Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Happy Sunday and welcome to our weekly flagship editorial.</li><li>The soft landing narrative has seen material tailwinds over the past 6-8 weeks, while the recession narrative is fading fast.</li><li>This is the first prerequisite for an actual recession as a recession never arrives when everyone plans for one.</li></ul>

Happy Sunday and welcome to our weekly flagship editorial.The soft landing narrative has seen material tailwinds over the past 6-8 weeks, while the recession narrative is fading fast.This is the first prerequisite for an actual recession as a recession never arrives when everyone plans for one.

Steno Signals #75 – The 2007/2008 Playbook Is Useful Again

Elias Lisberg Glistrup

<ul><li>With the turn of October, it’s time for our monthly evaluation of both the present and coming month’s macroeconomic conditions, in which we weigh risks against rewards.</li><li>In order to do so, we employ both our Macro Regime Indicator framework and the interactive Structural Asset Allocation Model.</li><li>In combination, these tools provide an empirically rooted portfolio allocation, given the identified macro conditions and drivers in financial markets.</li></ul>

With the turn of October, it’s time for our monthly evaluation of both the present and coming month’s macroeconomic conditions, in which we weigh risks against rewards.In order to do so, we employ both our Macro Regime Indicator framework and the interactive Structural Asset Allocation Model.In combination, these tools provide an empirically rooted portfolio allocation, given the identified macro conditions and drivers in financial markets.

Macro Regime Indicator: Heavy Long in Cyclical FX

<ul><li>Happy Sunday and welcome to our flagship editorial! What a week.</li><li>The BoJ no longer has a firm guidance towards higher 10yr bond yields, the Fed accepted higher long bond yields as an excuse to pause and economic data has been abysmal.</li><li>That cocktail has so far allowed the everything rally to thrive in a way we haven’t seen in quarters, but the feedback loop introduced by the big central banks may limit the scope of the bear market rally.</li></ul>

Happy Sunday and welcome to our flagship editorial! What a week.The BoJ no longer has a firm guidance towards higher 10yr bond yields, the Fed accepted higher long bond yields as an excuse to pause and economic data has been abysmal.That cocktail has so far allowed the everything rally to thrive in a way we haven’t seen in quarters, but the feedback loop introduced by the big central banks may limit the scope of the bear market rally.

Steno Signals #72 – When a Recession Meets a Melt-Up in Equities and Bonds

<ul><li>Happy Sunday from a wet and cloudy Copenhagen! Market fears are back and the rising term premiums and real rates are making their way through cross asset moves.</li><li>The biggest question to ask right now is whether the pandemic altered the geopolitical and- financial playing field to an extent that will allow &gt;+2% real rates for the next 10-20 years and whether equity multiples can continue to live in a QE world if QE is no longer a thing.</li><li>The repricing of cross asset trends due to rising real rates may not be over yet.</li></ul>

Happy Sunday from a wet and cloudy Copenhagen! Market fears are back and the rising term premiums and real rates are making their way through cross asset moves.The biggest question to ask right now is whether the pandemic altered the geopolitical and- financial playing field to an extent that will allow &gt;+2% real rates for the next 10-20 years and whether equity multiples can continue to live in a QE world if QE is no longer a thing.The repricing of cross asset trends due to rising real rates may not be over yet.

Steno Signals #71 – A First Taste of the Recession Sell-Off?

<ul><li>Welcome to our weekly Portfolio Watch! Every week, we assess the risk/reward across asset classes and explain our decisions in our own portfolio.</li><li>We once again note the great diversification effects from Energy over the past week.</li><li>Front month Nat Gas has been on the move in the US despite relatively weak flow data, which is a strong harbinger of an improving underlying demand dynamic in the industrial sector due to the tick-up in orders books in cyclical- and energy intensive sectors such as Chemicals.</li></ul>

Welcome to our weekly Portfolio Watch! Every week, we assess the risk/reward across asset classes and explain our decisions in our own portfolio.We once again note the great diversification effects from Energy over the past week.Front month Nat Gas has been on the move in the US despite relatively weak flow data, which is a strong harbinger of an improving underlying demand dynamic in the industrial sector due to the tick-up in orders books in cyclical- and energy intensive sectors such as Chemicals.

Portfolio Watch: Equities Running Out of Gas?

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Steno Signals #75 – The 2007/2008 Playbook Is Useful Again

The soft landing narrative has seen material tailwinds over the past 6-8 weeks, while the recession narrative is fading fast.

Steno Research

Macro Regime Indicator: Heavy Long in Cyclical FX

We anticipate consistent QT in both USDs and EURs in the forthcoming month. On a 3-month time frame, and given the assumed conditions, our model...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #72 – When a Recession Meets a Melt-Up in Equities and Bonds

The BoJ no longer has a firm guidance towards higher 10yr bond yields, the Fed accepted higher long bond yields as an excuse to pause and economic...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #71 – A First Taste of the Recession Sell-Off?

The biggest question to ask right now is whether the pandemic altered the geopolitical and- financial playing field to an extent that will allow...

Steno Research

Portfolio Watch: Equities Running Out of Gas?

Front month Nat Gas has been on the move in the US despite relatively weak flow data, which is a strong harbinger of an improving underlying demand...

Steno Research

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