Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The 2023 vintage of "5 High Conviction Ideas" was commodity heavy with 4 of our 5 picks coming from this sector. Three out of five declined between 15-25%. </li>
<li>Our best performer was unloved <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mongolian-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4382:1" rel="noopener">Mongolian Mining (975 HK)</a> which returned 234% even beating <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> YTD performance.  Miracles happen: Coal mining beats AI.</li>
<li>Our 2024 vintage of top ideas for the year will hopefully have a higher hit ratio. See below for more details which are our five high conviction ideas for 2024.</li>
</ul>


The 2023 vintage of "5 High Conviction Ideas" was commodity heavy with 4 of our 5 picks coming from this sector. Three out of five declined between 15-25%. 
Our best performer was unloved Mongolian Mining (975 HK) which returned 234% even beating NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) YTD performance.  Miracles happen: Coal mining beats AI.
Our 2024 vintage of top ideas for the year will hopefully have a higher hit ratio. See below for more details which are our five high conviction ideas for 2024.


Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2023...and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going Into 2024

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mongolian-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4382:1" rel="noopener">Mongolian Mining (975 HK)</a> disclosed its fiscal year 2024 results, which exceeded market expectations marginally, showing YoY increases in revenue and profits of 0.4% and 1.2%, respectively.</li>
<li>The company indicated that the Working Group formed under Prime Minister's Order No. 32 encompasses all national miners, not just MMCs alone. </li>
<li>Mining Law 5.4 may result in the government taking a 50% stake in the mining companies whose deposits were state-funded or increasing the mining royalty nationwide. </li>
</ul>



Mongolian Mining (975 HK) disclosed its fiscal year 2024 results, which exceeded market expectations marginally, showing YoY increases in revenue and profits of 0.4% and 1.2%, respectively.
The company indicated that the Working Group formed under Prime Minister's Order No. 32 encompasses all national miners, not just MMCs alone. 
Mining Law 5.4 may result in the government taking a 50% stake in the mining companies whose deposits were state-funded or increasing the mining royalty nationwide. 


Mongolia Mining 975 HK: FY24 Results and Concall, Some Clarity Provided On The Mining Issue

<ul>
<li>Following our piece, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fushan-energy-639-hk-coking-coal-prices-to-strengthen-with-anglo-accident" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:150683" rel="noopener">Fushan Energy (639 HK): Coking Coal Prices To Strengthen With Anglo Accident</a>, we highlight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mongolian-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4382:1" rel="noopener">Mongolian Mining (975 HK)</a> as another play with growth potential. </li>
<li>With a market capitalization of 1.1 bn USD, it trades at 5.3x PE, trailing, and with <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0221/2024022100574.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the sale of 20% of its subsidiary KEX</a>, it is net cash. </li>
<li>Potential catalysts include the payment of a first dividend once it has redeemed the perpetual notes and the commencement of its <a href="https://erdene.com/site/assets/files/4243/erd_q3_2024.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">highly accretive gold project in 2025 in Mongolia</a>. </li>
</ul>


Following our piece, Fushan Energy (639 HK): Coking Coal Prices To Strengthen With Anglo Accident, we highlight Mongolian Mining (975 HK) as another play with growth potential. 
With a market capitalization of 1.1 bn USD, it trades at 5.3x PE, trailing, and with the sale of 20% of its subsidiary KEX, it is net cash. 
Potential catalysts include the payment of a first dividend once it has redeemed the perpetual notes and the commencement of its highly accretive gold project in 2025 in Mongolia. 


Mongolia Mining Corp (975 HK): Play on Coking Coal Price With Growth Optionality

<ul>
<li>Following our insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mongolia-mining-corp-975-hk-play-on-coking-coal-price-with-growth-optionality" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mongolia Mining Corp (975 HK): Play on Coking Coal Price With Growth Optionality, </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mongolian-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4382:1" rel="noopener">Mongolian Mining (975 HK)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mongolia-mining-corp-975-hk-play-on-coking-coal-price-with-growth-optionality" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> </a>has released its <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0722/2024072200375.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Q2 2024 operational numbers</a>. </li>
<li>For Q2, the sales of coking coal products increased by 47% YoY and for H1 by 25% YoY. HCC was only 63% of the product mix (vs 87% in H1FY23).</li>
<li>Based on our numbers, the stock trades at 5.6x FY24 PE and 2.6x EV-EBITDA. We await the H1 FY23 results and clarity on the dividend catalyst in August. </li>
</ul>


Following our insight, Mongolia Mining Corp (975 HK): Play on Coking Coal Price With Growth Optionality, Mongolian Mining (975 HK) has released its Q2 2024 operational numbers. 
For Q2, the sales of coking coal products increased by 47% YoY and for H1 by 25% YoY. HCC was only 63% of the product mix (vs 87% in H1FY23).
Based on our numbers, the stock trades at 5.6x FY24 PE and 2.6x EV-EBITDA. We await the H1 FY23 results and clarity on the dividend catalyst in August. 


Mongolian Mining (975 HK): Q2 2024 Production Impressive, Good Set Up for H1

<ul>
<li>The 2024 vintage of "5 High Conviction Ideas" showed three stocks with positive performance and two with losses.</li>
<li>Our best performer was <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/plover-bay-technologies-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24191:1" rel="noopener">Plover Bay Technologies (1523 HK)</a> which increased 157% in FY24. While our worst performer was <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aem-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11019:1" rel="noopener">AEM (AEM SP)</a> down over 60%.</li>
<li>Our 2025 vintage of top ideas is heavily copper-focused as we continue to believe the supply crunch in copper is real and set to get worse.</li>
</ul>


The 2024 vintage of "5 High Conviction Ideas" showed three stocks with positive performance and two with losses.
Our best performer was Plover Bay Technologies (1523 HK) which increased 157% in FY24. While our worst performer was AEM (AEM SP) down over 60%.
Our 2025 vintage of top ideas is heavily copper-focused as we continue to believe the supply crunch in copper is real and set to get worse.


Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2024...and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going Into 2025

Mongolia

Mongolian Mining Corporation is a high-quality coking coal producer and exporter, operating two open-pit coking coal mines, Ukhaa Khudag and Baruun Naran, in the Umnugobi aimag of Mongolia. The company's operations encompass the mining, processing, transportation, and sale of various coal products, primarily washed hard-coking coal. It is headquartered in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, and was incorporated in 2010.

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Mongolian Mining (975 HK)

Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2023...and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going Into 2024

Our stand-out performer in FY23 was little loved Mongolia Mining. For FY24 we provide five new names which we think can perform strongly.

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Mongolia Mining 975 HK: FY24 Results and Concall, Some Clarity Provided On The Mining Issue

We summarize Mongolia Mining's results and key updates from the post-results conference call, which aimed to clarify concerns regarding the mining...

Sameer Taneja

Mongolia Mining Corp (975 HK): Play on Coking Coal Price With Growth Optionality

The company has recently released its H1 FY24, which was in line with expectations as revenues/profits were up 5%/-3% YoY. The most important...

Sameer Taneja