Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning update.</li><li>The center of attention currently is the ongoing rise in both US and UK yields, after term premia have been increasing significantly over the past 3-4 weeks as the odds of a Trump victory have risen.</li><li>Meanwhile, the UK Autumn budget didn’t please markets, despite having some very solid content beneath the surface.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning update.The center of attention currently is the ongoing rise in both US and UK yields, after term premia have been increasing significantly over the past 3-4 weeks as the odds of a Trump victory have risen.Meanwhile, the UK Autumn budget didn’t please markets, despite having some very solid content beneath the surface.

Positioning Watch – How Is Positioning Looking Ahead of the Election?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Market sentiment continues to shift in favour of the USD, according to the latest Commitments of Traders data from the CFTC for the week through last Tuesday.</li><li>Non-Commercial (speculative) traders took a small net USD short position to a sizeable net USD long position overall, via a USD10bn swing in aggregate positioning in the major currencies we monitor for this report.</li><li>Additional data shows Leveraged (hedge fund) traders cutting their USD4bn net USD short from last week to near flat while Real Money (institutional) halved their net USD short over the week to a little less than USD9bn.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Market sentiment continues to shift in favour of the USD, according to the latest Commitments of Traders data from the CFTC for the week through last Tuesday.Non-Commercial (speculative) traders took a small net USD short position to a sizeable net USD long position overall, via a USD10bn swing in aggregate positioning in the major currencies we monitor for this report.Additional data shows Leveraged (hedge fund) traders cutting their USD4bn net USD short from last week to near flat while Real Money (institutional) halved their net USD short over the week to a little less than USD9bn.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Speculative Sentiment Turns USD Bullish

<ul><li>The US dollar (USD) has underperformed in the third quarter, reflecting a constellation of factors that have shaken up currency trading and injected renewed volatility into markets.</li><li>We had expected the USD to ease somewhat in H2 as cyclical factors turn less supportive and while USD losses have moderated somewhat in recent trading, the net impact is still a somewhat weaker USD than we had anticipated at this stage.</li><li>USD weakness can be largely explained by the following. Firstly, US yields eased in July and fell sharply in August following the release of a weaker-than-expected US July employment report. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The US dollar (USD) has underperformed in the third quarter, reflecting a constellation of factors that have shaken up currency trading and injected renewed volatility into markets.We had expected the USD to ease somewhat in H2 as cyclical factors turn less supportive and while USD losses have moderated somewhat in recent trading, the net impact is still a somewhat weaker USD than we had anticipated at this stage.USD weakness can be largely explained by the following. Firstly, US yields eased in July and fell sharply in August following the release of a weaker-than-expected US July employment report. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>Welcome to our weekly EM Watch, where we examine Emerging Markets (with a particular focus on China) through the lens of Western investors.</li><li>It’s been a rough month for anything linked to China, including industrially sensitive commodities.</li><li>According to one of the most reliable live gauges of Chinese energy demand—the Singapore Gasoil-Dubai Crude Crack Swap—we are still on a slippery slope toward weaker demand from China.</li></ul>

Welcome to our weekly EM Watch, where we examine Emerging Markets (with a particular focus on China) through the lens of Western investors.It’s been a rough month for anything linked to China, including industrially sensitive commodities.According to one of the most reliable live gauges of Chinese energy demand—the Singapore Gasoil-Dubai Crude Crack Swap—we are still on a slippery slope toward weaker demand from China.

EM Watch: The Non-Feasible Return of the EM Carry Case Amidst a Global Slowdown

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>After a tricky few days, we have started gaining substantial traction in our portfolio again over the past 1-2 trading days.</li><li>Risk assets seem to be stabilizing, with crypto leading a new bull wave, while metals are selling off right, left, and center alongside a turning tide in the USD versus Asian FX and Lat-Am FX overall.</li><li>Over the week, our biggest concern, given our current tilt in industrial metals, is that manufacturing rebounds faster than anticipated by many.</li></ul>

After a tricky few days, we have started gaining substantial traction in our portfolio again over the past 1-2 trading days.Risk assets seem to be stabilizing, with crypto leading a new bull wave, while metals are selling off right, left, and center alongside a turning tide in the USD versus Asian FX and Lat-Am FX overall.Over the week, our biggest concern, given our current tilt in industrial metals, is that manufacturing rebounds faster than anticipated by many.

Portfolio Watch: Here Comes the Metals Meltdown...

Mexico

The Mexican peso is the official currency of Mexico. 

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Positioning Watch – How Is Positioning Looking Ahead of the Election?

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning update. The center of attention currently is the ongoing rise in both US and UK yields,...

Steno Research

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Speculative Sentiment Turns USD Bullish

Market sentiment continues to shift in favour of the USD, according to the latest Commitments of Traders data from the CFTC for the week through...

Scotiabank

Monthly FX Outlook – September 2024

The US dollar (USD) has underperformed in the third quarter, reflecting a constellation of factors that have shaken up currency trading and...

Scotiabank

EM Watch: The Non-Feasible Return of the EM Carry Case Amidst a Global Slowdown

Welcome to our weekly EM Watch, where we examine Emerging Markets (with a particular focus on China) through the lens of Western investors. It’s...

Steno Research

Portfolio Watch: Here Comes the Metals Meltdown...

After a tricky few days, we have started gaining substantial traction in our portfolio again over the past 1-2 trading days.

Steno Research

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