HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>MIXUE's IPO debut was stellar. the IPO pricing of HK$202.5/share was indeed conservative. MIXUE is able to obtain more valuation premium space after IPO from a relatively low IPO pricing.</li>
<li>However, concerns on future performance growth remains. Investors need to pay attention to the performance verification. Market sentiment is becoming “overheated”, and the pressure for short-term stock price corrections increases.</li>
<li>We updated our forecast for 2025-2027. If based on P/E of 20-25x, market value is HK$109.4-136.8 billion, HK$122.5-153.2 billion, HK$134.8-168.5 billion based on 2025, 2026 and 2027 net profit, respectively.  </li>
</ul>


MIXUE's IPO debut was stellar. the IPO pricing of HK$202.5/share was indeed conservative. MIXUE is able to obtain more valuation premium space after IPO from a relatively low IPO pricing.
However, concerns on future performance growth remains. Investors need to pay attention to the performance verification. Market sentiment is becoming “overheated”, and the pressure for short-term stock price corrections increases.
We updated our forecast for 2025-2027. If based on P/E of 20-25x, market value is HK$109.4-136.8 billion, HK$122.5-153.2 billion, HK$134.8-168.5 billion based on 2025, 2026 and 2027 net profit, respectively.  


MIXUE Group (2097.HK) - Updates on Performance Forecast and Valuation Outlook

<ul>
<li>The 11th national VBP is expected to start in 2025H1. Companies such as Kelun, CSPC, Qilu Pharmaceuticals, Fosun Pharma, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-pharmaceutical-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22928:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Pharmaceutical</a>, etc. are expected to be affected the most.</li>
<li>It is estimated that the entire market of PD-1/L1 x VEGF BsAb is approximately US$20-30 billion. AK112 is expected to seize about 40%-50% of the market or US$8-15 billion.</li>
<li>MIXUE's IPO debut was stellar. Conservative investors can considering taking profits as risk of share price corrections has increased. Radical investors can choose to bet on valuation exceeding Nongfu Spring.</li>
</ul>


The 11th national VBP is expected to start in 2025H1. Companies such as Kelun, CSPC, Qilu Pharmaceuticals, Fosun Pharma, China Resources Pharmaceutical, etc. are expected to be affected the most.
It is estimated that the entire market of PD-1/L1 x VEGF BsAb is approximately US$20-30 billion. AK112 is expected to seize about 40%-50% of the market or US$8-15 billion.
MIXUE's IPO debut was stellar. Conservative investors can considering taking profits as risk of share price corrections has increased. Radical investors can choose to bet on valuation exceeding Nongfu Spring.


China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.9) - 11th VBP, PD-1/VEGF BsAb Outlook, MIXUE's Stunning IPO Debut

<ul>
<li>MIXUE’s valuation should be higher than peers such as Guming and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sichuan-baicha-baidao-industrial-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40029:1" rel="noopener">Baicha Baidao Industrial</a>. A comfortable valuation range is 18-20 P/E, higher than peers. So, the IPO pricing is attractive.</li>
<li>2024 full-year net profit is HK$4.8 billion.Net profit could reach HK$5.7 billion (up 19% YoY), HK$6.6 billion (up 16% YoY), HK$7.6 billion (up 15% YoY) in 2025, 2026, 2027, respectively. </li>
<li>Since Nongfu Spring’s revenue scale/net profit margin is higher than MIXUE, MIXUE’s valuation should be lower than Nongfu Spring. Investors need to be alert to the post-IPO performance growth pressure.</li>
</ul>


MIXUE’s valuation should be higher than peers such as Guming and Baicha Baidao Industrial. A comfortable valuation range is 18-20 P/E, higher than peers. So, the IPO pricing is attractive.
2024 full-year net profit is HK$4.8 billion.Net profit could reach HK$5.7 billion (up 19% YoY), HK$6.6 billion (up 16% YoY), HK$7.6 billion (up 15% YoY) in 2025, 2026, 2027, respectively. 
Since Nongfu Spring’s revenue scale/net profit margin is higher than MIXUE, MIXUE’s valuation should be lower than Nongfu Spring. Investors need to be alert to the post-IPO performance growth pressure.


