MD, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Gu Jun, CFA

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>● We see YY is going to face more user and performer drainage issues in 2018 because of its aging community and the increasingly competitive landscape.<br>● We estimate YY’s 1Q18 is in-line, while 2Q guidance might be weak.<br>● We cut prediction for 18/19 Non-GAAP EPS to US$7.4/8.5, which are 6.2%/13.9% below the consensus. Maintain HOLD and cut TP to US$95.</p>

● We see YY is going to face more user and performer drainage issues in 2018 because of its aging community and the increasingly competitive landscape. ● We estimate YY’s 1Q18 is in-line, while 2Q guidance might be weak. ● We cut prediction for 18/19 Non-GAAP EPS to US$7.4/8.5, which are 6.2%/13.9% below the consensus. Maintain HOLD and cut TP to US$95.

YY Inc. Facing User and Performer Drainage, Cut TP to US$95

Analyst, qcAlpha Earnings Coverage, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Analyst, qcAlpha Earnings Coverage

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<div class="content-highlight"><h2><strong>What You Need to Know</strong></h2></div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Revenue rose 57.0% to US$386m, while adjusted diluted EPS grew 20.5% to US$0.53. </strong>Revenue was 1% higher than consensus, while EPS beat estimates by 15%.</li>
<li>
<strong>Live Video Service Revenue grew 68.3% to US$328m. </strong>Live Paying Users increased to 4.3m, while ARPPU rose to US$76.3.</li>
<li>
<strong>Monthly Active Users grew 22% YoY to 99.1m. </strong>Net additions accelerated in the quarter from improved user retention and engagement.</li>
<li>
<strong>Margins were better than expected. </strong>Adjusted operating margin came in at 31.0%…</li>
</ul>

What You Need to Know

Revenue rose 57.0% to US$386m, while adjusted diluted EPS grew 20.5% to US$0.53. Revenue was 1% higher than consensus, while EPS beat estimates by 15%.

Live Video Service Revenue grew 68.3% to US$328m. Live Paying Users increased to 4.3m, while ARPPU rose to US$76.3.

Monthly Active Users grew 22% YoY to 99.1m. Net additions accelerated in the quarter from improved user retention and engagement.

Margins were better than expected. Adjusted operating margin came in at 31.0%…


Momo 4Q17 Earnings: Upside Guidance Surprise as Results Beat; Stock Soars 9%

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Best World International / Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4600" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4600:1">Best World International Limited (BEST SP)</a> just reported its full FY 2017 with 10% increase in revenue, 4% gross margin contraction due to higher cost of sales, 31.6% increase in operating profit due to lower commissions paid to freelancers and other related sales expenses and a net margin expansion of 7% that results in <strong>60%</strong> increase in net profit. Its share price has rallied <strong>23%</strong> for the past 10 days. <strong>Is that all?</strong></p><h2>Dissecting </h2><p>Despite having an origin in Singapore, Best World has always wanted to…</p>

Best World International Limited (BEST SP) just reported its full FY 2017 with 10% increase in revenue, 4% gross margin contraction due to higher cost of sales, 31.6% increase in operating profit due to lower commissions paid to freelancers and other related sales expenses and a net margin expansion of 7% that results in 60% increase in net profit. Its share price has rallied 23% for the past 10 days. Is that all?Dissecting Despite having an origin in Singapore, Best World has always wanted to…

<div class="content-highlight"><h2><strong>What’s Happened Since Last Quarter?</strong></h2></div><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/043/735/original/MOMO%20Stock.png?1517725873" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="43735"></figure><p>Since the Company’s last earnings release in November, Momo’s stock has recovered significantly, and is now trading around the US$30 range once more. Notably on January 29, JP Morgan upgraded the Company from ‘neutral’ to ‘overweight’, which has helped support the stock’s price.</p><p>With the Company’s upcoming earnings expected on March 6, we take a closer look at Momo’s Live Video Service business and what this means for investors. </p><div class="content-highlight">
<h2><strong>Live Video Service: Investors</strong></h2>…</div>

What’s Happened Since Last Quarter?Since the Company’s last earnings release in November, Momo’s stock has recovered significantly, and is now trading around the US$30 range once more. Notably on January 29, JP Morgan upgraded the Company from ‘neutral’ to ‘overweight’, which has helped support the stock’s price.With the Company’s upcoming earnings expected on March 6, we take a closer look at Momo’s Live Video Service business and what this means for investors. 
Live Video Service: Investors…

Momo 4Q17 Earnings Preview: Upcoming Earnings Could Make This Stock Dirt Cheap

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>In today’s report we highlight the follow themes:</p><ul><li>As a whole, Europe continues to lag, but we like the price patterns—mostly multi-year bases. Recent weakness presents a buying opportunity, especially in leading countries, like Germany, and leading Sectors and Groups, such as software stocks. </li><li>Japan recently broke out above a key resistance level, making the current pullback all the more attractive. Add exposure.</li><li>EM remains unchallenged this year from a performance standpoint. While a pullback/pause wouldn’t surprise us, we expect EM to continue to lead, especially in light of the bottom pattern visible in the EM/ACWI ratio.</li><li>Today’s report includes actionable ideas across the developed and EM universe, and across multiple sectors.</li></ul>

In today’s report we highlight the follow themes:As a whole, Europe continues to lag, but we like the price patterns—mostly multi-year bases. Recent weakness presents a buying opportunity, especially in leading countries, like Germany, and leading Sectors and Groups, such as software stocks. Japan recently broke out above a key resistance level, making the current pullback all the more attractive. Add exposure.EM remains unchallenged this year from a performance standpoint. While a pullback/pause wouldn’t surprise us, we expect EM to continue to lead, especially in light of the bottom pattern visible in the EM/ACWI ratio.Today’s report includes actionable ideas across the developed and EM universe, and across multiple sectors.

Global Equity Pullback = Buying Opportunity

Taiwan

Momo.com Inc is an e-commerce services company. The Company offers TV shopping and Internet shopping services, including beauty products, clothing, leather goods and food shops.

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Momo.Com Inc (8454 TT)

YY Inc. Facing User and Performer Drainage, Cut TP to US$95

● We see YY is going to face more user and performer drainage issues in 2018 because of its aging community and the increasingly competitive...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Momo 4Q17 Earnings: Upside Guidance Surprise as Results Beat; Stock Soars 9%

What You Need to Know Revenue rose 57.0% to US$386m, while adjusted diluted EPS grew 20.5% to US$0.53. Revenue was 1% higher than consensus, while...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Best World: Full Throttle 2018

Best World International Limited (BEST SP) just reported its full FY 2017 with 10% increase in revenue, 4% gross margin contraction due to higher...

Henry Soediarko

Momo 4Q17 Earnings Preview: Upcoming Earnings Could Make This Stock Dirt Cheap

What’s Happened Since Last Quarter?Since the Company’s last earnings release in November, Momo’s stock has recovered significantly, and is now...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Global Equity Pullback = Buying Opportunity

In today’s report we highlight the follow themes: As a whole, Europe continues to lag, but we like the price patterns—mostly multi-year bases....

Vermilion Research

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