Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The Japan stock market is at ~33 year highs with TOPIX now at July 1990 levels</li>
<li>Japan's banks can see greater gains on stocks as they divest sizable holdings</li>
<li>Vast differences how stocks holdings compare with profit, equity, assets</li>
</ul>


The Japan stock market is at ~33 year highs with TOPIX now at July 1990 levels
Japan's banks can see greater gains on stocks as they divest sizable holdings
Vast differences how stocks holdings compare with profit, equity, assets


Japan Banks - TOPIX at July 1990 Levels, Banks' Stock Holdings In Perspective

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Aug 7th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD27,619m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Kioxia, Taiyo Yuden, Tokyo Electron, SoftBank, Toyota Motor, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Fujikura, Furukawa Electric, Fujifilm, Nitto Boseki.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Aug 7th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD27,619m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Kioxia, Taiyo Yuden, Tokyo Electron, SoftBank, Toyota Motor, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Fujikura, Furukawa Electric, Fujifilm, Nitto Boseki.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Aug 7th): Kioxia, Taiyo Yuden, Tokyo Electron, SoftBank, Toyota Motor

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. Equities Sell-off on Pending Demise of Credit Suisse; Flight to Safety Trade resumes; SNB engineer Shotgun Wedding - deal closed with UBS $3.25 billion. The end of an era.</li>
<li>JAPAN. On Friday, NKY Futs -2.3% vs Cash as Contagion Fears around Credit Suisse prompted Flight to Safety; With CS Rescue, expect strong open; JP Shippers Container Profits looks shaky</li>
<li>NUGGET. As Mitsui OSK approaches ex-div, we think the share price will see headwinds given the expected earnings decline on ONE's earning collapse = (MUCH) lower dividends next year.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. Equities Sell-off on Pending Demise of Credit Suisse; Flight to Safety Trade resumes; SNB engineer Shotgun Wedding - deal closed with UBS $3.25 billion. The end of an era.
JAPAN. On Friday, NKY Futs -2.3% vs Cash as Contagion Fears around Credit Suisse prompted Flight to Safety; With CS Rescue, expect strong open; JP Shippers Container Profits looks shaky
NUGGET. As Mitsui OSK approaches ex-div, we think the share price will see headwinds given the expected earnings decline on ONE's earning collapse = (MUCH) lower dividends next year.


Good Morning Japan |UBScs - Wedding Vows Sealed; NUGGET: MOL-Diversification Can't Come Fast Enough

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 45 adds/39 deletes for the JPX Nikkei400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are many stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 8.1% and a round-trip trade of JPY 1,424bn (US$9bn).</li>
<li>The adds have been floundering versus the deletes over the last few months and there could be some outperformance heading into implementation of the changes.</li>
</ul>


There are 45 adds/39 deletes for the JPX Nikkei400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are many stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 8.1% and a round-trip trade of JPY 1,424bn (US$9bn).
The adds have been floundering versus the deletes over the last few months and there could be some outperformance heading into implementation of the changes.


JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: 45 Adds; 39 Deletes; US$9bn Trade

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS: Big SPX Reversal as Recession back on the table; USD weakens; UST bid as US Retail Sales misses;  Big job cuts ats MSFT  </li>
<li>JAPAN: NKY Futs -1.2% vs Cash; BOJ holds steady forcing speculative JGB unwinds - JGB yields go as low as 0.34%; Toyota production issues; Disco Nikkei preview - Weak </li>
<li>DAILY NUGGET: CARBON CREDITS - WORTHLESS ? This is according to the Guardian Newspaper. Seems that this is something the authorities need to address. </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS: Big SPX Reversal as Recession back on the table; USD weakens; UST bid as US Retail Sales misses;  Big job cuts ats MSFT  
JAPAN: NKY Futs -1.2% vs Cash; BOJ holds steady forcing speculative JGB unwinds - JGB yields go as low as 0.34%; Toyota production issues; Disco Nikkei preview - Weak 
DAILY NUGGET: CARBON CREDITS - WORTHLESS ? This is according to the Guardian Newspaper. Seems that this is something the authorities need to address. 


Good Morning Japan |Recession Reasserts; Retail Sales Miss; Fed Bullard Calls for 5%; MSFT Culls

Japan

Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. provides comprehensive financial services through its subsidiaries. The Group provides variety of financial services such as general banking, securities brokerage, trust banking, and assets management.

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Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP)

Japan Banks - TOPIX at July 1990 Levels, Banks' Stock Holdings In Perspective

Japan stock market keeps setting record highs, we should remember that banks have major stock holdings. Stock holdings can be very high relative to...

Daniel Tabbush

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Aug 7th): Kioxia, Taiyo Yuden, Tokyo Electron, SoftBank, Toyota Motor

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Kioxia (285A JP), Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP), Tokyo Electron (8035...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Good Morning Japan |UBScs - Wedding Vows Sealed; NUGGET: MOL-Diversification Can't Come Fast Enough

CS is no more as UBS steps in with a rescue. Japanese markets are expected to open strong today following the UBS rescue of Credit Suisse + global...

Mark Chadwick

JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: 45 Adds; 39 Deletes; US$9bn Trade

There are 45 adds/39 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index resulting in a one-way turnover of 8.1% and a round-trip trade of JPY 1,424bn (US$9bn)....

Brian Freitas

Good Morning Japan |Recession Reasserts; Retail Sales Miss; Fed Bullard Calls for 5%; MSFT Culls

JAPAN: NKY Futs -1.2% vs Cash; SPX reversal on weak retail print;BOJ holds steady forcing speculative JGB unwinds - JGB yields go as low as 0.34%;...

Mark Chadwick

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