HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>It’s the first time in nearly thirty years for the State Council to directly issue <em>The Guidelines</em> giving specific instructions on attracting foreign investment. Therefore, it’s necessary to interpret the signals behind.</li>
<li>The core requirement is for foreign companies to bring their production capacity/core technology to China (e.g. Tesla, Moderna). The ultimate goal is to help China's industry upgrade, achieve technological breakthroughs.</li>
<li>However, the investment logic of "import substitution" naturally conflicts with attracting foreign investment and guarantee the “national treatment” of foreign-invested enterprises. So, investors may need to change thinking mode/strategies.</li>
</ul>


It’s the first time in nearly thirty years for the State Council to directly issue The Guidelines giving specific instructions on attracting foreign investment. Therefore, it’s necessary to interpret the signals behind.
The core requirement is for foreign companies to bring their production capacity/core technology to China (e.g. Tesla, Moderna). The ultimate goal is to help China's industry upgrade, achieve technological breakthroughs.
However, the investment logic of "import substitution" naturally conflicts with attracting foreign investment and guarantee the “national treatment” of foreign-invested enterprises. So, investors may need to change thinking mode/strategies.


China's Extremely Rare Policy to Attract Foreign Investment and the Signals Behind

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In Q1FY24, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shionogi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19535:1" rel="noopener">Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP)</a> recorded 52% YoY revenue growth to ¥109B, reflecting a one-time payment received for the transfer of co-development and co-commercialization license for ADHD drugs.  </li>
<li>Shionogi has reiterated FY24 guidance. The company expects FY24 revenue of ¥450B (up 6% YoY), operating profit of ¥150B (up 1% YoY), and net profit of ¥155B (down 16% YoY).</li>
<li>Despite competition, Xocova captured a 60% market share of the treatment group patients in Japan. Over a six-month period since emergency approval, more than 70K patients have used Xocova.</li>
</ul>


In Q1FY24, Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP) recorded 52% YoY revenue growth to ¥109B, reflecting a one-time payment received for the transfer of co-development and co-commercialization license for ADHD drugs.  
Shionogi has reiterated FY24 guidance. The company expects FY24 revenue of ¥450B (up 6% YoY), operating profit of ¥150B (up 1% YoY), and net profit of ¥155B (down 16% YoY).
Despite competition, Xocova captured a 60% market share of the treatment group patients in Japan. Over a six-month period since emergency approval, more than 70K patients have used Xocova.


Shionogi & Co (4507 JP): Non-Recurring Income Lifts Q1 Revenue; FY24 Guidance Reiterated

<ul>
<li>Recent share-price declines in healthcare is mainly related to anti-corruption campaigns. Here're some updates.We recommend investors not to rush to buy the dip, but wait for the bottom.</li>
<li>We recommend A-share healthcare companies to buy back shares/increase dividends, in which case, despite slowing growth, A-shares are still the RMB-asset with the greatest potential for increases in expected returns.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cansino-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27739:1" rel="noopener">CanSino Biologics (6185 HK)</a> has entered a Framework Agreement with AstraZeneca, but investors should not be overly optimistic about the short-term or even medium-term performance contribution brought by this cooperation.</li>
</ul>


Recent share-price declines in healthcare is mainly related to anti-corruption campaigns. Here're some updates.We recommend investors not to rush to buy the dip, but wait for the bottom.
We recommend A-share healthcare companies to buy back shares/increase dividends, in which case, despite slowing growth, A-shares are still the RMB-asset with the greatest potential for increases in expected returns.

CanSino Biologics (6185 HK) has entered a Framework Agreement with AstraZeneca, but investors should not be overly optimistic about the short-term or even medium-term performance contribution brought by this cooperation.


