Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Macroeconomics

Latest May PMI data highlights a growth hiccup. This has been worryingly foreshadowed over the past six months by skidding levels of Global Liquidity, according to the monthly CrossBorder CapitalGLI series. The chart below shows the recent trends. Flagging Global Liquidity, itself weighed down by Central Bank's 'reverse QE' and dented by sharp drops in cross-border capital flows, point to upcoming economic weakness. Projecting the PMI forwards using the GLI warns that the World economy could…

Latest May PMI data highlights a growth hiccup. This has been worryingly foreshadowed over the past six months by skidding levels of Global Liquidity, according to the monthly CrossBorder CapitalGLI series. The chart below shows the recent trends. Flagging Global Liquidity, itself weighed down by Central Bank's 'reverse QE' and dented by sharp drops in cross-border capital flows, point to upcoming economic weakness. Projecting the PMI forwards using the GLI warns that the World economy could…

Not great news? Two recent sets of data ought to makes investors re-assess risks: (1) the CrossBorder Capital weekly track of major Central Bank QE policies (this includes China and EM) shows the weakest print for four years [see chart 1], and (2) Now-Casting Economics'proprietary tracking of the China economy shows a sharp skid in Q2 activity rates [see chart 2].<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/050/752/original/weeklyG4.JPG?1524745895" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="50752"></figure>With investors' risk appetite still high (albeit not as excessive as it was) and the US dollar finally showing some firmness again…

Not great news? Two recent sets of data ought to makes investors re-assess risks: (1) the CrossBorder Capital weekly track of major Central Bank QE policies (this includes China and EM) shows the weakest print for four years [see chart 1], and (2) Now-Casting Economics'proprietary tracking of the China economy shows a sharp skid in Q2 activity rates [see chart 2].With investors' risk appetite still high (albeit not as excessive as it was) and the US dollar finally showing some firmness again…

Agghhh.. Tighter Central Banks, Wobbly China!

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Corrective action is spreading throughout most major indexes, and many are currently testing critical support levels. With market internals still mixed, we continue to believe that further consolidation and volatility is the most likely scenario. In today’s report we provide an overview of global markets and highlight our top recommendations.

Corrective action is spreading throughout most major indexes, and many are currently testing critical support levels. With market internals still mixed, we continue to believe that further consolidation and volatility is the most likely scenario. In today’s report we provide an overview of global markets and highlight our top recommendations.

At CrossBorder Capital, we use cross-country data and machine-learning techniques to uncover three intuitive liquidity-based drivers of future financial crises – (1) cross-border capital flows; (2) investors’ risk appetite and (3) Central Bank policy. Adding these factors to a probit model warns of upcoming problems later in 2018, largely because of reversing cross-border flows out of the US dollar. Reverse QE by Central Banks is unhelpful in this context, but it is unlikely by itself to trigger…

At CrossBorder Capital, we use cross-country data and machine-learning techniques to uncover three intuitive liquidity-based drivers of future financial crises – (1) cross-border capital flows; (2) investors’ risk appetite and (3) Central Bank policy. Adding these factors to a probit model warns of upcoming problems later in 2018, largely because of reversing cross-border flows out of the US dollar. Reverse QE by Central Banks is unhelpful in this context, but it is unlikely by itself to trigger…

Can AI and Machine Learning Predict A 2018 Crash? Could Q2 Be The Spark?

Overwhelmingly, and to take a line from our U.S. Compass report, recent declines have corrected the excess. Where many charts appeared stretched and even parabolic in some cases, recent downward pressure on global equities has allowed many stocks to return to solid entry points near various areas of support. In today’s report we review every global sector, highlighting actionable stocks within each.

Overwhelmingly, and to take a line from our U.S. Compass report, recent declines have corrected the excess. Where many charts appeared stretched and even parabolic in some cases, recent downward pressure on global equities has allowed many stocks to return to solid entry points near various areas of support. In today’s report we review every global sector, highlighting actionable stocks within each.

United States

The MSCI World Index is a free-float weighted equity index. It was developed with a base value of 100 as of December 31, 1969. MXWO includes developed world markets, and does not include emerging markets. MXWD includes both emerging and developed markets.

MSCI World Index (MXWO INDEX)

Is The World Economy Slowing?

Latest May PMI data highlights a growth hiccup. This has been worryingly foreshadowed over the past six months by skidding levels of Global...

Michael J. Howell

Agghhh.. Tighter Central Banks, Wobbly China!

Not great news? Two recent sets of data ought to makes investors re-assess risks: (1) the CrossBorder Capital weekly track of major Central Bank QE...

Michael J. Howell

Technical Appraisal of Global Markets

Corrective action is spreading throughout most major indexes, and many are currently testing critical support levels. With market internals still...

Vermilion Research

Can AI and Machine Learning Predict A 2018 Crash? Could Q2 Be The Spark?

At CrossBorder Capital, we use cross-country data and machine-learning techniques to uncover three intuitive liquidity-based drivers of future...

Michael J. Howell

Global Equity Strategy

Overwhelmingly, and to take a line from our U.S. Compass report, recent declines have corrected the excess. Where many charts appeared stretched...

Vermilion Research