Chief Economist

Diana Choyleva

Enodo Economics

Enodo Economics is an independent macroeconomic forecasting company that untangles complexity, challenges the consensus, and makes sense of the future. Our focus is on China – one of the most misunderstood economies in the world, but one of the most important to figure out.  Enodo’s chief economist, Diana Choyleva, has been analysing China for almost 20 years, while Enodo’s team boasts a combined 140 years’ experience covering China’s economy, politics and markets. 

Macroeconomics

<h2>China News That Matters</h2><ul>
<li>Stock market sell-off intensifies</li>
<li>Foreign investment encouraged in market shake-up</li>
<li>China to lead in 5G development</li>
<li>New measures to tackle house price inflation</li>
<li>More global trade woes</li>
<li>People’s Bank of China eases</li>
<li>China and the EU talk investment and trade</li>
</ul><div class="content-remarks"><p>In my weekly digest China News That Matters, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and highlight why I think the news is significant. These posts are meant to neither be bullish nor bearish, but help you separate the signal from the noise.</p></div>

China News That Matters
Stock market sell-off intensifies
Foreign investment encouraged in market shake-up
China to lead in 5G development
New measures to tackle house price inflation
More global trade woes
People’s Bank of China eases
China and the EU talk investment and trade
In my weekly digest China News That Matters, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and highlight why I think the news is significant. These posts are meant to neither be bullish nor bearish, but help you separate the signal from the noise.

China’s Financial Risks/Deleveraging/Technology Race/Housing Crackdown/Trade War/EU Talks/RRR Cut

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

<p>Global markets have deteriorated considerably over the past couple weeks. The MSCI EM index has decisively broken down below the 60,000 major support level we identified as support, and the MSCI ACWI ETF has broken below its 200-day MA, leading us to believe additional consolidation is likely. </p>

Global markets have deteriorated considerably over the past couple weeks. The MSCI EM index has decisively broken down below the 60,000 major support level we identified as support, and the MSCI ACWI ETF has broken below its 200-day MA, leading us to believe additional consolidation is likely. 

EM and ACWI Showing Decisive Breakdowns - Metals & Miners Still Attractive

<p>In our June International Strategy, we explore the following themes in detail:</p><ul><li> Early-stage MSCI ACWI uptrend combined with constructive breadth indicators helps support our increasingly bullish outlook.</li><li>Cyclical and growth Sectors are leadership. Within Consumer Discretionary we highlight Restaurants, and within Technology we highlight Semiconductors.</li><li>Within International Developed, overweight small-caps, Japan, and Norway.</li><li>Broad Emerging Market relative strength is deteriorating. Be selective.</li></ul>

In our June International Strategy, we explore the following themes in detail: Early-stage MSCI ACWI uptrend combined with constructive breadth indicators helps support our increasingly bullish outlook.Cyclical and growth Sectors are leadership. Within Consumer Discretionary we highlight Restaurants, and within Technology we highlight Semiconductors.Within International Developed, overweight small-caps, Japan, and Norway.Broad Emerging Market relative strength is deteriorating. Be selective.

Global Equity Strategy: ACWI and EM Testing Support

<p>Over the past several weeks we have outlined the case for our increasingly bullish outlook, noting that market internals remain favorable and S&amp;P 500 and MSCI ACWI price trends are showing evidence of early-stage uptrend formations. In today’s report we provide an overview of international markets and highlight our top recommendations.</p>

Over the past several weeks we have outlined the case for our increasingly bullish outlook, noting that market internals remain favorable and S&amp;P 500 and MSCI ACWI price trends are showing evidence of early-stage uptrend formations. In today’s report we provide an overview of international markets and highlight our top recommendations.

Chief Economist, Aletheia Capital

Dr. Jim Walker

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

<p>The chattering classes have two new themes, higher interest rates and quantitative tapering. The former, it is argued, is what is causing market angst and volatility. The latter, it is claimed, will deny emerging markets and others of the dollars they so desperately require to keep the wheels on the tracks. Combined, the higher rates and dollar shortage will cause global slowing and emerging market currency volatility. Recognise the narrative?</p><p>Does any of it make any sense? No. For sure, we are in a period of market instability - hardly surprising after so many years of smooth sailing - but are we in market, growth and currency meltdown mode? Not at all.</p>

The chattering classes have two new themes, higher interest rates and quantitative tapering. The former, it is argued, is what is causing market angst and volatility. The latter, it is claimed, will deny emerging markets and others of the dollars they so desperately require to keep the wheels on the tracks. Combined, the higher rates and dollar shortage will cause global slowing and emerging market currency volatility. Recognise the narrative?Does any of it make any sense? No. For sure, we are in a period of market instability - hardly surprising after so many years of smooth sailing - but are we in market, growth and currency meltdown mode? Not at all.

China

The MSCI Em (Emerging Markets) Index is a free-float weighted equity index that captures large and mid cap representation across Emerging Markets (EM) countries. The index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.

MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MXEF INDEX)

China’s Financial Risks/Deleveraging/Technology Race/Housing Crackdown/Trade War/EU Talks/RRR Cut

China News That Matters Stock market sell-off intensifies Foreign investment encouraged in market shake-up China to lead in 5G development New...

Diana Choyleva

EM and ACWI Showing Decisive Breakdowns - Metals & Miners Still Attractive

Global markets have deteriorated considerably over the past couple weeks. The MSCI EM index has decisively broken down below the 60,000 major...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: ACWI and EM Testing Support

In our June International Strategy, we explore the following themes in detail: Early-stage MSCI ACWI uptrend combined with constructive breadth...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Markets Overview

Over the past several weeks we have outlined the case for our increasingly bullish outlook, noting that market internals remain favorable and...

Vermilion Research

Dollar Shortage? Only for the Foolish

The chattering classes have two new themes, higher interest rates and quantitative tapering. The former, it is argued, is what is causing market...

Dr. Jim Walker