CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Good gross margin, share price is less volatile, and more attractive to analysts relative to its sector</li>
<li>M launched 8 new outlets in 1Q18 (2 MK, 5 Yayoi and 1 Hakata) and plans to open another 40 in 2018 which should support sales growth</li>
<li>Gross margin should remain solid as much of production taking place at central kitchen provides economies of scale; 88 bps wider YoY in 1Q18</li>
<li>Trades in line with sector at 17CE* 3.9% ROE/PB versus the sector at 3.6%, has a solid net-cash position and offers a nice 3.5% dividend yield</li>
<li>Risks: Increase in raw material costs, slower than planned expansion and higher competition in restaurant business</li>
</ul>* Consensus Estimates


Good gross margin, share price is less volatile, and more attractive to analysts relative to its sector
M launched 8 new outlets in 1Q18 (2 MK, 5 Yayoi and 1 Hakata) and plans to open another 40 in 2018 which should support sales growth
Gross margin should remain solid as much of production taking place at central kitchen provides economies of scale; 88 bps wider YoY in 1Q18
Trades in line with sector at 17CE* 3.9% ROE/PB versus the sector at 3.6%, has a solid net-cash position and offers a nice 3.5% dividend yield
Risks: Increase in raw material costs, slower than planned expansion and higher competition in restaurant business
* Consensus Estimates

M (M TB): Cash-Loaded Hot-Pot Chain Continues to Expand

Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Asean (Thailand) Focused Independent Research

M Corp Review

M Corp is led by Athaporn Arayasantiparb who served as Head of Research for UOB and ANZ in Thailand and was an award-winning telecoms analyst at UBS in 2010 (AsiaMoney Thailand category) and Regional Strategist for DMG in Singapore. Prior to that, he also served as Kasikornbank credit analyst and scholar. He has a total work experience of 17 years, of which 14 were in research and 4 in research management roles. He started his career as an engineer for PTT and currently manages family investments. He holds an MBA from Stern (NYU) and CFA Charter since 2006. Apart from IPO Radar, which focuses on future listings, MCorp Review also provides six on-going thematic series ranked by frequency in descending order, namely: 1) Silicon Stories (technology) 2) Sathorn Series (financial services) 3) Thai-Coons (billionaire origin stories) 4) Reality Check (data-driven, investigative) 5) Thai Media Spotlight; and 6) Thai Macro Watch (global market drivers).

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

When we discussed MINT and CENTEL extensively in the past, it was in the context that they were the country's largest hotel operators, but these two firms are also the largest umbrella of restaurants in Thailand. Yet, they represent just a small portion of Thailand's restaurant industry. In this review, we highlight over ten groups that play a major role. As highlighted in Part 1, the sector is so fragmented that no one can really be said to dominate it. In this episode, we discuss the five…

When we discussed MINT and CENTEL extensively in the past, it was in the context that they were the country's largest hotel operators, but these two firms are also the largest umbrella of restaurants in Thailand. Yet, they represent just a small portion of Thailand's restaurant industry. In this review, we highlight over ten groups that play a major role. As highlighted in Part 1, the sector is so fragmented that no one can really be said to dominate it. In this episode, we discuss the five…

The two largest restaurant groups in Thailand, MINT and CENTEL, are both hotel operators. Yet, there are two things MCorp Review highlights here. Firstly, there is little or no synergy between hotels and restaurants. In fact, a better match would have been retailing, since most chain restaurants are located in malls. Secondly, the word "dominant" should never be associated with MINT and CENTEL. Despite their obvious size, we suspect that they do not account for even half of the industry. This is…

The two largest restaurant groups in Thailand, MINT and CENTEL, are both hotel operators. Yet, there are two things MCorp Review highlights here. Firstly, there is little or no synergy between hotels and restaurants. In fact, a better match would have been retailing, since most chain restaurants are located in malls. Secondly, the word "dominant" should never be associated with MINT and CENTEL. Despite their obvious size, we suspect that they do not account for even half of the industry. This is…

Thai Restaurants (Part I): Industry Structure and Key Success Factors

Osaka Earthquake. We normally don't go into much detail on natural disasters or terrorism, because these things just happen so often they become routine. But it just so happens that we were planning to fly to Osaka for the holidays, when the tour company had to cancel because a major earthquake (6.1 on the Richter scale) leveled the place. Heck, some of the tours that had gone to Osaka before us were stranded or at least had their flights delayed. One of the stocks in our portfolio, AOT (second…

Osaka Earthquake. We normally don't go into much detail on natural disasters or terrorism, because these things just happen so often they become routine. But it just so happens that we were planning to fly to Osaka for the holidays, when the tour company had to cancel because a major earthquake (6.1 on the Richter scale) leveled the place. Heck, some of the tours that had gone to Osaka before us were stranded or at least had their flights delayed. One of the stocks in our portfolio, AOT (second…

Thai Macro Watch: Osaka, Trump, & Automation

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

M reported 1Q18 net profit of Bt632m (+14%YoY, +16%QoQ). The 1Q18 result was 22% of our full-year forecast and was in line with our forecast.<ul class="">
<li>Sales grew 6.4%YoY but dropped 2%QoQ due mainly to same store sales growth (SSSG).</li>
<li>Gross profit margin was widened to 68.5% from 67.6% in 1Q17 due to the lower costs of major raw materials.</li>
</ul>We rate M as a BUY with a 22% upside to our target price of Bt96.0*Please refer to our previous report: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/m-big-three-chain-restaurant-giant-ramps-up-brands-and-networks" target="_blank">M: Big-Three Chain Restaurant Giant Ramps up Brands and Networks</a>*We…

M reported 1Q18 net profit of Bt632m (+14%YoY, +16%QoQ). The 1Q18 result was 22% of our full-year forecast and was in line with our forecast.
Sales grew 6.4%YoY but dropped 2%QoQ due mainly to same store sales growth (SSSG).
Gross profit margin was widened to 68.5% from 67.6% in 1Q17 due to the lower costs of major raw materials.
We rate M as a BUY with a 22% upside to our target price of Bt96.0*Please refer to our previous report: M: Big-Three Chain Restaurant Giant Ramps up Brands and Networks*We…

M: Gross Profit Widen to 68.5% Causes Increase Bottom Line Growth

Thailand

MK Restaurants Group PCL operates restaurants. The Company supplies traditional Thai food.

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MK Restaurants Group (M TB)

M (M TB): Cash-Loaded Hot-Pot Chain Continues to Expand

Good gross margin, share price is less volatile, and more attractive to analysts relative to its sector M launched 8 new outlets in 1Q18 (2 MK, 5...

A. Stotz Investment Research

Thai Restaurants (Part 2): Major Players

When we discussed MINT and CENTEL extensively in the past, it was in the context that they were the country's largest hotel operators, but these...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Thai Restaurants (Part I): Industry Structure and Key Success Factors

The two largest restaurant groups in Thailand, MINT and CENTEL, are both hotel operators. Yet, there are two things MCorp Review highlights here....

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Thai Macro Watch: Osaka, Trump, & Automation

Osaka Earthquake. We normally don't go into much detail on natural disasters or terrorism, because these things just happen so often they become...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

M: Gross Profit Widen to 68.5% Causes Increase Bottom Line Growth

M reported 1Q18 net profit of Bt632m (+14%YoY, +16%QoQ). The 1Q18 result was 22% of our full-year forecast and was in line with our forecast. Sales...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

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