Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a>/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a> ratio looks more attractive as JPB climbs with other banks as the possibility of Offering-induced retail overhang increases. </li>
<li>The ACCC has until 28 September 2023 to make its decision on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>. Expect ACCC to be supportive - they haven't built a strong "against" case.</li>
<li>There should be more for the Kenedix REIT complex on a fundamental basis, a future equity capital raise accretion basis, and because of significant net buying for index purposes.</li>
</ul>


The Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)/ Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) ratio looks more attractive as JPB climbs with other banks as the possibility of Offering-induced retail overhang increases. 
The ACCC has until 28 September 2023 to make its decision on Origin Energy (ORG AU). Expect ACCC to be supportive - they haven't built a strong "against" case.
There should be more for the Kenedix REIT complex on a fundamental basis, a future equity capital raise accretion basis, and because of significant net buying for index purposes.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post, Sun Hung Kai, LVS/Sands China, Kenedix REIT Complex, JFE

<ul>
<li>Concerning Australian tax-loss selling baskets, the sell across the four baskets made 4.2% vs ASX200 in May, then is up.</li>
<li>Be long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a>. Or long<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a> for a long JPB position. Don't be short JPB or short JPB vs JPH.</li>
<li>As a PRC aviation/defense play, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avichina-industry-technology-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16315:1" rel="noopener">AviChina Industry &amp; Technology H (2357 HK)</a>'s fundamentals are undemanding. </li>
</ul>


Concerning Australian tax-loss selling baskets, the sell across the four baskets made 4.2% vs ASX200 in May, then is up.
Be long Japan Post Bank (7182 JP). Or longJapan Post Holdings (6178 JP) for a long JPB position. Don't be short JPB or short JPB vs JPH.
As a PRC aviation/defense play, AviChina Industry &amp; Technology H (2357 HK)'s fundamentals are undemanding. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Aussie Tax-Loss Selling, Japan Post Bank/Holdings, AviChina, Hang Lung

Asian bank research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Asian bank research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Results show dramatically lower NIM, net interest income, but stock gains in spades</li>
<li>The only way to analyze 7182 is to have a view on its stock, bonds, investment gains</li>
<li>Unrealized gains more than doubled to JPY472bn: fire-power remains, but is it valuable?</li>
</ul>


Results show dramatically lower NIM, net interest income, but stock gains in spades
The only way to analyze 7182 is to have a view on its stock, bonds, investment gains
Unrealized gains more than doubled to JPY472bn: fire-power remains, but is it valuable?


Japan Post Bank - JPY234bn in Gains More than Offsets Cratering Net Interest Income

<ul>
<li>Japan Post Bank is no ordinary bank, without much loans, and mostly investments</li>
<li>It is well-known for its US CLO exposure, but also moving more into private equity</li>
<li>Many moving parts to the bank's earnings, where we see downside risk on profit</li>
</ul>


Japan Post Bank is no ordinary bank, without much loans, and mostly investments
It is well-known for its US CLO exposure, but also moving more into private equity
Many moving parts to the bank's earnings, where we see downside risk on profit


Japan Post Bank - Weak Yen, High Topix, US CLO's, Many Moving Parts, Profit Risk

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a> was effectively re-IPOed in March when <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a> offered more than a BILLION shares against the 400mm shares then in float. </li>
<li>It was a huge offering. A huge increase in float. Lots of immediate liquidity. A PERFECT opportunity for the TSE to do an ad hoc FFW change. But they didn't. </li>
<li>Then in June they lowered the FFW (on a technicality). That leaves a big upweight in October. In this insight we measure the opportunity.</li>
</ul>



Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) was effectively re-IPOed in March when Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) offered more than a BILLION shares against the 400mm shares then in float. 
It was a huge offering. A huge increase in float. Lots of immediate liquidity. A PERFECT opportunity for the TSE to do an ad hoc FFW change. But they didn't. 
Then in June they lowered the FFW (on a technicality). That leaves a big upweight in October. In this insight we measure the opportunity.


Japan Post Bank (7182) - The October TOPIX FFW Adjustment

Japan

Japan Post Bank Co. Ltd. provides general banking services. The Company offers deposits, savings, loans, currency exchange transactions, investment trusts, national bonds, and other related banking services to individuals and businesses. Japan Post Bank also provides other financial services such as insurance agency and financing service.

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Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post, Sun Hung Kai, LVS/Sands China, Kenedix REIT Complex, JFE

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Aussie Tax-Loss Selling, Japan Post Bank/Holdings, AviChina, Hang Lung

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Japan Post Bank - JPY234bn in Gains More than Offsets Cratering Net Interest Income

Japan Post Bank profit is entirely driven by gains on bonds, stocks, securities, and this can continue. It may though be considered low quality,...

Daniel Tabbush

Japan Post Bank - Weak Yen, High Topix, US CLO's, Many Moving Parts, Profit Risk

With Travis Lundy new insight on TOPIX changes that will mean more weighting likely for Japan Post Bank and much weaker JPY now, makes it...

Daniel Tabbush

Japan Post Bank (7182) - The October TOPIX FFW Adjustment

Japan Post Bank will have a JPY 200bn+ TOPIX upweight in October about 10 weeks from now. That will be about 20% of Real World Float. JPB is rich...

Travis Lundy

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)