Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Chinese Local Government Financing Vehicles, representing roughly 50% of the total Chinese government debt, face a maturity wall of CNY 5.5 trillion this year.</li>
<li>We expect no official defaults, implying an ongoing accommodative stance of the PBoC, further diverging from monetary policy in the rest of the world.</li>
<li>A ‘kick the can down the road’ strategy, keeping insolvent LGFVs artificially alive results in misallocation of capital, lower GDP growth, lower inflation, and pressure on risk assets.</li>
</ul>


Chinese Local Government Financing Vehicles, representing roughly 50% of the total Chinese government debt, face a maturity wall of CNY 5.5 trillion this year.
We expect no official defaults, implying an ongoing accommodative stance of the PBoC, further diverging from monetary policy in the rest of the world.
A ‘kick the can down the road’ strategy, keeping insolvent LGFVs artificially alive results in misallocation of capital, lower GDP growth, lower inflation, and pressure on risk assets.


Chinese LGFVs Contribute to Lower Growth and Disinflation

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Fed Liquidity is trending higher through a 'Stealth' QE, despite latest dip in weekly numbers</li>
<li>Liquidity is the key ingredient driving asset markets higher it pays investors to closely monitor these vital inflow of funds</li>
<li>Fed Liquidity feeds into Global Liquidity, which includes the actions of other policy-makers, as well as the activities of private back and lenders. It has risen sizeably since late 2022</li>
</ul>


Fed Liquidity is trending higher through a 'Stealth' QE, despite latest dip in weekly numbers
Liquidity is the key ingredient driving asset markets higher it pays investors to closely monitor these vital inflow of funds
Fed Liquidity feeds into Global Liquidity, which includes the actions of other policy-makers, as well as the activities of private back and lenders. It has risen sizeably since late 2022


‘Stealth QE’ Continues At The Fed ... Probably

<ul>
<li>That Bank of England had to increase the pace of interest rate hikes so late in the tightening cycle is incontrovertible evidence that the central bank remains behind the curve. </li>
<li>Based on the historical relationship between consumer and producer prices, with a PPI of 1.0%, German headline inflation should be just below 2%</li>
<li>The NASDAQ Index and the US interest rates are diverging rapidly. This is not what is supposed to happen in a discounted cash flow model for growth stocks.</li>
</ul>


That Bank of England had to increase the pace of interest rate hikes so late in the tightening cycle is incontrovertible evidence that the central bank remains behind the curve. 
Based on the historical relationship between consumer and producer prices, with a PPI of 1.0%, German headline inflation should be just below 2%
The NASDAQ Index and the US interest rates are diverging rapidly. This is not what is supposed to happen in a discounted cash flow model for growth stocks.


The Weekly Market Monitor – Another Hawkish Twist

<ul>
<li>The valuation of Global and US Tech stocks is at extreme levels and are, by some metrics, more expansive than during the height of the Dot Com Bubble.</li>
<li>Earnings and sales growth are remarkably comparable to 1998 - April 2000, and investors are extrapolating these growth numbers too far.</li>
<li>On the other hand, the price performance of technology stocks does not resemble the rapid ascent witnessed during the Dot Com period at all. Yet, the downside risks are substantial.</li>
</ul>


The valuation of Global and US Tech stocks is at extreme levels and are, by some metrics, more expansive than during the height of the Dot Com Bubble.
Earnings and sales growth are remarkably comparable to 1998 - April 2000, and investors are extrapolating these growth numbers too far.
On the other hand, the price performance of technology stocks does not resemble the rapid ascent witnessed during the Dot Com period at all. Yet, the downside risks are substantial.


Is This a Valuation Bubble? Comparing the Dot-Com Boom to the AI Hype

<ul>
<li>Our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index hit Frenzy for the first time during this rally.</li>
<li>We marginally lower the weight of Developed Market Equities since we are already underweight risky assets, which, unlike 2022, has not paid off this year.</li>
<li>In addition, we close our inflation-linked bond and Yen trade.</li>
</ul>


Our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index hit Frenzy for the first time during this rally.
We marginally lower the weight of Developed Market Equities since we are already underweight risky assets, which, unlike 2022, has not paid off this year.
In addition, we close our inflation-linked bond and Yen trade.


Changes in Portfolio Weights: Sentiment Hits ‘Frenzy,’ We Comply

United States

The MSCI World Index is a free-float weighted equity index. It was developed with a base value of 100 as of December 31, 1969. MXWO includes developed world markets, and does not include emerging markets. MXWD includes both emerging and developed markets.

MSCI World Index (MXWO INDEX)

Chinese LGFVs Contribute to Lower Growth and Disinflation

The debt issues at Chinese Local Government Financing Vehicles lead to a misallocation of capital, lower growth, disinflation, and pressure on risk...

Jeroen Blokland

‘Stealth QE’ Continues At The Fed ... Probably

Global Liquidity is being fuelled by a US-led 'Stealth' QE. Liquidity is the key ingredient driving asset markets higher it pays investors to...

Michael J. Howell

The Weekly Market Monitor – Another Hawkish Twist

The Bank of England confirms central banks and more monetary tightening is coming. Will investors shy away from (very) expensive equities and look...

Jeroen Blokland

Is This a Valuation Bubble? Comparing the Dot-Com Boom to the AI Hype

Current market valuation is not as extreme as during the Dot Com Bubble. Yet, many metrics reveal that Technology stocks are once again very...

Jeroen Blokland

Changes in Portfolio Weights: Sentiment Hits ‘Frenzy,’ We Comply

Our Fear & Frenzy Sentiment Index hit Frenzy for the first time during this rally, telling us to lower the weight of equities.

Jeroen Blokland