Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $119-$121.</li>
<li>$125-$126 and $123-$123.50 are short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US; we will maintain our near-term bullish outlook as long as $123 support holds.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $119-$121.
$125-$126 and $123-$123.50 are short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US; we will maintain our near-term bullish outlook as long as $123 support holds.


China and Japan Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Remains Weak

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders  / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We forecast 10 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 11 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 10 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 13 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.</li>
<li>From the new listings, 1 stock is expected to be added to Large cap, 2 stocks are expected to be added to Mid Cap, and multiple stocks to Small Cap.</li>
<li>There are multiple stocks among the AMFI changes that will be changes for global indices, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Next 50 Index</a> and/or Nifty Midcap 150 Index in September.</li>
</ul>


We forecast 10 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 11 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 10 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 13 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.
From the new listings, 1 stock is expected to be added to Large cap, 2 stocks are expected to be added to Mid Cap, and multiple stocks to Small Cap.
There are multiple stocks among the AMFI changes that will be changes for global indices, NIFTY Index, NSE Nifty Next 50 Index and/or Nifty Midcap 150 Index in September.


AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Jun 2025): Active Flows Lead to Passive Flows

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>MCX is expected to report a revenue decline of 1.1% QoQ, led by a drop in options volume by ~6.1%, offset by 10% QoQ increase in futures volume</li><li>We expect SGF to come down by ~50% as MCX has been providing voluntary contribution over the last three quarters</li><li>We expect MCX to post a Revenue/PAT of INR 2.98/1.66bn in Q4, -1.1/+3.8% QoQ.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

MCX is expected to report a revenue decline of 1.1% QoQ, led by a drop in options volume by ~6.1%, offset by 10% QoQ increase in futures volumeWe expect SGF to come down by ~50% as MCX has been providing voluntary contribution over the last three quartersWe expect MCX to post a Revenue/PAT of INR 2.98/1.66bn in Q4, -1.1/+3.8% QoQ.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Exchanges, Staffing and Internet (Q4FY25E Results Preview): Softness persists

<ul><li>ICICI Prudential Life: ICICI Prudential Life (IPRU) clocked strong APE growth (+27% YoY) slightly above our estimates, while the VNB growth was modest (+9% YoY) and below our estimates for 9MFY25</li><li>The VNB margins further witnessed steep collapse to 22.8% (-390bps YoY) on the back of a ULIP-heavy mix</li><li>We believe that IPRU’s re-engineered business strategy, which prioritises headline growth over product mix, will drive the growth trajectory of the VNB with muted expansion in VNB/APE margins going forward</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ICICI Prudential Life: ICICI Prudential Life (IPRU) clocked strong APE growth (+27% YoY) slightly above our estimates, while the VNB growth was modest (+9% YoY) and below our estimates for 9MFY25The VNB margins further witnessed steep collapse to 22.8% (-390bps YoY) on the back of a ULIP-heavy mixWe believe that IPRU’s re-engineered business strategy, which prioritises headline growth over product mix, will drive the growth trajectory of the VNB with muted expansion in VNB/APE margins going forwardContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: ICICI Prudential Life, Oberoi Realty, Multi Commodity Exchange

<ul><li>MCX: MCX is expected to report revenue growth of +3/54% QoQ/YoY, led by growth in options revenue (+6% QoQ) offset by pricing reset as per true to label circular</li><li>The profitability will be muted as the AMC cost for CDP will be applicable from Q3FY25</li><li>We expect MCX to post an EBITDA/PAT of INR 2.01/1.56bn, up +2.0/1.6% QoQ</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

MCX: MCX is expected to report revenue growth of +3/54% QoQ/YoY, led by growth in options revenue (+6% QoQ) offset by pricing reset as per true to label circularThe profitability will be muted as the AMC cost for CDP will be applicable from Q3FY25We expect MCX to post an EBITDA/PAT of INR 2.01/1.56bn, up +2.0/1.6% QoQContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Exchanges, Staffing and Internet (Q3FY25E Results Preview): Growth moderating

India

Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited is an independent and de-mutualized exchange.  The Exchange has permanent recognition from the Government of India for facilitating online trading, clearing, and settlement operations for commodity futures markets across the country.

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Multi Commodity Exchange India (MCX IN)

China and Japan Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Remains Weak

China's Shanghai Composite and Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact on global equities $ACWI; U.S....

Vermilion Research

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Jun 2025): Active Flows Lead to Passive Flows

We currently forecast 44 migrations for the AMFI July reclassification. Some IPOs could be added to Large/Mid cap. The forecast upward migrations...

Brian Freitas

Exchanges, Staffing and Internet (Q4FY25E Results Preview): Softness persists

MCX is expected to report a revenue decline of 1.1% QoQ, led by a drop in options volume by ~6.1%, offset by 10% QoQ increase in futures volume

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: ICICI Prudential Life, Oberoi Realty, Multi Commodity Exchange

ICICI Prudential Life (IPRU) clocked strong APE growth (+27% YoY) slightly above our estimates, while the VNB growth was modest (+9% YoY) and below...

HDFC Securities

Exchanges, Staffing and Internet (Q3FY25E Results Preview): Growth moderating

MCX is expected to report revenue growth of +3/54% QoQ/YoY, led by growth in options revenue (+6% QoQ) offset by pricing reset as per true to label...

HDFC Securities

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