Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We maintain a Buy rating with a revised 12M fair value of Bt37.75 (from Bt41.00), based on a higher required return of 10.2% (from 9.2%), reflecting an updated equity risk premium derived from regression analysis under a new time frame and revised macro assumptions.</li><li>1Q26E earnings are expected to grow YoY, supported by continued loan portfolio expansion. Growth is driven by the title loan segment, which has the lowest average ticket size in the industry (with the highest exposure to motorcycle title loans), offering greater flexibility in debt collection.</li><li>We expect MTC to report 1Q26E net profit of Bt1.77bn (+12.7% YoY, -0.6% QoQ), with results scheduled for release on May 12, 2026.</li></ul>

We maintain a Buy rating with a revised 12M fair value of Bt37.75 (from Bt41.00), based on a higher required return of 10.2% (from 9.2%), reflecting an updated equity risk premium derived from regression analysis under a new time frame and revised macro assumptions.1Q26E earnings are expected to grow YoY, supported by continued loan portfolio expansion. Growth is driven by the title loan segment, which has the lowest average ticket size in the industry (with the highest exposure to motorcycle title loans), offering greater flexibility in debt collection.We expect MTC to report 1Q26E net profit of Bt1.77bn (+12.7% YoY, -0.6% QoQ), with results scheduled for release on May 12, 2026.

Muangthai Capital Plc. (MTC): 1Q26E Collection Trends Remain Healthy

<ul><li>We upgrade to Outperform (from Neutral) with a new 12M forward FV of Bt41.00 (from Bt39.25), based on a lower required return of 9.2% (from 10.7%) following a revised equity risk premium and updated assumptions.</li><li>The new FV implies ~9% upside, with 12M FV driven by earnings growth and the 10-year government bond yield (risk-free rate).</li><li>Tactical risk has shifted to Neutral (from Limited upside) after the share price corrected ~4% since our previous report (Feb 18, 2026).</li></ul>

We upgrade to Outperform (from Neutral) with a new 12M forward FV of Bt41.00 (from Bt39.25), based on a lower required return of 9.2% (from 10.7%) following a revised equity risk premium and updated assumptions.The new FV implies ~9% upside, with 12M FV driven by earnings growth and the 10-year government bond yield (risk-free rate).Tactical risk has shifted to Neutral (from Limited upside) after the share price corrected ~4% since our previous report (Feb 18, 2026).

MUANGTHAI CAPITAL Plc. (MTC): Solid Loan Growth; Standout Asset Quality

<ul><li>We downgrade our rating to Neutral (from Outperform) after the share price rose 18% since our last report (February 5, 2026), leaving limited near-term upside and full valuation reflected.</li><li>We maintain fair value at Bt39.25, based on a required return of 10.7%.</li><li>Results in 4Q25 met expectations, with earnings hitting a new high and rising YoY and QoQ. Double-digit loan growth in 2025 and improved asset quality (lower NPLs, higher coverage) were key highlights.</li></ul>

We downgrade our rating to Neutral (from Outperform) after the share price rose 18% since our last report (February 5, 2026), leaving limited near-term upside and full valuation reflected.We maintain fair value at Bt39.25, based on a required return of 10.7%.Results in 4Q25 met expectations, with earnings hitting a new high and rising YoY and QoQ. Double-digit loan growth in 2025 and improved asset quality (lower NPLs, higher coverage) were key highlights.

Muangthai Capital Plc. (MTC): Earnings In Line; Asset Quality Remained Strong

<ul><li>We expect 4Q25E profit to grow YoY and QoQ, supported by solid loan growth, easing funding costs, and well-controlled asset quality.</li><li>We maintain an Outperform call with a new fair value of Bt39.25 (previously Bt55.50), with a higher required return of 10.7% (from 6.5%) due to a 0.2% increase in the risk-free rate and a higher equity risk premium of 4.0% based on our adjusted macro assessment.</li><li>The stock still offers around 18% upside to the new fair value, while long-term growth remains broadly in line with the industry average (2-year CAGR of 13.2%).</li></ul>

We expect 4Q25E profit to grow YoY and QoQ, supported by solid loan growth, easing funding costs, and well-controlled asset quality.We maintain an Outperform call with a new fair value of Bt39.25 (previously Bt55.50), with a higher required return of 10.7% (from 6.5%) due to a 0.2% increase in the risk-free rate and a higher equity risk premium of 4.0% based on our adjusted macro assessment.The stock still offers around 18% upside to the new fair value, while long-term growth remains broadly in line with the industry average (2-year CAGR of 13.2%).

Muangthai Capital Plc. (MTC): 4Q25E Profit To Grow YoY And QoQ

<ul><li>MTC posted 3Q25 net profit of Bt1.73bn (+16% YoY, +5% QoQ), in line with expectations.</li><li>PPOP rose solidly (+8% YoY, +7% QoQ), supported by strong loan portfolio expansion.</li><li>Asset quality remained manageable with stable Stage 2 and Stage 3 (NPL) ratios.</li></ul>

MTC posted 3Q25 net profit of Bt1.73bn (+16% YoY, +5% QoQ), in line with expectations.PPOP rose solidly (+8% YoY, +7% QoQ), supported by strong loan portfolio expansion.Asset quality remained manageable with stable Stage 2 and Stage 3 (NPL) ratios.

MUANGTHAI CAPITAL Plc. (MTC): 3Q25 Profit In Line; Up YoY and QoQ

Thailand

Muangthai Capital Public Company Limited is a leading non-bank financial institution in Thailand, primarily offering vehicle title loans, land title loans, personal loans, and nano-finance to retail customers. The company also provides motorcycle hire purchase and insurance brokerage services. It was founded on May 22, 1992, and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.

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Muangthai Capital (MTC TB)

Muangthai Capital Plc. (MTC): 1Q26E Collection Trends Remain Healthy

We expect MTC to report 1Q26E net profit of Bt1.77bn (+12.7% YoY, -0.6% QoQ), with results scheduled for release on May 12, 2026.

Krungthai XSpring

MUANGTHAI CAPITAL Plc. (MTC): Solid Loan Growth; Standout Asset Quality

The new FV implies ~9% upside, with 12M FV driven by earnings growth and the 10-year government bond yield (risk-free rate).

Krungthai XSpring

Muangthai Capital Plc. (MTC): Earnings In Line; Asset Quality Remained Strong

We downgrade our rating to Neutral (from Outperform) after the share price rose 18% since our last report (February 5, 2026), leaving limited near...

Krungthai XSpring

Muangthai Capital Plc. (MTC): 4Q25E Profit To Grow YoY And QoQ

We expect 4Q25E profit to grow YoY and QoQ, supported by solid loan growth, easing funding costs, and well-controlled asset quality.

Krungthai XSpring

MUANGTHAI CAPITAL Plc. (MTC): 3Q25 Profit In Line; Up YoY and QoQ

MTC posted 3Q25 net profit of Bt1.73bn (+16% YoY, +5% QoQ), in line with expectations. PPOP rose solidly (+8% YoY, +7% QoQ), supported by strong...

Krungthai XSpring

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