China Healthcare Weekly (Aug11)-Anti-Corruption Update, Increase A-Share Shareholder Return, CanSino

<ul>
<li>As the core candidate in Everest Medicines’s current pipeline, the peak sales of Nefecon could be significantly lower-than-expected, mainly due to low diagnostic rate, limited applicable patient population, high price, competition from latecomers.</li>
<li>For the rest late-stage candidates, such as Etrasimod, Eravacycline, Taniborbactam, their peak sales would all be lower than that of Nefecon. So, they are unable to bring enough imagination space.</li>
<li>Based on license-in mode, cost of Everest Medicines is higher than independent-R&amp;D companies. Whether products would be returned to licensors again because of weak sales prospects is also uncertain factor.</li>
</ul>


As the core candidate in Everest Medicines’s current pipeline, the peak sales of Nefecon could be significantly lower-than-expected, mainly due to low diagnostic rate, limited applicable patient population, high price, competition from latecomers.
For the rest late-stage candidates, such as Etrasimod, Eravacycline, Taniborbactam, their peak sales would all be lower than that of Nefecon. So, they are unable to bring enough imagination space.
Based on license-in mode, cost of Everest Medicines is higher than independent-R&amp;D companies. Whether products would be returned to licensors again because of weak sales prospects is also uncertain factor.


Everest Medicines (1952.HK) - To Take off Again or to Fall Instead?

<ul>
<li>Moderna's move into China helps ease its current performance difficulties. But China has its own regulations/policies on vaccines. Whether Moderna can successfully adapt/stand out in China remains to be seen.</li>
<li>The entire vaccine industry in China is expected to undergo significant changes. We listed the companies in this industrial chain that would benefit from the successful signing with Moderna.</li>
<li>An important signal behind this deal is that while significant differences remain at the top, mutually beneficial business cooperation between China and US will continue, providing investors with additional options/confidence.</li>
</ul>


Moderna's move into China helps ease its current performance difficulties. But China has its own regulations/policies on vaccines. Whether Moderna can successfully adapt/stand out in China remains to be seen.
The entire vaccine industry in China is expected to undergo significant changes. We listed the companies in this industrial chain that would benefit from the successful signing with Moderna.
An important signal behind this deal is that while significant differences remain at the top, mutually beneficial business cooperation between China and US will continue, providing investors with additional options/confidence.


Moderna Inc (MRNA US) - What Would Happen After Moderna Enters China?

United States

Moderna, Inc. operates as a biotechnology company. The Company focuses on the discovery and development of messenger RNA therapeutics and vaccines. Moderna develops mRNA medicines for infectious, immuno-oncology, and cardiovascular diseases.

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Moderna (MRNA US)

China's Extremely Rare Policy to Attract Foreign Investment and the Signals Behind

Attracting foreign investment is commonplace and investors may not realize the importance,but new policy released by the State Council will bring...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Shionogi & Co (4507 JP): Non-Recurring Income Lifts Q1 Revenue; FY24 Guidance Reiterated

In Q1, revenue surged 52% YoY to ¥109B, reflecting a one-time payment received for the transfer of the license for ADHD drugs. Shionogi expects...

Tina Banerjee

Everest Medicines (1952.HK) - To Take off Again or to Fall Instead?

Great personnel changes had taken place in Everest Medicines. However, peak sales of core products could be significantly lower than expected. So,...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Moderna Inc (MRNA US) - What Would Happen After Moderna Enters China?

Moderna's entry into China is beneficial for both sides, which will have profound impact on China's biopharmaceutical industry.Such cooperation...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China's Extremely Rare Policy to Attract Foreign Investment and the Signals Behind

Attracting foreign investment is commonplace and investors may not realize the importance,but new policy released by the State Council will bring...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Shionogi & Co (4507 JP): Non-Recurring Income Lifts Q1 Revenue; FY24 Guidance Reiterated

In Q1, revenue surged 52% YoY to ¥109B, reflecting a one-time payment received for the transfer of the license for ADHD drugs. Shionogi expects...

Tina Banerjee

China Healthcare Weekly (Aug11)-Anti-Corruption Update, Increase A-Share Shareholder Return, CanSino

We updated the impact of anti-corruption in different sectors.Healthcare company need to increase share buyback/dividend to improve shareholder'...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Everest Medicines (1952.HK) - To Take off Again or to Fall Instead?

Great personnel changes had taken place in Everest Medicines. However, peak sales of core products could be significantly lower than expected. So,...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Moderna Inc (MRNA US) - What Would Happen After Moderna Enters China?

Moderna's entry into China is beneficial for both sides, which will have profound impact on China's biopharmaceutical industry.Such cooperation...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang