Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The Bank has reached its three-year target one year ahead of schedule</li>
<li>Focus has now turned to growth and new opportunities as unleashed from full  government supervision</li>
<li>Valuations do not yet discount an improvement in returns from here</li>
</ul>


The Bank has reached its three-year target one year ahead of schedule
Focus has now turned to growth and new opportunities as unleashed from full  government supervision
Valuations do not yet discount an improvement in returns from here


Japan Post Bank: Unlocking Value as Deposits Turn into Growth, Autonomy, and Digital Scale

Smartkarma AI, Smartkarma

αSK

Smartkarma AI

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

<ul>
 <li>
Unrivaled Deposit Franchise Forms a Stable Foundation: <a href="https://smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd">Japan Post Bank</a>'s core strength lies in its vast and stable deposit base, sourced through an unparalleled nationwide network of post offices. This provides a low-cost funding advantage and a significant competitive moat.</li>
 <li>
Monetary Policy Shift Presents a Key Inflection Point: The Bank of Japan's move away from negative interest rates is a structural tailwind. As the bank strategically rotates its massive securities portfolio, there is significant potential for net interest margin expansion and earnings growth.</li>
 <li>
Attractive Valuation with Clear Catalysts: The stock trades at a significant discount to its book value. Near-term catalysts, such as the expected US$1 billion inflow from the upcoming TOPIX free-float rebalancing, combined with long-term earnings potential, offer a compelling investment case.</li>
</ul>This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


  
Unrivaled Deposit Franchise Forms a Stable Foundation: Japan Post Bank's core strength lies in its vast and stable deposit base, sourced through an unparalleled nationwide network of post offices. This provides a low-cost funding advantage and a significant competitive moat.
  
Monetary Policy Shift Presents a Key Inflection Point: The Bank of Japan's move away from negative interest rates is a structural tailwind. As the bank strategically rotates its massive securities portfolio, there is significant potential for net interest margin expansion and earnings growth.
  
Attractive Valuation with Clear Catalysts: The stock trades at a significant discount to its book value. Near-term catalysts, such as the expected US$1 billion inflow from the upcoming TOPIX free-float rebalancing, combined with long-term earnings potential, offer a compelling investment case.
This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Primer: Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) - Oct 2025

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Once every quarter the TSE reassesses free float weights for a set of companies whose fiscal years ended 7-10 months prior. Calendar Q1 is the biggie so October is too.</li>
<li>This year, as companies have made dramatic changes in their shareholder registries through crossholder sales, activist acquisitions, and other, there are some big changes and big dollar changes.</li>
<li>We see nearly 600 FFW changes up and down, and then nearly 1,100 stocks which see a significant (average 0.5x ADV) funding trade. $35bn in total.</li>
</ul>


Once every quarter the TSE reassesses free float weights for a set of companies whose fiscal years ended 7-10 months prior. Calendar Q1 is the biggie so October is too.
This year, as companies have made dramatic changes in their shareholder registries through crossholder sales, activist acquisitions, and other, there are some big changes and big dollar changes.
We see nearly 600 FFW changes up and down, and then nearly 1,100 stocks which see a significant (average 0.5x ADV) funding trade. $35bn in total.


The Oct 2025 TOPIX FFW Rebal - $35bn of Flows To Trade

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In Friday's Monetary Policy Statement, the BOJ announced it would start selling down its holdings in ETFs and J-REITs at the pace of ¥620bn and ¥5.5bn/year, respectively. BIG NEWS!
</li>
<li>That is US$17mm of ETFs and US$150k of J-REITs per day. The BOJ suggests it is 0.05% of volume per day. That's close. SMALL EFFECT. 
</li>
<li>Given ¥15trln of buybacks and ¥5trln+ of dividend reinvestment + NISA account buys, plus ¥trlns of cross-holding selldowns/year, this is a total nothingburger, even if they up the pace.</li>
</ul>


In Friday's Monetary Policy Statement, the BOJ announced it would start selling down its holdings in ETFs and J-REITs at the pace of ¥620bn and ¥5.5bn/year, respectively. BIG NEWS!

