European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

Daily Mail & General Trust / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
Lord Rothermere has agreed to pay 255p a share for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daily-mail-general-trust-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21904:1" rel="noopener">Daily Mail &amp; General Trust (DMGT LN)</a> plus debts, up 1.6% from an £810 million or 251p a share proposal first made in July. The deal will be financed with cash from the cash element from the special dividend.
</li>
<li>
The consideration, worth 1263.3p/share as of 2 November (up from my 1,131p estimate in July), 39% premium to the 3-month VWAP, is broken down as follows: 255p/share for the share capital of DMGT + Special Dividend: 568p + 0.5749 Cazoo shares + Final dividend worth 17.3p/share.
</li>
<li>The deal will close, in my view. Gross spread as of 10 November was 8.5%. Recommendation is long DMGT LN. The risk is a declining share price of Cazoo, so 0.5749 Cazoo shares may be shorted per DMGT share to lock in the spread, but the hedge should be adjusted downwards if the share price of CZOO rises above the equivalent of 738p, as RCL will deliver a lesser proportion of CZOO shares.</li>
</ul>



Lord Rothermere has agreed to pay 255p a share for Daily Mail &amp; General Trust (DMGT LN) plus debts, up 1.6% from an £810 million or 251p a share proposal first made in July. The deal will be financed with cash from the cash element from the special dividend.


The consideration, worth 1263.3p/share as of 2 November (up from my 1,131p estimate in July), 39% premium to the 3-month VWAP, is broken down as follows: 255p/share for the share capital of DMGT + Special Dividend: 568p + 0.5749 Cazoo shares + Final dividend worth 17.3p/share.

The deal will close, in my view. Gross spread as of 10 November was 8.5%. Recommendation is long DMGT LN. The risk is a declining share price of Cazoo, so 0.5749 Cazoo shares may be shorted per DMGT share to lock in the spread, but the hedge should be adjusted downwards if the share price of CZOO rises above the equivalent of 738p, as RCL will deliver a lesser proportion of CZOO shares.


Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>Moody's delivered an exceptional financial result in the second quarter of the fiscal year 2021, surpassing Wall Street expectations.</li><li>Its Analytics business managed to achieve the highest ever quarterly revenue, up 15% compared to the comparable quarter of 2020.</li><li>In this quarter, the management launched an industry-first ESG Score Predictor, combining Moody's ESG scoring methodology with company-specific data and predictive analytics in order to produce ESG scores for more than 140 million small as well as medium-sized companies.</li></ul>

Moody's delivered an exceptional financial result in the second quarter of the fiscal year 2021, surpassing Wall Street expectations.Its Analytics business managed to achieve the highest ever quarterly revenue, up 15% compared to the comparable quarter of 2020.In this quarter, the management launched an industry-first ESG Score Predictor, combining Moody's ESG scoring methodology with company-specific data and predictive analytics in order to produce ESG scores for more than 140 million small as well as medium-sized companies.

Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

Two days ago the U.K. Financial Reporting Council announced 125 successful signatories (aka "not greenwashers") to the revised U.K. Stewardship Code. Signatories are integrating stewardship and ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) factors into investment decisions, to high standards.Whilst this is ostensibly limited to U.K. pension assets, ramifications are more far-reaching than it might at first appear (one indication is the number of North American and Asia Pacific signatories, in addition to the expected European names). More specifically, the broad relevance is because it:<ul>
<li>Affects firms doing business with U.K. asset managers/owners not just the managers/owners.</li>
<li>Is a quasi-blueprint for similar anti-greenwashing initiatives taking root in the U.S. and Asia.</li>
<li>Greenwashing is having an increasing impact on stocks prices (e.g., DWS Group last month).</li>
</ul>This is one battle in an emerging global war on greenwashing. The U.S. SEC has its own agenda to fight greenwashing and Asia isn't far behind (e.g., regulators in Japan stepping up scrutiny). There is more to come, and a lot to learn from this including who is (and is not) on the signatory list.

Two days ago the U.K. Financial Reporting Council announced 125 successful signatories (aka "not greenwashers") to the revised U.K. Stewardship Code. Signatories are integrating stewardship and ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) factors into investment decisions, to high standards.Whilst this is ostensibly limited to U.K. pension assets, ramifications are more far-reaching than it might at first appear (one indication is the number of North American and Asia Pacific signatories, in addition to the expected European names). More specifically, the broad relevance is because it:
Affects firms doing business with U.K. asset managers/owners not just the managers/owners.
Is a quasi-blueprint for similar anti-greenwashing initiatives taking root in the U.S. and Asia.
Greenwashing is having an increasing impact on stocks prices (e.g., DWS Group last month).
This is one battle in an emerging global war on greenwashing. The U.S. SEC has its own agenda to fight greenwashing and Asia isn't far behind (e.g., regulators in Japan stepping up scrutiny). There is more to come, and a lot to learn from this including who is (and is not) on the signatory list.

The War on Greenwashing: UK Stewardship Code "Successful Signatories" Has Broader Implications

<ul><li>Moody’s is a global financial giant and is a part of the global oligopoly of ratings agencies.</li><li>There has been a heavy consolidation in the ratings industry including the merger of S&P Global and IHS Markit and also the acquisition of Fitch Group by Hearst.</li><li>In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.</li></ul>

Moody’s is a global financial giant and is a part of the global oligopoly of ratings agencies.There has been a heavy consolidation in the ratings industry including the merger of S&P Global and IHS Markit and also the acquisition of Fitch Group by Hearst.In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

We are beginning to see some mild deterioration in market dynamics, including a break below the key 1.45% support level on the 10-year Treasury yield which is coupled with underperformance from small-caps and value Sectors. Still, other indicators remain largely positive. As a result, we continue to see a mixed, but overall constructive market.

We are beginning to see some mild deterioration in market dynamics, including a break below the key 1.45% support level on the 10-year Treasury yield which is coupled with underperformance from small-caps and value Sectors. Still, other indicators remain largely positive. As a result, we continue to see a mixed, but overall constructive market.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Shifting To Growth As 10-Yr Yield Breaks Key Support

United States

Moody's Corporation is a credit rating, research, and risk analysis firm.  The Company provides credit ratings and related research, data and analytical tools, quantitative credit risk measures, risk scoring software, and credit portfolio management solutions and securities pricing software and valuation models.

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Moody's Corp (MCO US)

RCL/DMGT: Package Value and Spread

This somehow cheeky bid is likely to close. There's cash for the newspapers, plus a special dividend, partly in CZOO shares. Gross spread is 8.5%....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Moody's Corporation - Investment Thesis

Moody's delivered an exceptional financial result in the second quarter of the fiscal year 2021, surpassing Wall Street expectations. Its...

Baptista Research

The War on Greenwashing: UK Stewardship Code "Successful Signatories" Has Broader Implications

Telegraph from European front in global war on greenwashing. U.K. names stewardship victors ("not greenwashers"). Many notable casualties. Anti...

Kyle Rudden

Moodys Corporation - Invt Thesis

Moody’s is a global financial giant and is a part of the global oligopoly of ratings agencies. There has been a heavy consolidation in the ratings...

Baptista Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Shifting To Growth As 10-Yr Yield Breaks Key Support

Upgrading Technology, Downgrading Financials, Materials, and Industrials. We discuss implications of the break below the key 1.45% support level on...

Vermilion Research

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