Fundamental Short Selling Research

Eric Fernandez, CFA

TwoRiversAnalytics

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We normally write these “Workbench” reports in between our larger initiation pieces.  They are intended to offer a window into our short investment process and to highlight potentially interesting names.</li>
<li>This Workbench focuses exclusively on earnings quality shorts.  We continue to work on these names. Today we highlight:</li>
<li>Moderna (MRNA),  Knowles (KN)    Juniper Networks (JNPR)  Upstart Holdings (UPST)  Beauty Health Co (SKIN), Sonos (SONO). Kraft Heinz (KHC), AZEK Co. (AZEK), Energizer Holdings (ENR),  Fox Factory Holding  (FOXF)</li>
</ul>


We normally write these “Workbench” reports in between our larger initiation pieces.  They are intended to offer a window into our short investment process and to highlight potentially interesting names.
This Workbench focuses exclusively on earnings quality shorts.  We continue to work on these names. Today we highlight:
Moderna (MRNA),  Knowles (KN)    Juniper Networks (JNPR)  Upstart Holdings (UPST)  Beauty Health Co (SKIN), Sonos (SONO). Kraft Heinz (KHC), AZEK Co. (AZEK), Energizer Holdings (ENR),  Fox Factory Holding  (FOXF)


Short Ideas on Our Workbench:  Earnings Quality

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

Covid-19 /: Chinese mainlanders rush to Macao for mRNA vaccinationsCrypto /: Hong Kong readies crypto futures ETFs for retail investorsChina-India /: China calls India border situation ‘generally stable’

Covid-19 /: Chinese mainlanders rush to Macao for mRNA vaccinationsCrypto /: Hong Kong readies crypto futures ETFs for retail investorsChina-India /: China calls India border situation ‘generally stable’

CX Daily: Chinese Mainlanders Rush to Macao for MRNA Vaccinations

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>On November 22, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shionogi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19535:1" rel="noopener">Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP)</a> received emergency regulatory approval for Xocova  in Japan for COVID-19. It is Japan’s first homegrown oral antiviral for SARS-CoV-2 infection.</li>
<li>On November 24, Shionogi has filed for manufacturing and sales approval of S-268019, a recombinant protein-based preventive vaccine, for use in priming and booster (third) doses, against COVID-19.</li>
<li>Although Shionogi continues to expect ¥110 billion revenue from COVID-19-related products in FY23, the company has raised overall revenue guidance to ¥410 billion from ¥400 billion.</li>
</ul>


On November 22, Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP) received emergency regulatory approval for Xocova  in Japan for COVID-19. It is Japan’s first homegrown oral antiviral for SARS-CoV-2 infection.
On November 24, Shionogi has filed for manufacturing and sales approval of S-268019, a recombinant protein-based preventive vaccine, for use in priming and booster (third) doses, against COVID-19.
Although Shionogi continues to expect ¥110 billion revenue from COVID-19-related products in FY23, the company has raised overall revenue guidance to ¥410 billion from ¥400 billion.


Shionogi & Co (4507 JP): Oral COVID-19 Drug Got Approval; Files Approval for COVID-19 Vaccine

<ul>
<li>This model seeks short-sale candidates among companies that use aggressive accounting and/or exhibit deteriorating quality of earnings.  </li>
<li>They are typically highly idiosyncratic shorts and require thoughtful analyses of upcoming catalysts.  When the company’s issues become well-known, there is often multiple compression as well as a rerating.</li>
<li>These shorts can have high or low betas, valuations based on artificial earnings and exhibit good short responses to subsequently disappointing earnings. This week: Moderna, Sonos, Knowles, Juniper Tech</li>
</ul>


This model seeks short-sale candidates among companies that use aggressive accounting and/or exhibit deteriorating quality of earnings.  
They are typically highly idiosyncratic shorts and require thoughtful analyses of upcoming catalysts.  When the company’s issues become well-known, there is often multiple compression as well as a rerating.
These shorts can have high or low betas, valuations based on artificial earnings and exhibit good short responses to subsequently disappointing earnings. This week: Moderna, Sonos, Knowles, Juniper Tech


Reminder: Earnings Quality Short Candidates: Moderna, Sonos, Knowles, Juniper Tech

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/moderna-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28744:1" rel="noopener">Moderna Inc (MRNA US)</a> reported Q3 revenue of $3.36 billion, below expectation, representing y/y decline of 35% and q/q decrease of 31%, due to lower sales volume of COVID-19 vaccine.</li>
<li>Management now expects 2022 vaccine revenue of $18–19 billion, down earlier expectation of $21 billion, following delay of certain deliveries into 2023 due to short-term supply constraints.  </li>
<li>With the continued higher medical burden of COVID relative to flu, Moderna expects the endemic COVID vaccine market could be as large or larger than flu market volumes over time.</li>
</ul>



Moderna Inc (MRNA US) reported Q3 revenue of $3.36 billion, below expectation, representing y/y decline of 35% and q/q decrease of 31%, due to lower sales volume of COVID-19 vaccine.
Management now expects 2022 vaccine revenue of $18–19 billion, down earlier expectation of $21 billion, following delay of certain deliveries into 2023 due to short-term supply constraints.  
With the continued higher medical burden of COVID relative to flu, Moderna expects the endemic COVID vaccine market could be as large or larger than flu market volumes over time.


Moderna (MRNA US): Q3 Result Misses Expectations; Guidance Slashed As COVID Vax Shipment Deferred

United States

Moderna, Inc. operates as a biotechnology company. The Company focuses on the discovery and development of messenger RNA therapeutics and vaccines. Moderna develops mRNA medicines for infectious, immuno-oncology, and cardiovascular diseases.

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Moderna (MRNA US)

Short Ideas on Our Workbench: Earnings Quality

Our "Workbench" focuses exclusively on potential earnings quality shorts. We continue to work on these names. Today we highlight ten names of...

Eric Fernandez, CFA

CX Daily: Chinese Mainlanders Rush to Macao for MRNA Vaccinations

Chinese mainlanders rush to Macao for mRNA vaccinations. Hong Kong readies crypto futures ETFs for retail investors. China calls India border...

Caixin Global

Shionogi & Co (4507 JP): Oral COVID-19 Drug Got Approval; Files Approval for COVID-19 Vaccine

Shionogi got approval for oral COVID drug and is seeking approval for COVID-19 vaccine in Japan. The company expects ¥110 billion revenue (~27% of...

Tina Banerjee

Reminder: Earnings Quality Short Candidates: Moderna, Sonos, Knowles, Juniper Tech

Earnings Quality shorts lead to idiosyncratic alpha. Today, we show our model rankings and highlight Moderna, Sonos, Knowles, Juniper Tech

Eric Fernandez, CFA

Moderna (MRNA US): Q3 Result Misses Expectations; Guidance Slashed As COVID Vax Shipment Deferred

Moderna’s Q3 result missed expectations. The company has cut 2022 vaccine revenue guidance. Multiple data readouts for respiratory and cancer...

Tina Banerjee

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