI is up 24% over the last few weeks and the upcoming index inclusion could give it another bump higher. If you are in, look to exit over the next...

Brian Freitas

Japan Morning Connection: US-China Talks End on Positive Note Adding to the Bullish Tone to Start

Tech names outperformed the market led by analog/MPU/power semiconductor manufacturer Microchip Technology. Uncertainty for JP Pharma as Trump...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Market Risk on with Trump Telling Punters to Buy Ahead of W/E

Positioning into risk assets with ​UK deal and China talks, Socionext may benefit from D-wave numbers; may be opportunity to buy into the dip for...

Andrew Jackson

Positioning into risk assets with UK deal and China talks, Socionext may benefit from D-wave numbers; may be opportunity to buy into the dip for...