Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

Modernland Realty's Q1/19 results were in line with our expectations. The surge in revenue and profits were supported by the strong marketing sales in FY 2018. However, the company is still burning cash at a fast rate. The financial risk profile is elevated, especially in terms of cash-flow-based metrics, despite some improvement in Debt/EBITDA and coverage ratios. Liquidity is weak, owing to the fast cash burn rate. For the rest of FY 2019, we continue to foresee strong y-o-y growth in revenue and profits, underpinned by the robust marketing sales in FY 2018 and Q1/19. As the sales included one-off transactions, however, it is unclear how sustainable these may be. We believe the company will still require additional external funding to support its operations. We expect the financial risk profile to improve, with Debt/EBITDA to decline to around 8-8.5x (still an elevated level) by FYE 2019. We continue to expect downward rating pressure, as Modernland has breached the agencies’ negative triggers.

   Modernland Realty's Q1/19 results were in line with our expectations. The surge in revenue and profits were supported by the strong marketing sales in FY 2018. However, the company is still burning cash at a fast rate. The financial risk profile is elevated, especially in terms of cash-flow-based metrics, despite some improvement in Debt/EBITDA and coverage ratios. Liquidity is weak, owing to the fast cash burn rate.    For the rest of FY 2019, we continue to foresee strong y-o-y growth in revenue and profits, underpinned by the robust marketing sales in FY 2018 and Q1/19. As the sales included one-off transactions, however, it is unclear how sustainable these may be. We believe the company will still require additional external funding to support its operations. We expect the financial risk profile to improve, with Debt/EBITDA to decline to around 8-8.5x (still an elevated level) by FYE 2019.    We continue to expect downward rating pressure, as Modernland has breached the agencies’ negative triggers. 

Modernland Realty - Earnings Flash - Q1 FY 2019 Results - Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar. 

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia - 24 Apr 2019

The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for April includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. We also provide relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index.

   The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for April includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. We also provide relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index. 

	Asia HY Trade Recommendations - April 2019 - Lucror Analytics

Modernland Realty reported very weak FY 2018 results. In fact, the company's performance was the worst among all the real estate peers under our coverage so far. Revenue and profit suffered significant drops, while the company has been burning cash at a fast rate. The financial risk profile has become very elevated. Liquidity is weak due to the fast cash burn rate. Compared to real estate peers, Modernland’s recurring revenue is limited (5%), offering less support during industry downturns. We foresee negative rating action, as the company has breached the rating agencies’ negative triggers. We revise our LARA to "Very High Risk" from "High Risk" given the stressed financial risk profile, fast cash burn rate and upcoming maturity wall. We move to “Sell” from "Hold" on the MDLNIJ Notes.

   Modernland Realty reported very weak FY 2018 results. In fact, the company's performance was the worst among all the real estate peers under our coverage so far. Revenue and profit suffered significant drops, while the company has been burning cash at a fast rate. The financial risk profile has become very elevated. Liquidity is weak due to the fast cash burn rate.    Compared to real estate peers, Modernland’s recurring revenue is limited (5%), offering less support during industry downturns. We foresee negative rating action, as the company has breached the rating agencies’ negative triggers.    We revise our LARA to "Very High Risk" from "High Risk" given the stressed financial risk profile, fast cash burn rate and upcoming maturity wall.    We move to “Sell” from "Hold" on the MDLNIJ Notes. 

Modernland Realty - Earnings Flash - FY 2018 Results - Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia - 02 Apr 2019

Indonesia

PT Modernland Realty Tbk develops and sells real estates as well as operates a golf course and a country club. The Company's real estate projects include Taman Modern, Kota Modern, Bukit Modern, and Padang Golf Modern.

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Modernland Realty (MDLN IJ)

Modernland Realty - Earnings Flash - Q1 FY 2019 Results - Lucror Analytics

Modernland Realty's Q1/19 results were in line with our expectations. The surge in revenue and profits were supported by the strong marketing...

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia - 24 Apr 2019

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Trade Recommendations - April 2019 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for April includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. We also...

Lucror Analytics

Modernland Realty - Earnings Flash - FY 2018 Results - Lucror Analytics

Modernland Realty reported very weak FY 2018 results. In fact, the company's performance was the worst among all the real estate peers under our...

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia - 02 Apr 2019

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

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