Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

This report highlights actionable themes across the EM universe, including: bullish inflections in the Russian and Thai markets, and a pullback opportunity in India's SENSEX.  We also highlight actionable setups in MSCI EM Energy and Materials sectors and within Taiwanese Financials/Banks.  Finally we uncover a number of attractive bottoms-up opportunities, sorted by sector and market-cap.

This report highlights actionable themes across the EM universe, including: bullish inflections in the Russian and Thai markets, and a pullback opportunity in India's SENSEX.  We also highlight actionable setups in MSCI EM Energy and Materials sectors and within Taiwanese Financials/Banks.  Finally we uncover a number of attractive bottoms-up opportunities, sorted by sector and market-cap.

EM Strategy: Russia and Thailand Bullishly Inflecting; Pullback Opportunity in India

Emerging Market Economist, Emerginomics

Tatiana Orlova

Emerging Market Economist

Emerginomics

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

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Russian PM Medvedev is no President Erdogan and has not previously sought to influence central bank policy. Nevertheless, on Thursday 6 September, his casual remark caused a 1.3% weakening of the RUB vs. USD. A joint statement by the UK, US, Canada, France and Germany condemning the government which "most certainly" approved the Skripal poisoning, added fuel to the fire.
Understandably, Russian markets remain on tenterhooks while US Congressmen are deciding on the proposed new sanctions. However, we think the sharp market move also reflects how extremely jittery EM investors have become. 
What could put an end to the indiscriminate selling of EM assets, or at least slow it down? 
First, policymakers in most affected EM economies need to demonstrate to investors that they still have tools required to stabilise markets and willingness to improve their policies. 
Second, we think that the US Federal Reserve should at least acknowledge at the upcoming September meeting that the spreading EM crisis could eventually have some negative effects on the US economy. In the long run, the US needs to assume at least some responsibility for the health of the global economy to ensure that the US dollar retains its role as the global reserve currency. With the US Administration actively engaging in isolationist policies that may harm global growth, it is the Fed who needs to give a positive signal to the global markets.
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Russian PM Medvedev is no President Erdogan and has not previously sought to influence central bank policy. Nevertheless, on Thursday 6 September, his casual remark caused a 1.3% weakening of the RUB vs. USD. A joint statement by the UK, US, Canada, France and Germany condemning the government which "most certainly" approved the Skripal poisoning, added fuel to the fire.
Understandably, Russian markets remain on tenterhooks while US Congressmen are deciding on the proposed new sanctions. However, we think the sharp market move also reflects how extremely jittery EM investors have become. 
What could put an end to the indiscriminate selling of EM assets, or at least slow it down? 
First, policymakers in most affected EM economies need to demonstrate to investors that they still have tools required to stabilise markets and willingness to improve their policies. 
Second, we think that the US Federal Reserve should at least acknowledge at the upcoming September meeting that the spreading EM crisis could eventually have some negative effects on the US economy. In the long run, the US needs to assume at least some responsibility for the health of the global economy to ensure that the US dollar retains its role as the global reserve currency. With the US Administration actively engaging in isolationist policies that may harm global growth, it is the Fed who needs to give a positive signal to the global markets.


Rouble Plunges Again Despite Efforts to Contain the Rout. What Is Required to Contain EM Sell-Off?

In this report we provide a synopsis of EM markets. We also scour the EM universe for attractive and actionable opportunities, highlighting opportunities within India's SENSEX, global energy and materials sectors, and Asian banks.

In this report we provide a synopsis of EM markets. We also scour the EM universe for attractive and actionable opportunities, highlighting opportunities within India's SENSEX, global energy and materials sectors, and Asian banks.

The MSCI EM index has recovered over the last couple of weeks and is now approaching a logical resistance level. We reiterate: avoid broad EM exposure and be selective.  India’s S&amp;P BSE SENSEX is our top country-specific EM index recommendation, overweight India. We also provide an update on Brazil’s Bovespa, which has surged over the last month following a steep selloff. We are skeptical that the index will be able to continue its unabated advance.  Today’s report also includes a wide variety of bottom-up recommendations spanning most sectors and all market capitalizations.

