Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 181 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 69.4% as of Mar 27th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 0.4ppt week-on-week, led by industrials, utilities, energy and offset by real estate, communication services, information technology.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Hans Cnc, Air China, CATL, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, Cgn Power, ABC.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 181 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 69.4% as of Mar 27th.
The average A-H premium changed by 0.4ppt week-on-week, led by industrials, utilities, energy and offset by real estate, communication services, information technology.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Hans Cnc, Air China, CATL, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, Cgn Power, ABC.


A-H Premium Weekly (Mar 27th): Hans Cnc, Air China, CATL, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, Cgn Power

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 179 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 69.0% as of Mar 20th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -1.2ppt week-on-week, led by industrials, financials, energy and offset by materials, real estate.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for CATL, China Longyuan Power, Yankuang Energy, Shenzhen Woer Heat, CIMC, Anhui Conch Cement.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 179 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 69.0% as of Mar 20th.
The average A-H premium changed by -1.2ppt week-on-week, led by industrials, financials, energy and offset by materials, real estate.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for CATL, China Longyuan Power, Yankuang Energy, Shenzhen Woer Heat, CIMC, Anhui Conch Cement.


A-H Premium Weekly (Mar 20th): CATL, China Longyuan Power, Yankuang Energy, Shenzhen Woer Heat, CIMC

Event-Driven

Contemporary Amperex Technology / Event-Driven

Contemporary Amperex Technology (3750 HK)

<ul>
<li>We study 27 A+H listing connect inclusion in two groups: 23 with delayed Connect inclusion (26 to 28 days after listing) and 4 with same-day inclusion.</li>
<li>The delayed group shows H underperformance versus A around inclusion (61% win rate, median +3.5% over 5D). All four same-day stocks posted positive hedged returns on day 0.</li>
<li>Actionable trades ahead: DELTON (1989 HK) pending listing on 20 March, and ESTUN (2715 HK) pending Connect inclusion.</li>
</ul>


We study 27 A+H listing connect inclusion in two groups: 23 with delayed Connect inclusion (26 to 28 days after listing) and 4 with same-day inclusion.
The delayed group shows H underperformance versus A around inclusion (61% win rate, median +3.5% over 5D). All four same-day stocks posted positive hedged returns on day 0.
Actionable trades ahead: DELTON (1989 HK) pending listing on 20 March, and ESTUN (2715 HK) pending Connect inclusion.


A+H Listing: The Connect Inclusion Stat and the Trade

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 178 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 70.2% as of Mar 13th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 3.2ppt week-on-week, led by industrials, real estate, communication services and offset by information technology.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for CNOOC, BYD, Great Wall Motor, Crrc, CATL, Huaneng Power International.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 178 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 70.2% as of Mar 13th.
The average A-H premium changed by 3.2ppt week-on-week, led by industrials, real estate, communication services and offset by information technology.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for CNOOC, BYD, Great Wall Motor, Crrc, CATL, Huaneng Power International.


A-H Premium Weekly (Mar 13th): CNOOC, BYD, Great Wall Motor, Crrc, CATL, Huaneng Power International

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>As of end February, there have been 23 new listings on the Main Board of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a>. There will be more in March.</li>
<li>Of the 23 new listings, we forecast 7 inclusions to the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) in June. 6 of those stocks will then be added to Southbound Stock Connect.</li>
<li>As a stock with Weighted Voting Rights (WVR), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/minimax-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46185:1" rel="noopener">MiniMax Group (100 HK)</a> will need to wait till early August to be added to Southbound Stock Connect.</li>
</ul>


As of end February, there have been 23 new listings on the Main Board of the HKEX (388 HK). There will be more in March.
Of the 23 new listings, we forecast 7 inclusions to the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) in June. 6 of those stocks will then be added to Southbound Stock Connect.
As a stock with Weighted Voting Rights (WVR), MiniMax Group (100 HK) will need to wait till early August to be added to Southbound Stock Connect.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview: Semiconductor & Software Stocks Dominate Potential Adds in June

China

Muyuan Foods Co., Ltd. conducts pigs farming businesses. The Company provides pigs breeding, raising, slaughtering, processing, and other services. Muyuan Foodstuff also produces animal feed products.

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Muyuan Foods Co (2714 HK)

A-H Premium Weekly (Mar 27th): Hans Cnc, Air China, CATL, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, Cgn Power

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Hans Cnc, Air China, CATL, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (Mar 20th): CATL, China Longyuan Power, Yankuang Energy, Shenzhen Woer Heat, CIMC

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for CATL, China Longyuan Power, Yankuang Energy, Shenzhen Woer...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A+H Listing: The Connect Inclusion Stat and the Trade

A+H Connect inclusion study across 27 IPOs finds H underperformance at stabilization expiry. Two trades live: DELTON (20 Mar listing) and ESTUN...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (Mar 13th): CNOOC, BYD, Great Wall Motor, Crrc, CATL, Huaneng Power International

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for CNOOC, BYD, Great Wall Motor, Crrc, CATL, Huaneng Power...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview: Semiconductor & Software Stocks Dominate Potential Adds in June

Of the 23 stocks that have listed on the HKEX this year, 7 could be added to the HSCI at the close on 5 June, and 6 of those will be added to...

Brian Freitas

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