Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Since releasing Q3 results, Money Forward’s stock price has fallen from 4,800 yen to the present 4,000 yen.</li>
<li>Results on Friday could herald a stronger outlook for the share price. The market is fixated on quarterly earnings and ad spend - these should improve sequentially.</li>
<li>Money Forward will release guidance for the coming fiscal year, which could see the company turn profitable at the EBITDA level.</li>
</ul>


Since releasing Q3 results, Money Forward’s stock price has fallen from 4,800 yen to the present 4,000 yen.
Results on Friday could herald a stronger outlook for the share price. The market is fixated on quarterly earnings and ad spend - these should improve sequentially.
Money Forward will release guidance for the coming fiscal year, which could see the company turn profitable at the EBITDA level.


Money Forward (3394) | Looking Forward - Q4 Preview

<ul>
<li>Money Forward’s stock price has declined by 2% YTD versus a 23% gain for the overall market. Technically, the stock is approaching oversold levels</li>
<li>We see 38% upside for Money Forward’s stock price. At 5.5x EV/revenue, the stock is trading at a 50% discount to global peer, Intuit</li>
<li>We believe that investors are under pricing the size of the Japanese market for cloud accounting and operating leverage from penetration into mid-cap corporate market</li>
</ul>


Money Forward’s stock price has declined by 2% YTD versus a 23% gain for the overall market. Technically, the stock is approaching oversold levels
We see 38% upside for Money Forward’s stock price. At 5.5x EV/revenue, the stock is trading at a 50% discount to global peer, Intuit
We believe that investors are under pricing the size of the Japanese market for cloud accounting and operating leverage from penetration into mid-cap corporate market


Money Forward (3394) | A Growth Stock for 2024

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Group (4755 JP)</a> aims to raise US$430m via selling around 14.6% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35638:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Bank (5838 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>RB is the largest internet bank in Japan, by number of accounts. As of Sep 23, it had 14.3m deposit accounts with a total deposit base of JPY9.5tn.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and updates since our last note.</li>
</ul>



Rakuten Group (4755 JP) aims to raise US$430m via selling around 14.6% of Rakuten Bank (5838 JP). 
RB is the largest internet bank in Japan, by number of accounts. As of Sep 23, it had 14.3m deposit accounts with a total deposit base of JPY9.5tn.
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and updates since our last note.


Rakuten Bank Placement - Was Expected at Some Point, Current Timing Seems Opportunistic

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35638:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Bank (5838 JP)</a> (RB),  the online banking arm of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Group (4755 JP)</a>, raised around US$630m in its Japan IPO. Its IPO linked lockup will expire soon.</li>
<li>RB is the largest internet bank in Japan, by number of accounts. As of Jun 23, it had 14.0m deposit accounts with a total deposit base of JPY9.4tn.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.</li>
</ul>



Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) (RB),  the online banking arm of Rakuten Group (4755 JP), raised around US$630m in its Japan IPO. Its IPO linked lockup will expire soon.
RB is the largest internet bank in Japan, by number of accounts. As of Jun 23, it had 14.0m deposit accounts with a total deposit base of JPY9.4tn.
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.


Rakuten Bank IPO Lock-Up - Parent and Company Will Come Out of Lockup

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/freee-kk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28424:1" rel="noopener">Freee KK (4478 JP)</a> ’s 1QFY06/2024 results beat consensus estimates. Introduction of qualified invoicing system in October has resulted in strong corporate user growth for the company.</li>
<li>Upfront investment in selling and marketing has helped freee onboard a large no. of corporate clients prior to the introduction of the new invoice system.</li>
<li>Freee expects selling and advertising spending to decline going forward which should help the company reach break-even in FY06/2025E.</li>
</ul>



Freee KK (4478 JP) ’s 1QFY06/2024 results beat consensus estimates. Introduction of qualified invoicing system in October has resulted in strong corporate user growth for the company.
Upfront investment in selling and marketing has helped freee onboard a large no. of corporate clients prior to the introduction of the new invoice system.
Freee expects selling and advertising spending to decline going forward which should help the company reach break-even in FY06/2025E.


Freee 1Q: Earnings Beat; Qualified Invoice System to Further Drive Earnings

Japan

Money Forward, Inc. develops mobile application software. The Company produces automatic household account book softwares, household account book application softwares, and other products. Money Forward also provides personal financial management, cloud based accounting solutions, and other services.

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Money Forward (3994 JP)

Money Forward (3394) | Looking Forward - Q4 Preview

Money Forward's stock price has dropped since Q3 results, but upcoming guidance and improved earnings could lead to a stronger outlook.

Mark Chadwick

Money Forward (3394) | A Growth Stock for 2024

Money Forward's stock price has declined YTD & is approaching oversold levels. We see 38% upside. At 5.5x EV/Rev, the stock is trading at a 50%...

Mark Chadwick

Rakuten Bank Placement - Was Expected at Some Point, Current Timing Seems Opportunistic

Rakuten Group (4755 JP) aims to raise US$430m via selling around 14.6% of Rakuten Bank (5838 JP). In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

Rakuten Bank IPO Lock-Up - Parent and Company Will Come Out of Lockup

Rakuten has just announced that it will selldown some of its stake in Rakuten Bank in order to fund redemption of some of its bonds.

Sumeet Singh

Freee 1Q: Earnings Beat; Qualified Invoice System to Further Drive Earnings

Freee's upfront investment in S&M has enabled to onboard a large no. of corporate clients prior to the introduction of the new invoice system....

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Money Forward (3394) | Looking Forward - Q4 Preview

​Money Forward's stock price has dropped since Q3 results, but upcoming guidance and improved earnings could lead to a stronger outlook.

Mark Chadwick

Money Forward (3394) | A Growth Stock for 2024

​Money Forward's stock price has declined YTD & is approaching oversold levels. We see 38% upside. At 5.5x EV/Rev, the stock is trading at a 50%...

Mark Chadwick

Rakuten Bank Placement - Was Expected at Some Point, Current Timing Seems Opportunistic

Rakuten Group (4755 JP) aims to raise US$430m via selling around 14.6% of Rakuten Bank (5838 JP). In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

Rakuten Bank IPO Lock-Up - Parent and Company Will Come Out of Lockup

Rakuten has just announced that it will selldown some of its stake in Rakuten Bank in order to fund redemption of some of its bonds.

Sumeet Singh

Freee 1Q: Earnings Beat; Qualified Invoice System to Further Drive Earnings

Freee's upfront investment in S&M has enabled to onboard a large no. of corporate clients prior to the introduction of the new invoice system....

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Money Forward's stock price has dropped since Q3 results, but upcoming guidance and improved earnings could lead to a stronger outlook.

Money Forward's stock price has declined YTD & is approaching oversold levels. We see 38% upside. At 5.5x EV/Rev, the stock is trading at a 50%...