Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei was up 0.6% last week (-2.1% YTD) while the yen weakened 1.2% to 135/$ </li>
<li>Prime Minister Kishida met with US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. China cancelled a meeting between the Foreign Ministers of Japan and China.  </li>
<li>Record high temperatures of 40c, record high Covid cases, 575k people evacuated due to torrential rain &amp; flooding.....keep calm and carry on.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei was up 0.6% last week (-2.1% YTD) while the yen weakened 1.2% to 135/$ 
Prime Minister Kishida met with US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. China cancelled a meeting between the Foreign Ministers of Japan and China.  
Record high temperatures of 40c, record high Covid cases, 575k people evacuated due to torrential rain &amp; flooding.....keep calm and carry on.


Japan Stocks on the Move | Money Forward, Monotaro, CyberAgent

<ul>
<li>We share weekly commentaries on stocks in our coverage that had a good or bad week </li>
<li>Fast Retailing was the standout performer, trading up 11% this week</li>
<li>Wooden spoons for Money Forward and Yaskawa, both lower after reporting earnings</li>
</ul>


We share weekly commentaries on stocks in our coverage that had a good or bad week 
Fast Retailing was the standout performer, trading up 11% this week
Wooden spoons for Money Forward and Yaskawa, both lower after reporting earnings


Japan Stock Commentary | Uniqlo, Yaskawa and Money Forward

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

GigaDevice Semiconductor  / Technical Analysis

<p>Market dynamics remain largely positive which continues to support our constructive outlook, and we view recent weakness as a buying opportunity. Below we highlight notable recent developments and actionable stocks within the Technology, Financials, and Materials Sectors.</p>

Market dynamics remain largely positive which continues to support our constructive outlook, and we view recent weakness as a buying opportunity. Below we highlight notable recent developments and actionable stocks within the Technology, Financials, and Materials Sectors.

China Technology Sector Improving -- Add Exposure

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• LARGE CAP RESULTS - 13th APRIL •</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/200/386/original/image_36527959121618346539491.png?1618346540" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="200386"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>RESULTS</strong> - Only 38% of Tuesdays 69 results announcements scored positively. Of the largest-cap stocks reporting, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toho-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7806:1" rel="noopener">Toho (9602 JP)</a> cinemas has yet to bottom out but is still in profit. 'New wave' software companies <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sansan-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28112:1" rel="noopener">Sansan (4443 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/money-forward-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25919:1" rel="noopener">Money Forward (3994 JP)</a> are growing into their extreme valuations, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pasona-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15778:1" rel="noopener">Pasona's</a> under-appreciated margin transformation continues. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/200/403/original/image_63727914331618348873715.png?1618348877" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="200403"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/200/404/original/image_12260447541618348911606.png?1618348912" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="200404"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/200/405/original/image_35233699051618348944141.png?1618348944" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="200405"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/200/406/original/image_14670185761618348969100.png?1618348969" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="200406"></figure><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• LARGE CAP FORECASTS/REVISIONS - 13th APRIL •</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/200/407/original/image_58511005871618349036093.png?1618349036" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="200407"></figure><p><strong>FORECASTS/REVISIONS</strong> - Two-thirds of annual forecasts/revisions were positive, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toho-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7806:1" rel="noopener">Toho (9602 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-front-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8947:1" rel="noopener">J Front Retailing (3086 JP)</a> the leading largest-cap optimists. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/santen-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8602:1" rel="noopener">Santen Pharmaceutical (4536 JP)</a> revised down following a delay in the approval of glaucoma implant DE-128.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/200/408/original/image_63605452481618349380112.png?1618349381" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="200408"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/200/409/original/image_46822562891618349413296.png?1618349413" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="200409"></figure>

• LARGE CAP RESULTS - 13th APRIL •Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsRESULTS - Only 38% of Tuesdays 69 results announcements scored positively. Of the largest-cap stocks reporting, Toho (9602 JP) cinemas has yet to bottom out but is still in profit. 'New wave' software companies Sansan (4443 JP) and Money Forward (3994 JP) are growing into their extreme valuations, while Pasona's under-appreciated margin transformation continues. • LARGE CAP FORECASTS/REVISIONS - 13th APRIL •FORECASTS/REVISIONS - Two-thirds of annual forecasts/revisions were positive, with Toho (9602 JP) and J Front Retailing (3086 JP) the leading largest-cap optimists. Santen Pharmaceutical (4536 JP) revised down following a delay in the approval of glaucoma implant DE-128.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/​​​​​​13 - Pasona (Grata) & J Front Retailing

