Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, where we as usual will dive into positioning and sentiment data to provide you with the latest overview of crowded trades and where the markets are leaning.</li><li>This week we dig into how the rise of volatility (and volatility of volatility) has affected market positioning, if the recent weakness in equities has shaken around positioning (hint: it has) and the recent developments in rates pricing, where the outcome space for the DEC2024 SOFR contract has turned significantly more uniform in hawks’ favor.</li><li>The VIX recently woke up after a long period of being range-bound between 12.5 and 15, surging on the back of weakness in equities as tax payments have been due in April combined with a slightly hotter than expected CPI report and hawkish remarks from Powell.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, where we as usual will dive into positioning and sentiment data to provide you with the latest overview of crowded trades and where the markets are leaning.This week we dig into how the rise of volatility (and volatility of volatility) has affected market positioning, if the recent weakness in equities has shaken around positioning (hint: it has) and the recent developments in rates pricing, where the outcome space for the DEC2024 SOFR contract has turned significantly more uniform in hawks’ favor.The VIX recently woke up after a long period of being range-bound between 12.5 and 15, surging on the back of weakness in equities as tax payments have been due in April combined with a slightly hotter than expected CPI report and hawkish remarks from Powell.

Positioning Watch – 0 Fed cuts is almost the most favored outcome in market pricing now

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Hi everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning / sentiment overview, which will be delivered to you right as firefighters have hopefully put out the fire at the old exchange building in Copenhagen..</li><li>Markets have started the week off where they left last week, with the USD wrecking ball continuing to prevail, posing headwinds for equity and fixed income markets as Fed pricing has more or less turned upside down lately.</li><li>We generally positioned for this repricing of USD fixed income, but were caught wrongfooted in a few trades along the way admittedly.</li></ul>

Hi everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning / sentiment overview, which will be delivered to you right as firefighters have hopefully put out the fire at the old exchange building in Copenhagen..Markets have started the week off where they left last week, with the USD wrecking ball continuing to prevail, posing headwinds for equity and fixed income markets as Fed pricing has more or less turned upside down lately.We generally positioned for this repricing of USD fixed income, but were caught wrongfooted in a few trades along the way admittedly.

Positioning Watch – Volatility Is Back, but Markets Still Lean into USD Duration.. God Knows Why..

<ul><li>The below chart of ours have made the rounds in recent days and weeks as China seems to be preparing for something big given the heavy restocking efforts in Copper space.</li><li>As the price trends are diverging in copper versus steel and iron ore, the strategic initiatives of China are becoming increasingly evident in price action across the commodity complex, but we are yet to fully understand and accept the ramifications for global rates.</li><li>We have read plenty of bad takes on why China is building up copper reserves and the most obvious reason seems to be neglected by many.</li></ul>

The below chart of ours have made the rounds in recent days and weeks as China seems to be preparing for something big given the heavy restocking efforts in Copper space.As the price trends are diverging in copper versus steel and iron ore, the strategic initiatives of China are becoming increasingly evident in price action across the commodity complex, but we are yet to fully understand and accept the ramifications for global rates.We have read plenty of bad takes on why China is building up copper reserves and the most obvious reason seems to be neglected by many.

EM Watch: China is preparing something BIG!

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The USD is trading little changed against the major currencies overall.</li><li>Markets appear to have an eye on month-end and the long weekend already and movement in the core majors is very limited on the session so far.</li><li>Only a few pairs are trading more than +/- 0.1% on day at this point. Stocks are mixed to slightly firmer while Treasurys are flat. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD is trading little changed against the major currencies overall.Markets appear to have an eye on month-end and the long weekend already and movement in the core majors is very limited on the session so far.Only a few pairs are trading more than +/- 0.1% on day at this point. Stocks are mixed to slightly firmer while Treasurys are flat. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - JPY Nudges Higher After Officials Meet

<ul><li>The USD is a little softer for a second day running as it continues to edge away from recent range peaks.</li><li>Trading appears light, with markets not particularly incentivized to move the USD significantly higher, or that much lower, while monetary policy prospects remain unclear.</li><li>A slightly firmer yuan, supported by the PBoC setting another strong fixing rate, has added to pressure on the USD somewhat in broad terms. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD is a little softer for a second day running as it continues to edge away from recent range peaks.Trading appears light, with markets not particularly incentivized to move the USD significantly higher, or that much lower, while monetary policy prospects remain unclear.A slightly firmer yuan, supported by the PBoC setting another strong fixing rate, has added to pressure on the USD somewhat in broad terms. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Drifts Lower in Quiet Trade

Mexico

The Mexican peso is the official currency of Mexico. 

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MXN (USDMXN CURNCY)

Positioning Watch – 0 Fed cuts is almost the most favored outcome in market pricing now

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, where we as usual will dive into positioning and sentiment data to provide you...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – Volatility Is Back, but Markets Still Lean into USD Duration.. God Knows Why..

Hi everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning / sentiment overview, which will be delivered to you right as firefighters have hopefully...

Steno Research

EM Watch: China is preparing something BIG!

The below chart of ours have made the rounds in recent days and weeks as China seems to be preparing for something big given the heavy restocking...

Steno Research

FX Daily - JPY Nudges Higher After Officials Meet

Markets appear to have an eye on month-end and the long weekend already and movement in the core majors is very limited on the session so far.

Scotiabank

FX Daily - USD Drifts Lower in Quiet Trade

Trading appears light, with markets not particularly incentivized to move the USD significantly higher, or that much lower, while monetary policy...

Scotiabank

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