Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Monday market dynamics suggest more liquidity is needed to limit contagion risks.</li>
<li>5% is the magic level at which things start to break. The Fed needs time to make things whole again before resuming rate hikes.</li>
<li>Recent events will profoundly impact consumer and business confidence and increase the odds of a recession. Just watch oil!</li>
</ul>


Monday market dynamics suggest more liquidity is needed to limit contagion risks.
5% is the magic level at which things start to break. The Fed needs time to make things whole again before resuming rate hikes.
Recent events will profoundly impact consumer and business confidence and increase the odds of a recession. Just watch oil!


Monetary Policy Update! Federal Reserve Unlikely to Hike Rates in March

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


<ul>
<li>
 QT is effectively dead. We have believed this since the US gilt crisis in 2022, but the SVB issue now confirms it. Game over. QE is back
</li>
<li>2023 will still be volatile. The major markets will range trade, but unlike 2022, investors will enjoy large absolute gains in areas like commodities, EM and cyclicals</li>
<li>Other Central Banks will follow the US Fed. The US Fed is de facto following a bifurcated monetary policy: high rates for inflation and the Fed B/S for financial stability 
</li>
</ul>



 QT is effectively dead. We have believed this since the US gilt crisis in 2022, but the SVB issue now confirms it. Game over. QE is back

2023 will still be volatile. The major markets will range trade, but unlike 2022, investors will enjoy large absolute gains in areas like commodities, EM and cyclicals
Other Central Banks will follow the US Fed. The US Fed is de facto following a bifurcated monetary policy: high rates for inflation and the Fed B/S for financial stability 



The Fed & Global Liquidity After SVB: Climate Change!

<ul>
<li>How to Invest in 2023 and 2024 based on the evolving cycle of Global Liquidity, which likely bottomed in October 2022 and is now rising again</li>
<li>
QT is effectively dead. Major stock and bond markets may range in 2023, but certain areas, like cyclical, commodities and EM, will show strong gains</li>
<li>Three major changes are driving Global Liquidity higher: Fed stops QT, PBoC eases liquidity aggressively and collateral supply improves as bond volatility drops. MOVE index important</li>
</ul>


How to Invest in 2023 and 2024 based on the evolving cycle of Global Liquidity, which likely bottomed in October 2022 and is now rising again

QT is effectively dead. Major stock and bond markets may range in 2023, but certain areas, like cyclical, commodities and EM, will show strong gains
Three major changes are driving Global Liquidity higher: Fed stops QT, PBoC eases liquidity aggressively and collateral supply improves as bond volatility drops. MOVE index important


Global Liquidity & Asset Allocation in 2023: Is QT Dead?

<ul>
<li>
 China’s PBoC injected a whopping RMB 3 trillion (US$450 billion) into money markets through December and January</li>
<li>Latest data show sharp fall-off in Chinese liquidity from late-February. Nonetheless, it is hard to extrapolate much from this. 2023 still looks to be a year of much more liquidity</li>
<li>The close connection between the PBoC and Chinese business points to a stronger Chinese and World economy in the second half of 2023. Buy cyclicals? 
</li>
</ul>



 China’s PBoC injected a whopping RMB 3 trillion (US$450 billion) into money markets through December and January
Latest data show sharp fall-off in Chinese liquidity from late-February. Nonetheless, it is hard to extrapolate much from this. 2023 still looks to be a year of much more liquidity
The close connection between the PBoC and Chinese business points to a stronger Chinese and World economy in the second half of 2023. Buy cyclicals? 



Global Liquidity – Is China Squeezing Or Easing Liquidity Again?

<ul>
<li>
 Global Liquidity is projected to rise in 2023 after last year’s tumble, but after its recent surge are we seeing a material pull-back?</li>
<li>UK gilt crisis in September was a wake-up call. In the 23 following weeks, US Fed liquidity has flat-lined not fallen. US monetary policy is bifurcating 
</li>
<li>Deteriorating US fiscal position will place huge demands for more QE. Between now and 2023 the Fed balance sheet could double in size. QT is dead in America
</li>
</ul>



 Global Liquidity is projected to rise in 2023 after last year’s tumble, but after its recent surge are we seeing a material pull-back?
UK gilt crisis in September was a wake-up call. In the 23 following weeks, US Fed liquidity has flat-lined not fallen. US monetary policy is bifurcating 

Deteriorating US fiscal position will place huge demands for more QE. Between now and 2023 the Fed balance sheet could double in size. QT is dead in America



Global Liquidity Update – Is US Fed QT Dead?

United States

The MSCI World Index is a free-float weighted equity index. It was developed with a base value of 100 as of December 31, 1969. MXWO includes developed world markets, and does not include emerging markets. MXWD includes both emerging and developed markets.

MSCI World Index (MXWO INDEX)

Monetary Policy Update! Federal Reserve Unlikely to Hike Rates in March

Elevated contagion risks, ongoing liquidity needs, and lack of trust likely force the Fed to pause, not end hiking rates.

Jeroen Blokland

The Fed & Global Liquidity After SVB: Climate Change!

Global Liquidity has bottomed and is likely to rise through 2023. Silicon Valley Bank makes this more certain. QT is effectively dead: QE is back

Michael J. Howell

Global Liquidity & Asset Allocation in 2023: Is QT Dead?

Summary of recent CrossBorderCapital Webinar on Global Liquidity evidencing major inflection of liquidity cycle, spurred by PBoC ease, end of Fed...

Michael J. Howell

Global Liquidity – Is China Squeezing Or Easing Liquidity Again?

China’s PBoC injected a whopping RMB3tr into money markets in December and January. Close connection between liquidity and business points to a...

Michael J. Howell

Global Liquidity Update – Is US Fed QT Dead?

Between now and 2023 the Fed balance sheet could double in size. QT is effectively dead in America. Wise investors should start to prepare some...

Michael J. Howell