Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The Bank has reached its three-year target one year ahead of schedule</li>
<li>Focus has now turned to growth and new opportunities as unleashed from full  government supervision</li>
<li>Valuations do not yet discount an improvement in returns from here</li>
</ul>


The Bank has reached its three-year target one year ahead of schedule
Focus has now turned to growth and new opportunities as unleashed from full  government supervision
Valuations do not yet discount an improvement in returns from here


Japan Post Bank: Unlocking Value as Deposits Turn into Growth, Autonomy, and Digital Scale

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Once every quarter the TSE reassesses free float weights for a set of companies whose fiscal years ended 7-10 months prior. Calendar Q1 is the biggie so October is too.</li>
<li>This year, as companies have made dramatic changes in their shareholder registries through crossholder sales, activist acquisitions, and other, there are some big changes and big dollar changes.</li>
<li>We see nearly 600 FFW changes up and down, and then nearly 1,100 stocks which see a significant (average 0.5x ADV) funding trade. $35bn in total.</li>
</ul>


Once every quarter the TSE reassesses free float weights for a set of companies whose fiscal years ended 7-10 months prior. Calendar Q1 is the biggie so October is too.
This year, as companies have made dramatic changes in their shareholder registries through crossholder sales, activist acquisitions, and other, there are some big changes and big dollar changes.
We see nearly 600 FFW changes up and down, and then nearly 1,100 stocks which see a significant (average 0.5x ADV) funding trade. $35bn in total.


The Oct 2025 TOPIX FFW Rebal - $35bn of Flows To Trade

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In Friday's Monetary Policy Statement, the BOJ announced it would start selling down its holdings in ETFs and J-REITs at the pace of ¥620bn and ¥5.5bn/year, respectively. <strong>BIG NEWS!</strong>
</li>
<li>That is US$17mm of ETFs and US$150k of J-REITs per day. The BOJ suggests it is 0.05% of volume per day. That's close. <strong>SMALL EFFECT. </strong>
</li>
<li>Given ¥15trln of buybacks and ¥5trln+ of dividend reinvestment + NISA account buys, plus ¥trlns of cross-holding selldowns/year, this is a total nothingburger, even if they up the pace.</li>
</ul>


In Friday's Monetary Policy Statement, the BOJ announced it would start selling down its holdings in ETFs and J-REITs at the pace of ¥620bn and ¥5.5bn/year, respectively. BIG NEWS!

That is US$17mm of ETFs and US$150k of J-REITs per day. The BOJ suggests it is 0.05% of volume per day. That's close. SMALL EFFECT. 

Given ¥15trln of buybacks and ¥5trln+ of dividend reinvestment + NISA account buys, plus ¥trlns of cross-holding selldowns/year, this is a total nothingburger, even if they up the pace.


The BOJ Announces the Start of ETF/JREIT Selldowns - Basically a Nothing-Burger

<ul>
<li>The bank is starting to perform both absolutely and relative to both the Topix and the Megabanks</li>
<li>The core thesis is intact as  Net Interest Income improves from a changed asset mix </li>
<li>The move into digital currencies is groundbreaking for this institution</li>
</ul>


The bank is starting to perform both absolutely and relative to both the Topix and the Megabanks
The core thesis is intact as  Net Interest Income improves from a changed asset mix 
The move into digital currencies is groundbreaking for this institution


Japan Post Bank- Adding Some Sizzle with a Move into Digital Currencies!

<ul>
<li>Non-Controversial changes in asset allocation will provide a big boost to earnings.</li>
<li>Demand problems brewing in the JGB market may provide the catalyst</li>
<li>The path is clear to enter new businesses after parent lowers  stake below 50%</li>
</ul>


Non-Controversial changes in asset allocation will provide a big boost to earnings.
Demand problems brewing in the JGB market may provide the catalyst
The path is clear to enter new businesses after parent lowers  stake below 50%


Japan Post Bank: From Stagnation to Opportunity

Japan

Japan Post Bank Co. Ltd. provides general banking services. The Company offers deposits, savings, loans, currency exchange transactions, investment trusts, national bonds, and other related banking services to individuals and businesses. Japan Post Bank also provides other financial services such as insurance agency and financing service.

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Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)

Japan Post Bank: Unlocking Value as Deposits Turn into Growth, Autonomy, and Digital Scale

Bank surpasses three-year target early, now focused on growth and new opportunities post-government supervision. Valuations do not reflect...

Rikki Malik

The Oct 2025 TOPIX FFW Rebal - $35bn of Flows To Trade

The TOPIX FFW Trade for Oct2025 is larger than any recent year and may be larger than people expect at $35bn to trade. Many buy vs sell trades have...

Travis Lundy

The BOJ Announces the Start of ETF/JREIT Selldowns - Basically a Nothing-Burger

The BOJ announced Friday 19 Sep 2025 it would start to sell its portfolio of ¥80trln of ETFs. That seems like a lot, but the pace is very slow to...

Travis Lundy

Japan Post Bank- Adding Some Sizzle with a Move into Digital Currencies!

The bank is outperforming peers, with a move into longer duration JGBs raising domestic interest income while a groundbreaking move into digital...

Rikki Malik

Japan Post Bank: From Stagnation to Opportunity

Non-controversial changes in asset allocation can boost earnings, with a potential catalyst from demand problems in JGB market. Clear path to...

Rikki Malik

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Post Bank: Unlocking Value as Deposits Turn into Growth, Autonomy, and Digital Scale

​Bank surpasses three-year target early, now focused on growth and new opportunities post-government supervision. Valuations do not reflect...

Rikki Malik

The Oct 2025 TOPIX FFW Rebal - $35bn of Flows To Trade

The TOPIX FFW Trade for Oct2025 is larger than any recent year and may be larger than people expect at $35bn to trade. Many buy vs sell trades have...

Travis Lundy

The BOJ Announces the Start of ETF/JREIT Selldowns - Basically a Nothing-Burger

The BOJ announced Friday 19 Sep 2025 it would start to sell its portfolio of ¥80trln of ETFs. That seems like a lot, but the pace is very slow to...

Travis Lundy

Japan Post Bank- Adding Some Sizzle with a Move into Digital Currencies!

​The bank is outperforming peers, with a move into longer duration JGBs raising domestic interest income while a groundbreaking move into digital...

Rikki Malik

Japan Post Bank: From Stagnation to Opportunity

​Non-controversial changes in asset allocation can boost earnings, with a potential catalyst from demand problems in JGB market. Clear path to...

Rikki Malik

Bank surpasses three-year target early, now focused on growth and new opportunities post-government supervision. Valuations do not reflect...

The bank is outperforming peers, with a move into longer duration JGBs raising domestic interest income while a groundbreaking move into digital...

Non-controversial changes in asset allocation can boost earnings, with a potential catalyst from demand problems in JGB market. Clear path to...