Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Global equities (MSCI ACWI) are decisively breaking above 1-month resistance on US-China trade war optimism, incrementally improving the technical picture. While there is some room to move higher in the near-term, we are hesitant to get too excited because several major indexes have additional hurdles to jump. We highlight important technical levels across major averages including Europe/UK (STOXX 600), Hong Kong (Hang Seng), Japan (TOPIX), and several EM countries (China, Brazil, Russia, Taiwan, and India).  Finally, we highlight attractive opportunities within the Consumer Discretionary, Heath Care and Services sectors.

Global equities (MSCI ACWI) are decisively breaking above 1-month resistance on US-China trade war optimism, incrementally improving the technical picture. While there is some room to move higher in the near-term, we are hesitant to get too excited because several major indexes have additional hurdles to jump. We highlight important technical levels across major averages including Europe/UK (STOXX 600), Hong Kong (Hang Seng), Japan (TOPIX), and several EM countries (China, Brazil, Russia, Taiwan, and India).  Finally, we highlight attractive opportunities within the Consumer Discretionary, Heath Care and Services sectors.

Emerging Market Economist, Emerginomics

Tatiana Orlova

Emerging Market Economist

Emerginomics

Cross Asset Strategy

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In recent weeks, global and local political developments retained their role as a leading cause of market jitters. The markets whipsawed through August, following the twists and turns in the US-China trade saga. The seasonal shortage of liquidity probably exacerbated the market moves. Deteriorating high-frequency economic data from the world’s leading economies are also a cause for concern, with a probability of a global recession increasing. 
In autumn, seasonal influences and more easing from leading central banks should improve market liquidity. These factors, as well as a gradual realisation that announcements by US President Donald Trump need to be taken with a grain of salt, should make the markets less sensitive to the news regarding the progress of US-China negotiations. Eventually, the markets could adopt a longer view of the US-China relations and react only to the headlines materially altering it. 
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In recent weeks, global and local political developments retained their role as a leading cause of market jitters. The markets whipsawed through August, following the twists and turns in the US-China trade saga. The seasonal shortage of liquidity probably exacerbated the market moves. Deteriorating high-frequency economic data from the world’s leading economies are also a cause for concern, with a probability of a global recession increasing. 
In autumn, seasonal influences and more easing from leading central banks should improve market liquidity. These factors, as well as a gradual realisation that announcements by US President Donald Trump need to be taken with a grain of salt, should make the markets less sensitive to the news regarding the progress of US-China negotiations. Eventually, the markets could adopt a longer view of the US-China relations and react only to the headlines materially altering it. 


Geopolitical Comment: Time to Stop Following Trump's Vacillations and Focus on Longer View Instead

Deterioration for ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM, continued bearish-leaning indicators, and the downward trajectory of bond yields leads us to remain cautious and concerned that global equities remain vulnerable and could be poised for additional weakness moving forward. Major indexes around the world continue to do next to nothing, making Sector, Group, and stock selection all the more important. We prefer to use a barbell strategy of growth and safety. Attractive and actionable themes highlighted in today’s report include IT Services/Tech Software, Communications, Precious Metals, and Utilities.

Deterioration for ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM, continued bearish-leaning indicators, and the downward trajectory of bond yields leads us to remain cautious and concerned that global equities remain vulnerable and could be poised for additional weakness moving forward. Major indexes around the world continue to do next to nothing, making Sector, Group, and stock selection all the more important. We prefer to use a barbell strategy of growth and safety. Attractive and actionable themes highlighted in today’s report include IT Services/Tech Software, Communications, Precious Metals, and Utilities.

Global Equity Strategy: Stay on the Defensive

We remain cautious as the number of bearish-leaning developments continue to pile up. As a result we continue to believe global equities are vulnerable to a breakdown. We recap important technical levels across markets and highlight Actionable Themes within Services, Consumer Staples, and Health Care. We also highlight attractive set ups in H&amp;M Hennes &amp; Mauritz AB Class B (HM.B-SE).

We remain cautious as the number of bearish-leaning developments continue to pile up. As a result we continue to believe global equities are vulnerable to a breakdown. We recap important technical levels across markets and highlight Actionable Themes within Services, Consumer Staples, and Health Care. We also highlight attractive set ups in H&amp;M Hennes &amp; Mauritz AB Class B (HM.B-SE).

Global Equity Strategy: Bearish-Leaning Developments Continue; Europe/UK Holding Above Support.

Heightened trade tensions have caused global equities to move from resistance to support in a matter of days. Additional consolidation - i.e., no breakdowns - on the broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) remains the most likely scenario. At the same time, new cracks are beginning to show and as a result we believe global equities are vulnerable to a breakdown.  Along with a recap of important technical levels across major markets, we flip through several attractive Groups and stocks within Advertising, retail, restaurants, and travel, which offer attractive pullback opportunities.

Heightened trade tensions have caused global equities to move from resistance to support in a matter of days. Additional consolidation - i.e., no breakdowns - on the broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) remains the most likely scenario. At the same time, new cracks are beginning to show and as a result we believe global equities are vulnerable to a breakdown.  Along with a recap of important technical levels across major markets, we flip through several attractive Groups and stocks within Advertising, retail, restaurants, and travel, which offer attractive pullback opportunities.

Global Equity Strategy: Another Test of Support

United States

The MSCI World Index is a free-float weighted equity index. It was developed with a base value of 100 as of December 31, 1969. MXWO includes developed world markets, and does not include emerging markets. MXWD includes both emerging and developed markets.

MSCI World Index (MXWO INDEX)

Global Equity Strategy: Guarded Optimism

Global equities (MSCI ACWI) are decisively breaking above 1-month resistance on US-China trade war optimism, incrementally improving the technical...

Vermilion Research

Geopolitical Comment: Time to Stop Following Trump's Vacillations and Focus on Longer View Instead

In recent weeks, global and local political developments retained their role as a leading cause of market jitters. The markets whipsawed through...

Tatiana Orlova

Global Equity Strategy: Stay on the Defensive

Deterioration for ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM, continued bearish-leaning indicators, and the downward trajectory of bond yields leads us to remain...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Bearish-Leaning Developments Continue; Europe/UK Holding Above Support.

We remain cautious as the number of bearish-leaning developments continue to pile up. As a result we continue to believe global equities are...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Another Test of Support

Heightened trade tensions have caused global equities to move from resistance to support in a matter of days. Additional consolidation - i.e., no...

Vermilion Research