Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

Mizuho Financial Group / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Mizuho has well positioned for YCCC relief with its balance sheet management in 1Q24</li>
<li>Less low yielding cash assets, higher loans, securities, shift into NCDs, from deposits</li>
<li>Mizuho reports credit costs reversals and better credit metrics are clear in NPL detail</li>
</ul>


Mizuho has well positioned for YCCC relief with its balance sheet management in 1Q24
Less low yielding cash assets, higher loans, securities, shift into NCDs, from deposits
Mizuho reports credit costs reversals and better credit metrics are clear in NPL detail


Mizuho - Strong Balance Sheet Management & With Better Credit Metrics

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/integral-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40028:1" rel="noopener">Integral Corporation (5842 JP)</a> is looking to raise around US$175m in its Japan IPO.</li>
<li>Integral is a private equity management company advising funds that invest in both listed and unlisted companies in Japan, with a focus on mid-sized companies.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



Integral Corporation (5842 JP) is looking to raise around US$175m in its Japan IPO.
Integral is a private equity management company advising funds that invest in both listed and unlisted companies in Japan, with a focus on mid-sized companies.
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.


Integral Corporation Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Ambitious Indicative Pricing

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/integral-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40028:1" rel="noopener">Integral Corporation (5842 JP)</a> is looking to raise around US$175m in its Japan IPO.</li>
<li>Integral is a private equity management company advising funds that invest in both listed and unlisted companies in Japan, with a focus on mid-sized companies.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



Integral Corporation (5842 JP) is looking to raise around US$175m in its Japan IPO.
Integral is a private equity management company advising funds that invest in both listed and unlisted companies in Japan, with a focus on mid-sized companies.
In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.


Integral Corporation Pre-IPO - The Positives - Strong Track Record

<ul>
<li>Results show dramatically lower NIM, net interest income, but stock gains in spades</li>
<li>The only way to analyze 7182 is to have a view on its stock, bonds, investment gains</li>
<li>Unrealized gains more than doubled to JPY472bn: fire-power remains, but is it valuable?</li>
</ul>


Results show dramatically lower NIM, net interest income, but stock gains in spades
The only way to analyze 7182 is to have a view on its stock, bonds, investment gains
Unrealized gains more than doubled to JPY472bn: fire-power remains, but is it valuable?


Japan Post Bank - JPY234bn in Gains More than Offsets Cratering Net Interest Income

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (Sponsored Adr) / Equity Bottom-Up

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (Sponsored Adr)

<ul>
<li>SMFG achieved less of its FY24 profit forecast than peer megabanks; less upgrades</li>
<li>SMFG reported a far lower ROE than peer megabanks &amp; some worse financial metrics</li>
<li>SMFG's JPY bonds are only 0.88x of total equity; it is less leveraged than peer megabanks</li>
</ul>


SMFG achieved less of its FY24 profit forecast than peer megabanks; less upgrades
SMFG reported a far lower ROE than peer megabanks &amp; some worse financial metrics
SMFG's JPY bonds are only 0.88x of total equity; it is less leveraged than peer megabanks


SMFG - Least Achieved of FY24 Forecast, With Lowest ROE of Mega's & Less JPY Bond Leverage

Japan

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. (MUFG) is a holding company established through the merger of Mitsubishi Tokyo Financial Group and UFJ Holdings. As a financial group, the Company provides a variety of financial and investment services including commercial banking, trust banking, international finance, and assets management services.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)

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Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)

Mizuho - Strong Balance Sheet Management & With Better Credit Metrics

JGB yields are surging now up to 0.657% where Mizuho can benefit substantially, also with likely sharply higher company profit forecast. Weakening...

Daniel Tabbush

Integral Corporation Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Ambitious Indicative Pricing

Integral Corporation (5842 JP) is looking to raise around US$175m in its Japan IPO. In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the...

Sumeet Singh

Integral Corporation Pre-IPO - The Positives - Strong Track Record

Integral Corporation, a private equity management company, is looking to raise around US$175m in its Japan IPO. In this note we talk about the...

Sumeet Singh

Japan Post Bank - JPY234bn in Gains More than Offsets Cratering Net Interest Income

Japan Post Bank profit is entirely driven by gains on bonds, stocks, securities, and this can continue. It may though be considered low quality,...

Daniel Tabbush

SMFG - Least Achieved of FY24 Forecast, With Lowest ROE of Mega's & Less JPY Bond Leverage

SMFG has achieved less of its FY24 forecast than peer mega banks, with a lower ROE, higher credit costs, higher operating costs, and less JPY bond...

Daniel Tabbush

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