Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Aug 14th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD27,503m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Kioxia, Advantest, IHI, Tokio Marine, Nintendo, Screen, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Taiyo Yuden, Fast Retailing, Rakuten.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Aug 14th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD27,503m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Kioxia, Advantest, IHI, Tokio Marine, Nintendo, Screen, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Taiyo Yuden, Fast Retailing, Rakuten.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Aug 14th): Kioxia, Advantest, IHI, Tokio Marine, Nintendo, Screen

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>BoJ’s tweaking of yield curve controls places Japanese financials on a more positive investment footing, and given the modest valuations, there is healthy potential for further re-rating</li>
<li>We assess the large-cap and select mid-cap Japanese commercial banks’ exposures to JGBs and foreign sovereign bonds and their loan books’ gearing to the prospect of higher rates</li>
<li>We see value, in particular, in Resona, Mizuho and SMFG with attractive valuations supported by modest LDRs, good loan sensitivity to higher rates and relatively modest exposure to JGBs</li>
</ul>


BoJ’s tweaking of yield curve controls places Japanese financials on a more positive investment footing, and given the modest valuations, there is healthy potential for further re-rating
We assess the large-cap and select mid-cap Japanese commercial banks’ exposures to JGBs and foreign sovereign bonds and their loan books’ gearing to the prospect of higher rates
We see value, in particular, in Resona, Mizuho and SMFG with attractive valuations supported by modest LDRs, good loan sensitivity to higher rates and relatively modest exposure to JGBs


Japanese Banks – Our Picks for a Steepening Yield Curve

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>As discussed in our previous Int'l Compass (June 29, 2023), we are bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) as long as ACWI-US is above $93, targeting $110</li>
<li>Bullish developments have continued: DXY breaking below $101-$101.50, RS bottoming for small-caps, MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. (ACWX-US) 1+ year breakout above $50, Italy's FTSE MIB breaking above multi-year resistance at 28,100.</li>
<li>This is only further evidence supporting our bullish outlook. We are getting the breakout above 4400-4415 on the EURO STOXX 50 that we've been expecting. Buys in Energy, Materials, Financials</li>
</ul>


As discussed in our previous Int'l Compass (June 29, 2023), we are bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) as long as ACWI-US is above $93, targeting $110
Bullish developments have continued: DXY breaking below $101-$101.50, RS bottoming for small-caps, MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. (ACWX-US) 1+ year breakout above $50, Italy's FTSE MIB breaking above multi-year resistance at 28,100.
This is only further evidence supporting our bullish outlook. We are getting the breakout above 4400-4415 on the EURO STOXX 50 that we've been expecting. Buys in Energy, Materials, Financials


Bullish Developments Continue; MSCI ACWI Ex-US 1-Yr Breakout; Buys in Energy, Materials, Financials

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. US Back to Equity Declines as Fed Minutes indicate  more hikes coming;  Yield Rise across the curve; SPX -0.2% with Cyclicals hit hardest; New Car Sales up Again</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.7% vs Cash; USDJPY 144.7;  RENGO confirms largest wage Hikes in 3 decades;  Rakuten Securites IPO=¥100bn? is it enough for parent?; Big Buyback from Leopalace(8848)</li>
<li>NUGGET.  Nintendo Switch Sales still has more to run ? it would seems so -as IP is driving sales to new records in its 7th YEAR !</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. US Back to Equity Declines as Fed Minutes indicate  more hikes coming;  Yield Rise across the curve; SPX -0.2% with Cyclicals hit hardest; New Car Sales up Again
JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.7% vs Cash; USDJPY 144.7;  RENGO confirms largest wage Hikes in 3 decades;  Rakuten Securites IPO=¥100bn? is it enough for parent?; Big Buyback from Leopalace(8848)
NUGGET.  Nintendo Switch Sales still has more to run ? it would seems so -as IP is driving sales to new records in its 7th YEAR !


Ohayo Japan| Fed to Hike, Yields Rise, Stocks Drop; NUGGET: NINTENDO SWITCH-More Gas in the Engine?

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<ul>
<li>MUFG has assets of USD2,909,711m compared with USD471m at Mandala Multifinance</li>
<li>MUFG's profit is USD8,880m compared with USD44m at Mandala Multifinance</li>
<li>There is nothing wrong with expansion outside Japan, but perspective is key</li>
</ul>


MUFG has assets of USD2,909,711m compared with USD471m at Mandala Multifinance
MUFG's profit is USD8,880m compared with USD44m at Mandala Multifinance
There is nothing wrong with expansion outside Japan, but perspective is key


MUFG & PT Mandala Multifinance - Too Small To Matter, LT Perspective ROA Is Key

Japan

Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. provides comprehensive financial services through its subsidiaries. The Group provides variety of financial services such as general banking, securities brokerage, trust banking, and assets management.

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Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP)

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Aug 14th): Kioxia, Advantest, IHI, Tokio Marine, Nintendo, Screen

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Kioxia (285A JP), Advantest (6857 JP), IHI (7013 JP), Tokio...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Japanese Banks – Our Picks for a Steepening Yield Curve

We assess Japanese commercial banks’ exposures to JGBs and foreign sovereign bonds and their loan books’ gearing to the prospect of higher rates,...

Victor Galliano

Bullish Developments Continue; MSCI ACWI Ex-US 1-Yr Breakout; Buys in Energy, Materials, Financials

We remain bullish on global equities as long as $ACWI remains above $93, targeting $110; Bullish developments continue: $DXY below $101.50, small...

Vermilion Research

Ohayo Japan| Fed to Hike, Yields Rise, Stocks Drop; NUGGET: NINTENDO SWITCH-More Gas in the Engine?

US back to Declines as Feb Minutes indicate Hikes ahead; NKY Futs -0.7% vs Cash; USDJPY 144.7; RENGO confirms largest wage Hike in 3 decades - but...

Mark Chadwick

MUFG & PT Mandala Multifinance - Too Small To Matter, LT Perspective ROA Is Key

MUFG's purchase of Mandala in Indonesia may sound enticing, but the reality is that this is too small to matter, while perspective shows no major...

Daniel Tabbush

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