Frontier and Emerging Markets, Indigo Frontier

Dylan Waller

Frontier and Emerging Markets

Indigo Frontier

Writing about things that I plan to invest in during the next decade

Frontier Market and Emerging Markets

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Commodity price gyrations and political black swan events will shape frontier and emerging equity markets during the next few years.</li>
<li>2022-2023 are the best years to selectively shop for attractive narratives, as normalization in commodity prices and geopolitical tensions is necessary in order to adopt a holistic bullish view of emerging market equities.</li>
<li>If equity valuations move towards Post 2008 levels, then emerging market equities could be one of the most attractive buys of this decade by 2024 or later.</li>
</ul>


Commodity price gyrations and political black swan events will shape frontier and emerging equity markets during the next few years.
2022-2023 are the best years to selectively shop for attractive narratives, as normalization in commodity prices and geopolitical tensions is necessary in order to adopt a holistic bullish view of emerging market equities.
If equity valuations move towards Post 2008 levels, then emerging market equities could be one of the most attractive buys of this decade by 2024 or later.


Commodities, Politics, and Mispriced Securities in Emerging Markets

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>This is now the third Int'l Compass/third week in a row where we are discussing an increasing number of country indexes experiencing bullish 3.5-9-month downtrend reversals.</li>
<li>Importantly, all of the previously mentioned indexes are holding above their breakout levels (i.e., there has yet to be any failed breakouts).</li>
<li>Now, the U.S. dollar (DXY) is starting to show early signs of topping. We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process.</li>
</ul>


This is now the third Int'l Compass/third week in a row where we are discussing an increasing number of country indexes experiencing bullish 3.5-9-month downtrend reversals.
Importantly, all of the previously mentioned indexes are holding above their breakout levels (i.e., there has yet to be any failed breakouts).
Now, the U.S. dollar (DXY) is starting to show early signs of topping. We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process.


U.S. Dollar Topping?; Bullish Reversals Continue; Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals, Financials

<ul><li>Egyptian equities are beginning to enter a bottoming out phase, although there is likely more economic pain this year and no near-term stock market catalysts are present.</li><li>However, with MSCI Egypt trading at circa six times forward earnings, a near 50% discount to MSCI Emerging Markets, Egypt appears to be positioned very well in terms of relative value</li><li>Some of the major headwinds approaching include food/energy inflation, declining tourism, and Egypt’s entry into another IMF program this year</li></ul>

Egyptian equities are beginning to enter a bottoming out phase, although there is likely more economic pain this year and no near-term stock market catalysts are present.However, with MSCI Egypt trading at circa six times forward earnings, a near 50% discount to MSCI Emerging Markets, Egypt appears to be positioned very well in terms of relative valueSome of the major headwinds approaching include food/energy inflation, declining tourism, and Egypt’s entry into another IMF program this year

Egyptian Equities Are Approaching a Bottom

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Indexes have plunged since violating our "lines-in-the-sand" of 3875 on EURO STOXX 50, 14,815 on the DAX, $54 on ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), $75.25 on EAFE (EFA-US), and $99 on ACWI(ACWI-US).</li>
<li>More recently, Japan’s TOPIX broke below the key 1840 level, as the number of countries breaking down increases.</li>
<li>We remain bearish at the index level as long as these indexes continue to make lower highs, and we expect that any bottoming process would take weeks/months to develop.</li>
</ul>


Indexes have plunged since violating our "lines-in-the-sand" of 3875 on EURO STOXX 50, 14,815 on the DAX, $54 on ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), $75.25 on EAFE (EFA-US), and $99 on ACWI(ACWI-US).
More recently, Japan’s TOPIX broke below the key 1840 level, as the number of countries breaking down increases.
We remain bearish at the index level as long as these indexes continue to make lower highs, and we expect that any bottoming process would take weeks/months to develop.


Monitoring For A Bottom; Focus On Defensives

<ul>
<li>The broad global indexes are decisively below our "lines in the sand" of $54 on MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), $75.25 on MSCI EAFE (EFA-US), and $99 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>As noted in our Feb. 15 Int'l Macro Vision, we are bearish at the index level as long as we are below the aforementioned levels.</li>
<li>Global 10-year sovereign yields remain elevated, leading to outperformance from value Sectors (Energy/Materials/Financials) which remain our preferred area of the market. We also continue to like defensive areas, especially Staples.</li>
</ul>


The broad global indexes are decisively below our "lines in the sand" of $54 on MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), $75.25 on MSCI EAFE (EFA-US), and $99 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
As noted in our Feb. 15 Int'l Macro Vision, we are bearish at the index level as long as we are below the aforementioned levels.
Global 10-year sovereign yields remain elevated, leading to outperformance from value Sectors (Energy/Materials/Financials) which remain our preferred area of the market. We also continue to like defensive areas, especially Staples.


Buying Metals/Mining and Consumer Staples

China

The MSCI Em (Emerging Markets) Index is a free-float weighted equity index that captures large and mid cap representation across Emerging Markets (EM) countries. The index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.

MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MXEF INDEX)

Commodities, Politics, and Mispriced Securities in Emerging Markets

Commodity price gyrations and political black swan events will shape frontier and emerging equity markets during the next few years.

Dylan Waller

U.S. Dollar Topping?; Bullish Reversals Continue; Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals, Financials

This is now the third week in a row where we are discussing an increasing number of country indexes with bullish 3.5-9-month downtrend reversals,...

Vermilion Research

Egyptian Equities Are Approaching a Bottom

Egyptian equities are beginning to enter a bottoming out phase, although there is likely more economic pain this year and no near-term stock market...

Dylan Waller

Monitoring For A Bottom; Focus On Defensives

Defensive Sectors including Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Utilities are emerging as leadership -- add exposure. Today we are focusing on...

Vermilion Research

Buying Metals/Mining and Consumer Staples

Commodity prices remain in a secular bull market, and now even gold is joining the rally. This is bullish for global metals/mining stocks (precious...

Vermilion Research