Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

BIS defines market risk as 'the risk of losses resulting from changes in the prices of instruments such as bonds, shares and currencies'. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-overseas-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:113:1" rel="noopener">United Overseas Bank (UOB SP)</a> in Singapore has issued a warning about volatility in markets, that can cause credit costs to rise. Often we only consider that credit costs can rise from loans but there are certainly other impairment costs. We look at the largest holders of market risk assets globally.

BIS defines market risk as 'the risk of losses resulting from changes in the prices of instruments such as bonds, shares and currencies'. United Overseas Bank (UOB SP) in Singapore has issued a warning about volatility in markets, that can cause credit costs to rise. Often we only consider that credit costs can rise from loans but there are certainly other impairment costs. We look at the largest holders of market risk assets globally.

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

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<ul><li>
Oil Weakness To Spur Increased Risk to Leveraged Loan Markets:In light of oil prices declining 21% over the day as a result of the strained marriage between OPEC and Russia, we have decided to re-publish some key excerpts from our note "Risks In Leveraged Lending Skyrocketing  - Watch for the Big Offload" dated November 17, 2019. </li></ul>
<ul><li>
Longer Lasting Damage This Time Around:The sell-off in 2H18 credit markets was widespread due to global slowdown fears and nearly culminated with Jefferies (JEF) in a Lehman-style event. The wider fissures YTD in the leverage lending market look to be much more structural and longer lasting by definition. </li></ul>
</div>



Oil Weakness To Spur Increased Risk to Leveraged Loan Markets:In light of oil prices declining 21% over the day as a result of the strained marriage between OPEC and Russia, we have decided to re-publish some key excerpts from our note "Risks In Leveraged Lending Skyrocketing  - Watch for the Big Offload" dated November 17, 2019. 

Longer Lasting Damage This Time Around:The sell-off in 2H18 credit markets was widespread due to global slowdown fears and nearly culminated with Jefferies (JEF) in a Lehman-style event. The wider fissures YTD in the leverage lending market look to be much more structural and longer lasting by definition. 


Risks In Leveraged Lending Have Skyrocketed - Watch For The Massive Offload

The sell-off in 2H18 credit markets was widespread due to global slowdown fears and nearly culminated with Jefferies (JEF) in a Lehman-style event. The wider fissures YTD in the leverage lending market look to be much more structural and longer lasting by definition.

The sell-off in 2H18 credit markets was widespread due to global slowdown fears and nearly culminated with Jefferies (JEF) in a Lehman-style event. The wider fissures YTD in the leverage lending market look to be much more structural and longer lasting by definition. 

Risks In Leveraged Lending Skyrocketing - Watch For The Big Offload

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jun 5th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD32,394m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Kioxia, SoftBank, Disco, Ibiden, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Fast Retailing, Lasertec, Mitsui Mining &amp; Smelting, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, Toyota Motor.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jun 5th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD32,394m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Kioxia, SoftBank, Disco, Ibiden, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Fast Retailing, Lasertec, Mitsui Mining &amp; Smelting, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, Toyota Motor.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jun 5th): Kioxia, SoftBank, Disco, Ibiden, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) offers negative interest rates on monies deposited. Japan’s banks are largely wholesale, with lumpy corporate loans and in many cases, where they look after corporate interests more than shareholders. Some consider the largest banks in Japan like closed-end mutual funds - but with credit risk -due to their gigantic equity holdings. These all remain valid reasons to shun Japan’s banks in favor of others in the region.  Credit costs are another concern. With BOJ’s new announcement of continuing low rates there remains even less hope that loan volume will support profit and that NIM pressure will remain. A negative delta in credit costs is not easily absorbed by anaemic ROA.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) offers negative interest rates on monies deposited. Japan’s banks are largely wholesale, with lumpy corporate loans and in many cases, where they look after corporate interests more than shareholders. Some consider the largest banks in Japan like closed-end mutual funds - but with credit risk -due to their gigantic equity holdings. These all remain valid reasons to shun Japan’s banks in favor of others in the region.  Credit costs are another concern. With BOJ’s new announcement of continuing low rates there remains even less hope that loan volume will support profit and that NIM pressure will remain. A negative delta in credit costs is not easily absorbed by anaemic ROA. 

Japan

Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. provides comprehensive financial services through its subsidiaries. The Group provides variety of financial services such as general banking, securities brokerage, trust banking, and assets management.

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Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP)

Banks – Market Risk

BIS defines market risk as 'the risk of losses resulting from changes in the prices of instruments such as bonds, shares and currencies'. United...

Daniel Tabbush

Risks In Leveraged Lending Have Skyrocketed - Watch For The Massive Offload

Oil Weakness To Spur Increased Risk to Leveraged Loan Markets:In light of oil prices declining 21% over the day as a result of the strained...

Thomas J. Monaco

Risks In Leveraged Lending Skyrocketing - Watch For The Big Offload

The sell-off in 2H18 credit markets was widespread due to global slowdown fears and nearly culminated with Jefferies (JEF) in a Lehman-style event....

Thomas J. Monaco

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jun 5th): Kioxia, SoftBank, Disco, Ibiden, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Kioxia (285A JP), SoftBank (9984 JP), Disco (6146 JP), Ibiden...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Japan Banks – Unloved for Many Reasons

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) offers negative interest rates on monies deposited. Japan’s banks are largely wholesale, with lumpy corporate loans and in...

Daniel Tabbush

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