That is US$17mm of ETFs and US$150k of J-REITs per day. The BOJ suggests it is 0.05% of volume per day. That's close. SMALL EFFECT. 

Given ¥15trln of buybacks and ¥5trln+ of dividend reinvestment + NISA account buys, plus ¥trlns of cross-holding selldowns/year, this is a total nothingburger, even if they up the pace.


The BOJ Announces the Start of ETF/JREIT Selldowns - Basically a Nothing-Burger

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

SBI Shinsei Bank / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a> is a Japanese financial institution. At the IPO price, it will raise JPY322 billion (US$2.1 billion). The shares will be listed on 17 December.</li>
<li>I previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sbi-shinsei-bank-8303-jp-ipo-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:211376" rel="noopener">SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: The Investment Case</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sbi-shinsei-bank-8303-jp-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:211514" rel="noopener"> </a>and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sbi-shinsei-bank-8303-jp-ipo-price-range-is-attractive" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:212880" rel="noopener">SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: Price Range Is Attractive</a>.</li>
<li>The peers have re-rated since the prospectus was released. My analysis suggests that SBI Shinsei is attractively valued at the IPO price.</li>
</ul>



SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) is a Japanese financial institution. At the IPO price, it will raise JPY322 billion (US$2.1 billion). The shares will be listed on 17 December.
I previously discussed the IPO in SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: The Investment Case and SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: Price Range Is Attractive.
The peers have re-rated since the prospectus was released. My analysis suggests that SBI Shinsei is attractively valued at the IPO price.


SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: Trading Debut

Japan

Japan Post Bank Co. Ltd. provides general banking services. The Company offers deposits, savings, loans, currency exchange transactions, investment trusts, national bonds, and other related banking services to individuals and businesses. Japan Post Bank also provides other financial services such as insurance agency and financing service.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)

Japan Post Bank: Unlocking Value as Deposits Turn into Growth, Autonomy, and Digital Scale

Bank surpasses three-year target early, now focused on growth and new opportunities post-government supervision. Valuations do not reflect...

Rikki Malik

Primer: Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) - Oct 2025

Unrivaled Deposit Franchise Forms a Stable Foundation: Japan Post Bank's core strength lies in its vast and stable deposit base, sourced...

αSK

The Oct 2025 TOPIX FFW Rebal - $35bn of Flows To Trade

The TOPIX FFW Trade for Oct2025 is larger than any recent year and may be larger than people expect at $35bn to trade. Many buy vs sell trades have...

Travis Lundy

The BOJ Announces the Start of ETF/JREIT Selldowns - Basically a Nothing-Burger

The BOJ announced Friday 19 Sep 2025 it would start to sell its portfolio of ¥80trln of ETFs. That seems like a lot, but the pace is very slow to...

Travis Lundy

SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: Trading Debut

The peers have re-rated since the prospectus was released. My analysis suggests that SBI Shinsei is attractively valued at the IPO price.

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Post Bank: Unlocking Value as Deposits Turn into Growth, Autonomy, and Digital Scale

​Bank surpasses three-year target early, now focused on growth and new opportunities post-government supervision. Valuations do not reflect...

Rikki Malik

Primer: Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) - Oct 2025

Unrivaled Deposit Franchise Forms a Stable Foundation: Japan Post Bank's core strength lies in its vast and stable deposit base, sourced...

αSK

The Oct 2025 TOPIX FFW Rebal - $35bn of Flows To Trade

The TOPIX FFW Trade for Oct2025 is larger than any recent year and may be larger than people expect at $35bn to trade. Many buy vs sell trades have...

Travis Lundy

The BOJ Announces the Start of ETF/JREIT Selldowns - Basically a Nothing-Burger

The BOJ announced Friday 19 Sep 2025 it would start to sell its portfolio of ¥80trln of ETFs. That seems like a lot, but the pace is very slow to...

Travis Lundy

SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: Trading Debut

The peers have re-rated since the prospectus was released. My analysis suggests that SBI Shinsei is attractively valued at the IPO price.

Arun George

Bank surpasses three-year target early, now focused on growth and new opportunities post-government supervision. Valuations do not reflect...