Pre-IPO MIXUE Group (2097.HK) - The IPO Is Attractively Priced

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group (2097 HK)</a> raised around US$450m in its Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>MIXUE Group (MIXUE) is a freshly-made drinks company providing affordable products to consumers, including freshly-made fruit drinks, tea, ice cream and coffee, typically priced at around one USD per item.</li>
<li>We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Mixue Group (2097 HK) raised around US$450m in its Hong Kong IPO.
MIXUE Group (MIXUE) is a freshly-made drinks company providing affordable products to consumers, including freshly-made fruit drinks, tea, ice cream and coffee, typically priced at around one USD per item.
We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.


MIXUE IPO Trading - Strong Demand, Set to Break the Tea Chain Jinx

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group (MIX HK)</a> has priced its IPO at HK$202.5/share and will raise up to HK$3.97bn (US$511m) if the oversubscription option is exercised, valuing the company at HK$76.35bn (US$9.8bn).</li>
<li>Despite a US$10bn market cap, the stock will find it difficult to be added to global and local indices since 60% of the shares are unlisted.</li>
<li>The stock is likely to remain in the shadows for one global index and could be added to the other in December. HSCI inclusion could take place in September.</li>
</ul>



Mixue Group (MIX HK) has priced its IPO at HK$202.5/share and will raise up to HK$3.97bn (US$511m) if the oversubscription option is exercised, valuing the company at HK$76.35bn (US$9.8bn).
Despite a US$10bn market cap, the stock will find it difficult to be added to global and local indices since 60% of the shares are unlisted.
The stock is likely to remain in the shadows for one global index and could be added to the other in December. HSCI inclusion could take place in September.


MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: Small Float to Keep Stock Out of Most Indices

Hong Kong

Mixuebingcheng Co. Ltd. offers management services. The Company provides corporate management consulting, corporate marketing planning, corporate image planning, hotel management consulting, and other services. Mixuebingcheng also operates catering business management businesses.

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MIXUE Group (1860056D CH)

MIXUE Group (2097.HK) - Updates on Performance Forecast and Valuation Outlook

Stock price correction came shortly after MIXUE's valuation surpassed Nongfu Spring.Valuation by Mar.23 (31 P/E) was higher than industry average...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.9) - 11th VBP, PD-1/VEGF BsAb Outlook, MIXUE's Stunning IPO Debut

The 11th national VBP in 2025H1 will impact big pharma companies. AK112 would seize 40%-50% of the PD-1/VEGF BsAb market. MIXUE's IPO debut was...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO MIXUE Group (2097.HK) - The IPO Is Attractively Priced

MIXUE's IPO debut was stellar.By March 3, market value was over HK$100 billion, higher than HK$86.4-96 billion range as analyzed in insight. P/E...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

MIXUE IPO Trading - Strong Demand, Set to Break the Tea Chain Jinx

Mixue Group (2097 HK) raised around US$450m in its Hong Kong IPO, which was well covered. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: Small Float to Keep Stock Out of Most Indices

MIXUE is looking to raise up to US$511m in its IPO. Large allocation to cornerstone investors and more than half the market cap in unlisted shares...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

MIXUE Group (2097.HK) - Updates on Performance Forecast and Valuation Outlook

Stock price correction came shortly after MIXUE's valuation surpassed Nongfu Spring.Valuation by Mar.23 (31 P/E) was higher than industry average...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.9) - 11th VBP, PD-1/VEGF BsAb Outlook, MIXUE's Stunning IPO Debut

​The 11th national VBP in 2025H1 will impact big pharma companies. AK112 would seize 40%-50% of the PD-1/VEGF BsAb market. MIXUE's IPO debut was...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO MIXUE Group (2097.HK) - The IPO Is Attractively Priced

MIXUE's IPO debut was stellar.By March 3, market value was over HK$100 billion, higher than HK$86.4-96 billion range as analyzed in insight. P/E...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

MIXUE IPO Trading - Strong Demand, Set to Break the Tea Chain Jinx

Mixue Group (2097 HK) raised around US$450m in its Hong Kong IPO, which was well covered. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: Small Float to Keep Stock Out of Most Indices

MIXUE is looking to raise up to US$511m in its IPO. Large allocation to cornerstone investors and more than half the market cap in unlisted shares...

Brian Freitas

The 11th national VBP in 2025H1 will impact big pharma companies. AK112 would seize 40%-50% of the PD-1/VEGF BsAb market. MIXUE's IPO debut was...