The MSCI EM index has recovered over the last couple of weeks and is now approaching a logical resistance level. We reiterate: avoid broad EM exposure and be selective.  India’s S&amp;P BSE SENSEX is our top country-specific EM index recommendation, overweight India. We also provide an update on Brazil’s Bovespa, which has surged over the last month following a steep selloff. We are skeptical that the index will be able to continue its unabated advance.  Today’s report also includes a wide variety of bottom-up recommendations spanning most sectors and all market capitalizations.

EM Strategy: MSCI EM Approaching Resistance; India Breaking Out to New Highs -- Add Exposure

Managing Director, MTS Research

Peter Beuttell

Managing Director

MTS Research

MTS Research Limited is an independent investment research company specialising in technical analysis. 

MTS Research provides technical analysis services in the form of regular publications and consultancy advice, catering for a number of different investment approaches from absolute or relative returns to long-only and long/short.  The company has a global client base of blue-chip financial institutions ranging in size and stretching from Los Angeles to Tokyo, via New York, London, Frankfurt and Hong Kong.  

MTS was founded in 1989 at the request of Morgan Grenfell Investment Services Limited (MGIS), the ERISA arm of Morgan Grenfell Asset Management (subsequently Deutsche Asset Management), by Peter Beuttell, a Portfolio Manager at MGIS between 1987 and 1989. 

Peter is a qualified Chartered Accountant and self-taught market technician with over 30 years experience.  At MGIS, Peter managed money in European, Australasian and Far East markets for US clients, such as American Airlines and American Petrofina.  He achieved first quartile perfomance on their behalf by blending fundamental and technical analysis in his investment decision-making.  

After an initial focus on the EAFE markets (Europe, Australasia and Far East), the company has recently expanded its coverage to include the Americas, thanks to the recently-completed two-year Knowledge Transfer Partnership with the University of Plymouth.  The resulting software – the Technical Overlay Program (TOP) – allows fund managers to access an immediate Technical view on any market, sector, stock, bond yield, currency or commodity within their selected universe.

MTS Research consists of a team of five based in Penzance and London. 

The right configuration for some sort of a Crash is in place, so the answer is “much higher than normal”.  This is not a forecast as such, because real Crashes are rare and these set-ups can appear without the worst happening.  However, the bull market wave patterns which began pre-2010 are ending; some US and (many?) global indices have probably already rolled over into bear markets.  If we have indeed correctly read the patterns, it won’t be like 1987, more like Q3 1937, or perhaps Summer 2002 - a persistent decline of about 20% from June’s highs to below SPX 2,250 - although that may not be the full extent of the bear market.  So this is really more of an alert to think about what you would do if you find prices sliding through support you thought would hold.

The right configuration for some sort of a Crash is in place, so the answer is “much higher than normal”.  This is not a forecast as such, because real Crashes are rare and these set-ups can appear without the worst happening.  However, the bull market wave patterns which began pre-2010 are ending; some US and (many?) global indices have probably already rolled over into bear markets.  If we have indeed correctly read the patterns, it won’t be like 1987, more like Q3 1937, or perhaps Summer 2002 - a persistent decline of about 20% from June’s highs to below SPX 2,250 - although that may not be the full extent of the bear market.  So this is really more of an alert to think about what you would do if you find prices sliding through support you thought would hold.

China

The MSCI Em (Emerging Markets) Index is a free-float weighted equity index that captures large and mid cap representation across Emerging Markets (EM) countries. The index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.

MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MXEF INDEX)

EM Strategy: Russia and Thailand Bullishly Inflecting; Pullback Opportunity in India

This report highlights actionable themes across the EM universe, including: bullish inflections in the Russian and Thai markets, and a pullback...

Vermilion Research

Rouble Plunges Again Despite Efforts to Contain the Rout. What Is Required to Contain EM Sell-Off?

Russian PM Medvedev is no President Erdogan and has not previously sought to influence central bank policy. Nevertheless, on Thursday 6 September,...

Tatiana Orlova

EM Strategy: Remain Overweight India

In this report we provide a synopsis of EM markets. We also scour the EM universe for attractive and actionable opportunities, highlighting...

Vermilion Research

EM Strategy: MSCI EM Approaching Resistance; India Breaking Out to New Highs -- Add Exposure

The MSCI EM index has recovered over the last couple of weeks and is now approaching a logical resistance level. We reiterate: avoid broad EM...

Vermilion Research

S&P 500: What Are the Odds of a Crash?

The right configuration for some sort of a Crash is in place, so the answer is “much higher than normal”. This is not a forecast as such, because...

Peter Beuttell