<div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/146/359/original/2020-07-16_06-39-04.png?1594849241" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="146359"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/146/360/original/2020-07-16_06-42-12.png?1594849361" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="146360"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
<p><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/money-forward-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25919:1" rel="noopener">Money Forward (3994 JP)</a></strong>- Money Forward's impressive revenue growth continued unabated in the second quarter. However necessary the ¥611 million (22% of sales) quarterly advertising budget is to sustain such revenue momentum, the lack of 'margin' improvement has shaved two points from our Results Score. The shares are close to a new Relative Price Score high and to being Overbought. We would trim into any announcement bounce above ¥8,000.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
</div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>66 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Results Score:</strong> 10 Positive / 9 Neutral / 47 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -5.4</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -14.7% Quarter YoY / +1.3% Rolling TTM YoY</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -3.2ppt</li>
<li>
<strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 42%</li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><br><strong>24 Annual • 9 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 7 Positive / 4 Neutral / 13 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 1 Positive / 0 Neutral / 8 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -9.3</li>
</ul></div>


Source • Japan Analytics
Money Forward (3994 JP)- Money Forward's impressive revenue growth continued unabated in the second quarter. However necessary the ¥611 million (22% of sales) quarterly advertising budget is to sustain such revenue momentum, the lack of 'margin' improvement has shaved two points from our Results Score. The shares are close to a new Relative Price Score high and to being Overbought. We would trim into any announcement bounce above ¥8,000.
DAILY STATS
66 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 10 Positive / 9 Neutral / 47 Negative

Average Results Score Change: -5.4

Average % Change in Revenue: -14.7% Quarter YoY / +1.3% Rolling TTM YoY

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -3.2ppt

Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 42%
 24 Annual • 9 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 7 Positive / 4 Neutral / 13 Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 1 Positive / 0 Neutral / 8 Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -9.3


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 15th July - Money Forward, TKP, Nachi-Fujikoshi, Tokyo Steel

Japan

Money Forward, Inc. develops mobile application software. The Company produces automatic household account book softwares, household account book application softwares, and other products. Money Forward also provides personal financial management, cloud based accounting solutions, and other services.

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Money Forward (3994 JP)

Japan Stocks on the Move | Money Forward, Monotaro, CyberAgent

The Nikkei eked out a small gain last week despite negative macro conditions. 3 stocks in particular performed very well - MoneyForward, Monotaro,...

Mark Chadwick

Japan Stock Commentary | Uniqlo, Yaskawa and Money Forward

We share our weekly commentaries on stocks in our coverage universe that have appreciated or dropped by a significant amount during the course of...

Mark Chadwick

China Technology Sector Improving -- Add Exposure

Market dynamics remain largely positive which continues to support our constructive outlook, and we view recent weakness as a buying opportunity....

Vermilion Research

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/13 - Pasona (Grata) & J Front Retailing

RESULTS - Only 38% of Tuesdays 69 results announcements scored positively. Of the largest-cap stocks reporting, Toho (9602 JP) cinemas has yet to...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 15th July - Money Forward, TKP, Nachi-Fujikoshi, Tokyo Steel

Money Forward (3994 JP)- Money Forward's impressive revenue growth continued unabated in the second quarter. However necessary the ¥611 million...

Campbell Gunn

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Japan Stocks on the Move | Money Forward, Monotaro, CyberAgent

The Nikkei eked out a small gain last week despite negative macro conditions. 3 stocks in particular performed very well - MoneyForward, Monotaro,...

Mark Chadwick

Japan Stock Commentary | Uniqlo, Yaskawa and Money Forward

We share our weekly commentaries on stocks in our coverage universe that have appreciated or dropped by a significant amount during the course of...

Mark Chadwick

China Technology Sector Improving -- Add Exposure

Market dynamics remain largely positive which continues to support our constructive outlook, and we view recent weakness as a buying opportunity....

Vermilion Research

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/​​​​​​13 - Pasona (Grata) & J Front Retailing

RESULTS - Only 38% of Tuesdays 69 results announcements scored positively. Of the largest-cap stocks reporting, Toho (9602 JP) cinemas has yet to...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 15th July - Money Forward, TKP, Nachi-Fujikoshi, Tokyo Steel

Money Forward (3994 JP)- Money Forward's impressive revenue growth continued unabated in the second quarter. However necessary the ¥611 million...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/13 - Pasona (Grata) & J Front Retailing