Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>US banks' high-frequency data (HFD) released from the Fed shows the 6th week in a row of higher than 4% YoY loan growth (and highest yet at 4.43%)</li>
<li>The change in loans during the first 6 weeks of 3Q25 is +USD85bn compared with +USD1bn in the same period last year</li>
<li>C&amp;I loan growth has seen strong delta over past 52 weeks and LLR growth remains subdued, suggesting good credit metrics</li>
</ul>


US banks' high-frequency data (HFD) released from the Fed shows the 6th week in a row of higher than 4% YoY loan growth (and highest yet at 4.43%)
The change in loans during the first 6 weeks of 3Q25 is +USD85bn compared with +USD1bn in the same period last year
C&amp;I loan growth has seen strong delta over past 52 weeks and LLR growth remains subdued, suggesting good credit metrics


US Banks - At 6 Weeks into 3Q25, +USD85bn Loans, Vs +USD1bn at 6 Weeks into 2Q24

<ul>
<li>US banks have saw loans rise from USD2 tr to USD13 tr from 1990 to newest release; it is 1st time we have seen USD13,005bn in loans</li>
<li>US banks are still seeing growth rates YoY at over 4%, with this pace of growth now seen for the past 5 weeks of data</li>
<li>Even where the Senior Loan Officer Survey is mixed (not in this report), US banks are seeing good lending growth, and benign provisions</li>
</ul>


US banks have saw loans rise from USD2 tr to USD13 tr from 1990 to newest release; it is 1st time we have seen USD13,005bn in loans
US banks are still seeing growth rates YoY at over 4%, with this pace of growth now seen for the past 5 weeks of data
Even where the Senior Loan Officer Survey is mixed (not in this report), US banks are seeing good lending growth, and benign provisions


US Banks - USD13 Trillion in Loans, First Time Ever, as at Week 30 July

<ul>
<li>High frequency data on LLR for US banks suggests very good credit metrics</li>
<li>There is no decline of LLR on banks' balance sheet and LLR YoY growth is benign</li>
<li>At the same time, assets less liabilities remains at 18.6% of total loans, a good buffer</li>
</ul>


High frequency data on LLR for US banks suggests very good credit metrics
There is no decline of LLR on banks' balance sheet and LLR YoY growth is benign
At the same time, assets less liabilities remains at 18.6% of total loans, a good buffer


US Banks - Weekly LLR Data Suggests Strong Credit Metrics, 3rd Week in Row of over +4% Loans

<ul>
<li>New H8 release from Fed shows another strong week of YoY loan growth at 4.22%</li>
<li>The delta in C&amp;I loans which are core to economy is exceptional, now at 3.68% YoY</li>
<li>With loan loss reserves only growing at 1.15% YoY, credit metrics appear benign</li>
</ul>


New H8 release from Fed shows another strong week of YoY loan growth at 4.22%
The delta in C&amp;I loans which are core to economy is exceptional, now at 3.68% YoY
With loan loss reserves only growing at 1.15% YoY, credit metrics appear benign


US Banks - Another Week of >4% YoY Loan Growth, Credit Metrics Look Good: Meager LLR Growth

<ul>
<li>Weekly loan data is up a lot in week ending 2 July suggesting the geopolitical events are not negating credit demand in the US - demand is accelerating.</li>
<li>Over the past three weeks loans are up USD119bn and there is no other 3 week period that compares in recent months. </li>
<li>Total loan growth is now 4.2% YoY where C&amp;I loan growth accelerated from 2.3% YoY to 3.2% YoY, in the most recent week.</li>
</ul>


Weekly loan data is up a lot in week ending 2 July suggesting the geopolitical events are not negating credit demand in the US - demand is accelerating.
Over the past three weeks loans are up USD119bn and there is no other 3 week period that compares in recent months. 
Total loan growth is now 4.2% YoY where C&amp;I loan growth accelerated from 2.3% YoY to 3.2% YoY, in the most recent week.


US Banks - New Loans Up USD119bn in past 3 Weeks. There Is No Recent Comparative This High.

United States

Morgan Stanley, a bank holding company, provides diversified financial services on a worldwide basis.  The Company operates a global securities business which serves individual and institutional investors and investment banking clients. Morgan Stanley also operates a global asset management business.

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Morgan Stanley (MS US)

US Banks - At 6 Weeks into 3Q25, +USD85bn Loans, Vs +USD1bn at 6 Weeks into 2Q24

US banks' HFD shows strong and accelerating loan growth. The change in loans during the 6 weeks into 3Q25 is $85bn vs $1bn in 3Q24. C&I is strong,...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - USD13 Trillion in Loans, First Time Ever, as at Week 30 July

US banks have seen loans outstanding rise above USD13 trillion for the first time ever. The growth rate remains above 4% YoY for five weeks...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Weekly LLR Data Suggests Strong Credit Metrics, 3rd Week in Row of over +4% Loans

US banks weekly data shows LLR remains strong at over USD200bn with still benign YoY % growth, suggesting very good credit metrics. We now have 3rd...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Another Week of >4% YoY Loan Growth, Credit Metrics Look Good: Meager LLR Growth

US banks show another week of >4% YoY loan growth, two consecutive weeks, only time we have seen at least since first week of FY24. C&I loan delta...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - New Loans Up USD119bn in past 3 Weeks. There Is No Recent Comparative This High.

Weekly B/S data for US banks shows far higher loan growth in the week, much is driven by core C&I loans. LLR balances are lower, growth rate moved...

Daniel Tabbush

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