Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The 2023 vintage of "5 High Conviction Ideas" was commodity heavy with 4 of our 5 picks coming from this sector. Three out of five declined between 15-25%. </li>
<li>Our best performer was unloved <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mongolian-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4382:1" rel="noopener">Mongolian Mining (975 HK)</a> which returned 234% even beating <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> YTD performance.  Miracles happen: Coal mining beats AI.</li>
<li>Our 2024 vintage of top ideas for the year will hopefully have a higher hit ratio. See below for more details which are our five high conviction ideas for 2024.</li>
</ul>


The 2023 vintage of "5 High Conviction Ideas" was commodity heavy with 4 of our 5 picks coming from this sector. Three out of five declined between 15-25%. 
Our best performer was unloved Mongolian Mining (975 HK) which returned 234% even beating NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) YTD performance.  Miracles happen: Coal mining beats AI.
Our 2024 vintage of top ideas for the year will hopefully have a higher hit ratio. See below for more details which are our five high conviction ideas for 2024.


Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2023...and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going Into 2024

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mongolian-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4382:1" rel="noopener">Mongolian Mining (975 HK)</a> released its quarterly production update. While production remained flat QoQ, destocking led to 16.3% YoY sales growth in coal. </li>
<li>The resources at the gold mine (476,000 oz) did not change, but construction of the plant was 55% complete compared to 30% a quarter ago in June. </li>
<li>Trading at 5.6 PE, with opportunities for growth and future dividend payments due to repayment of the perpetual, this is an exciting idea to explore. </li>
</ul>



Mongolian Mining (975 HK) released its quarterly production update. While production remained flat QoQ, destocking led to 16.3% YoY sales growth in coal. 
The resources at the gold mine (476,000 oz) did not change, but construction of the plant was 55% complete compared to 30% a quarter ago in June. 
Trading at 5.6 PE, with opportunities for growth and future dividend payments due to repayment of the perpetual, this is an exciting idea to explore. 


Mongolia Mining 975 HK: Q3 FY24 Operational Update, Gold Project Progressing Well

<ul>
<li>In a <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/1002/2024100202284.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">filing released last evening</a> <span>after the market, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mongolian-mining-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mongolian Mining (975 HK)</a> announced it had redeemed the entire outstanding principal amount of the perpetual securities and their distribution</span>.</li>
<li>The announcement is significant as it prepares the company to distribute dividends for FY24 in the March results. </li>
<li>The stock trades at 5.2x FY24 PE and 2.5x EV-EBITDA, and we expect the company to have massive net cash by the end of the year.</li>
</ul>


In a filing released last evening after the market, Mongolian Mining (975 HK) announced it had redeemed the entire outstanding principal amount of the perpetual securities and their distribution.
The announcement is significant as it prepares the company to distribute dividends for FY24 in the March results. 
The stock trades at 5.2x FY24 PE and 2.5x EV-EBITDA, and we expect the company to have massive net cash by the end of the year.


Mongolia Mining 975 HK: Redemption of Perpetual Securities Complete, Dividend Catalyst In-Play

<ul>
<li>The 2024 vintage of "5 High Conviction Ideas" showed three stocks with positive performance and two with losses.</li>
<li>Our best performer was <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/plover-bay-technologies-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24191:1" rel="noopener">Plover Bay Technologies (1523 HK)</a> which increased 157% in FY24. While our worst performer was <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aem-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11019:1" rel="noopener">AEM (AEM SP)</a> down over 60%.</li>
<li>Our 2025 vintage of top ideas is heavily copper-focused as we continue to believe the supply crunch in copper is real and set to get worse.</li>
</ul>


The 2024 vintage of "5 High Conviction Ideas" showed three stocks with positive performance and two with losses.
Our best performer was Plover Bay Technologies (1523 HK) which increased 157% in FY24. While our worst performer was AEM (AEM SP) down over 60%.
Our 2025 vintage of top ideas is heavily copper-focused as we continue to believe the supply crunch in copper is real and set to get worse.


Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2024...and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going Into 2025

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 38 adds and 29 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the September rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 518.</li>
<li>We expect 33 of the 38 HSCI inclusions to be added to Stock Connect while we expect 27 of the 29 HSCI deletions to be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.</li>
<li>Since the start of the calendar year, shares held though Southbound Connect have increased in 22 of the 27 HSCI deletions that will also be removed from Stock Connect.</li>
</ul>


There are 38 adds and 29 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the September rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 518.
We expect 33 of the 38 HSCI inclusions to be added to Stock Connect while we expect 27 of the 29 HSCI deletions to be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.
Since the start of the calendar year, shares held though Southbound Connect have increased in 22 of the 27 HSCI deletions that will also be removed from Stock Connect.


HSCI Index Rebalance: 38 Adds, 29 Deletes & Changes to Southbound Stock Connect

Mongolia

Mongolian Mining Corporation produces coking coal.  The Company operates the Ukhaa Khudag mine in Mongolia.

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Mongolian Mining (975 HK)

Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2023...and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going Into 2024

Our stand-out performer in FY23 was little loved Mongolia Mining. For FY24 we provide five new names which we think can perform strongly.

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Mongolia Mining 975 HK: Q3 FY24 Operational Update, Gold Project Progressing Well

We provide an update on Mongolia Mining Corp 975 HK Q3 2024 operations. Trading at 5.6x FY24 PE with a high probability of paying dividends in FY25...

Sameer Taneja

Mongolia Mining 975 HK: Redemption of Perpetual Securities Complete, Dividend Catalyst In-Play

We discuss a significant catalyst for Mongolia Mining 975 HK: the company redeemed its perpetual security, paving the way for future dividend...

Sameer Taneja

Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2024...and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going Into 2025

2024's "5 High Conviction Ideas" had mixed results, with Plover Bay Technologies soaring 157% while AEM Holdings plummeted over 60%. 2025's focus...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

HSCI Index Rebalance: 38 Adds, 29 Deletes & Changes to Southbound Stock Connect

There are 38 adds and 29 deletes for the HSCI at the September rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 518. There will be a lot of...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2023...and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going Into 2024

Our stand-out performer in FY23 was little loved Mongolia Mining. For FY24 we provide five new names which we think can perform strongly.

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Mongolia Mining 975 HK: Q3 FY24 Operational Update, Gold Project Progressing Well

We provide an update on Mongolia Mining Corp 975 HK Q3 2024 operations. Trading at 5.6x FY24 PE with a high probability of paying dividends in FY25...

Sameer Taneja

Mongolia Mining 975 HK: Redemption of Perpetual Securities Complete, Dividend Catalyst In-Play

We discuss a significant catalyst for Mongolia Mining 975 HK: the company redeemed its perpetual security, paving the way for future dividend...

Sameer Taneja

Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2024...and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going Into 2025

​2024's "5 High Conviction Ideas" had mixed results, with Plover Bay Technologies soaring 157% while AEM Holdings plummeted over 60%. 2025's focus...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

HSCI Index Rebalance: 38 Adds, 29 Deletes & Changes to Southbound Stock Connect

There are 38 adds and 29 deletes for the HSCI at the September rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 518. There will be a lot of...

Brian Freitas

2024's "5 High Conviction Ideas" had mixed results, with Plover Bay Technologies soaring 157% while AEM Holdings plummeted over 60%. 2025's focus...